Can the GOP win Oregon in 2026

[Samof94]

Can the GOP win in Oregon in 2026??? I imagine they could do so during a D midterm but even then, it'd be tricky.

[Sir Mohamed]

Unlikely. They couldn't even do it in 2022 and Dems this time will have an incumbent running for reelection. Seems like 43-44% is the GOP ceiling here, which isn't enough for a flip. Kotek may win by single digits again, I just struggle to see her losing unless there's a dramatic shift of events.

[Oryxslayer]

History tells us that Oregon governors tend to end up with low but still net favorable approvals when reelection comes around.  That last point is crucial,  because while the GOP are constantly able to mount a campaign more viable than a presidential one, they can close the gap.

 In some ways, this History can be blamed on two things: Large numbers of White Democrats,  and Republican division. The former is important because even in midterms,  this growing population will reliability turn out. This means weak but not negative approval ratings are still electable,  compared to say Sisloak in Nevada. The second is well documented. The GOP east of the cascades is a early adopter for whatever can deepen a wedge with the west. Whereas parts of the west Oregon Republican electorate and especially those federal Dem voters a candidate needs to win prefer only limited association with the east at best.  Bridging this is never easy or productive to the campaign,  but it needs to be done.

This isn't to say the GOP can't win, but Kotek or whomever else comes in the future will need to probably be really unpopular.

[Sestak]

Can the GOP win Oregon in 2002
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2006
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2010
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2014
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2018
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2022
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2026 (You are here)
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2030
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2034
Can the GOP win Oregon in 2038

[Vosem]

Given a Democratic midterm, sure, probably. Inasmuch as the Trump-era pattern of shrinking places trending Republican and growing places trending Democratic still applies, Oregon extremely rapidly transitioned from being a growing place to being a shrinking place when COVID hit (to the point that it's now projected to lose the House seat it just gained in 2030). Oregon gubernatorial elections are persistently very close (they've all been within single-digits starting in 2002, yes including very strong Democratic years like 2006/2018), even though there are few persuadable voters, so it's the sort of place that could also flip if you just see a large enough Republican turnout advantage.

[Sol]

Unlike national elections, both parties have a somewhat robust ability to win gubernatorial elections even in pretty harsh turf. In the past 10 years, Republicans won a governor's race in Maryland twice -- if that doesn't demonstrate this nothing else will. Republicans haven't won OR-Gov recently but that doesn't mean they can't.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the Oregon GOP was competent , sure but that’s a massive if . The Oregon GOP has generally been pretty incompetent this century which is why they ended up losing in 2002, 2010, 2022 and there is no indication that it will change .

The fact Kotek was able to get away with tying Drazan to Kate Brown on anything is astonishing and further shows how incompetent the state party is .

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yeah they def can, but I wouldn't say they are favored to do so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

They couldn't do it in 2022 with some of the most favorable circumstances possible. So while one should never say never, the GOP will remain the underdogs. Kotek is going to need to be even more unpopular than Brown and maybe get another third party challenge that is even more of a presence than Johnson was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[Ferguson97]

No.