I don't think Obama would do that much better than Biden, certainly not cross 400 electoral votes. Clinton might have trouble to turn out the Democratic base because of his record, which is out of step with the Democrats today.
Also, I think Trump would win bigger over Dubya in a primary. The Republican Party is done with the Bushes.
Biden actually shouldn't be included as the title says "former presidents".
Fair point on Biden, I'll correct it to Presidents.
You could be right on Bush.
I think Clinton would win the Democratic base vote against Trump because it's Trump. He's not Hillary, he would say the right things.
As far as Obama, my thinking here is that Obama would have the same coalition as Biden, only the coalition would be stronger.
Consider exit polling comparing Obama's 2012 numbers Vs. Biden 2020 in Ohio:
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-ohio.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html Obama won 55% of women, Biden won 51%
Obama won 96% of black voters, Biden won 91%
Obama won 63% of voters ages 18-29, Biden won 57%
Obama won 51% in suburbs, Biden won 43%
Now, you can point to Trump being stronger than Romney with white working-class voters and running up the score in rural counties, but Obama would likely outperform Biden with that cohort while still doing better with the folks I mentioned above. In particular, he'd have had an even higher turnout with the 18-29 demographic that has been key to Democratic successes.
I appreciate the feedback, just explaining why I came to these conclusions.
