2028 - AOC (Progressive) v. Harris (Democratic) v. Haley (Republican) v. Hawley (America First)

[Meatball Slayer]

Discuss.

Inspired by a recent post regarding how internally split the Democrats and, especially the GOP are.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I feel the split would hurt Rs more than Ds. Ds are more united generally but in many states that Harris would have a solid base in, AOC would be a non-factor (especially in the deep south) while Hawley and Haley split the R vote heavily. Here's a (very bad) rough map for a "best case 3rd parties" scenario



AOC Base: White liberals, progressive minorities
Harris Base: Minorities, establishment D types, some suburbanites
Haley Base: Suburbanites, establishment R types, some hispanic voting groups
Hawley Base: Rural white ultraconservatives, evangelicals

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Harris would win because AOC would get less than 10% of the vote (Democrats fall in line) whereas Hawley would do slightly better than Haley but it would be about even.

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't see AOC running against a Dem nationwide, after all she's become more mainstream in recent years. Assuming it still was the case, I think Hawley would take more votes from the GOP ticket and AOC takes from Dems. Latter wouldn't win a state.



✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA): 314 EVs.; 46.2%
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Senator John Thune (R-SD): 173 EVs.; 37.4%
Senator Josh Hawley (AF-MO)/Representative Byron Donalds (AI-FL): 51 EVs.; 10.1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (P-NY)/Former State Rep. Lee Carter (P-VA): 0 EVs.; 5.0%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I don't see AOC running against a Dem nationwide, after all she's become more mainstream in recent years. Assuming it still was the case, I think Hawley would take more votes from the GOP ticket and AOC takes from Dems. Latter wouldn't win a state.



✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA): 314 EVs.; 46.2%
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Senator John Thune (R-SD): 173 EVs.; 37.4%
Senator Josh Hawley (AF-MO)/Representative Byron Donalds (AI-FL): 51 EVs.; 10.1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (P-NY)/Former State Rep. Lee Carter (P-VA): 0 EVs.; 5.0%

Mostly agree but not sure how Hawley wins that many states with only 10% nationwide.