2024: Here We Go Again

[Yelnoc]

September 2023

CONGRESS
Mitch McConnell freezes publicly for the third time in as many months. A few days later in a written press release, he announces he is stepping down from his role as Senate Minority Leader, a position he first held in 2007. The contest to replace him began immediately, with the “Three Johns” (John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and John Barrasso of Wyoming) maneuvering for support. Ultimately, John Cornyn won the contest and was named Leader of the Senate Republican Conference and thus Senate Minority Leader, just in time to see through budget negotiations. Cornyn is a known as a prolific fundraiser, with perhaps the strongest donor network outside of Mitch McConnell.

Congress passed another continuing resolution on the federal budget just before the latest deadline of September 30th. This agreement will fund the government through the end of December, creating a new Government Shutdown Watch deadline of January 1st, 2024. Budget watchers see this new date as the “real deadline,” in part due to a provision in the last budget compromise which stipulated that if no agreement was reached by January 1st, an across-the-board cut of 1% would automatically be enacted in the Federal Budget. The Congressional Freedom Caucus drew a line in the sand in a statement aimed at Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, demanding severe cuts to the budget, including to Social Security, in exchange for their support.

TRUMP TRIAL-WATCH
New developments in Trump’s Georgia RICO case regarding his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results in the states. Three of his co-defendants; former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, former Justice Official Jeffrey Clark, and former Georgia GOP Chair David Shafer; had requests that their trials be separated from the main RICO case and moved to Federal court. The presiding judge denied those requests. All three defendants have appealed the decision, a process that will take several months to resolve. Trump has also filed a motion to have his case moved to Federal court and is awaiting a ruling. These motions make it highly unlikely that the Georgia case will start in March of 2024, as prosecutor Fani Willis desires.

ECONOMIC NEWS
Following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting on the 20th, Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Federal Funds rate would remain unchanged at 5.25-5.5%. However, Powell warned that there may be further hikes in the future, as US inflation continues to creep upward. The stock market appeared to have priced in the pause, and reacted negatively to talk of further hikes, the S&P 500 closing down 2.5%.

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
The second GOP debate was held on September 27th at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California and broadcast on Fox Business, Rumble, and Univision. Ron Desantis stumbled early, trying and failing to speak to Univision viewers in Spanish; Vivek Ramaswamy took the opportunity to roast the (after-Trump) front-runner as a phony. However, Ramaswamy soon suffered his own misstep. Asked about term limits, the young(ish) candidate took aim at the “gerontocracy” and called out Mitch McConnell by name, earning raucous boos from the GOP audience. Pence and Haley carried on their duel on abortion from last debate, with neither landing a particularly memorable blow. Tim Scott either sailed above the fray or went under the radar, depending on who you ask. Doug Burgum was also there. Asa Hutchinson was not.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Dude good to see you again! Great start!

[Yelnoc]

Dude good to see you again! Great start!

Thank you, same to you!

[Yelnoc]

October 2023

OFF-CYCLE ELECTIONS
Louisiana goes to the polls on October 14th in a jungle primary. The top two vote-getters, Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry and Democratic Candidate Shawn Wilson, make it through to the run-off election next month. Voter turnout was perhaps effected by severe storms as Hurricane Philippe traveled west; fortunately the system missed hitting the state directly.

NATURAL DISASTERS
The most damaging cyclone of the 2023 season hit Port St Lucie on October 7th. Hurricane Philippe cane ashore as category four hurricane, causing widespread damage to lives and property as it battered the seaside community with severe winds and flooding. Nearly 100 people perished as a result of the storm. Philippe continued west, causing major damage in Sarasota on Florida’s gulf coast, before settling over the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. There, the storm reformed and regained its westward speed, ultimately making a second landfall as a Category 3 hurricane just north of Corpus Christie, devastating the small community of Rockport, Texas.

October also saw the historic North American fire season draw to a close. The tragic Maui fire which destroyed the town of Lāhainā in early August and killed hundreds would be the most devastating of the year. The Canadian wildfires which prompted evacuations across British Columbia and the Northwest Territories, most notably from Yellowknife, also deserve a mention. In the southern hemisphere, Australia has already begun experiencing “catastrophic” wildfires, an ominous sign for an imminent fire season that experts predict may be worse than the “Black Summer” of 2019-20.

ECONOMIC NEWS
The pause on student loan payments which began with the COVID-19 pandemic over three years ago ended this month. Borrowers across the country made their first payments in recent memory on October 18. Speculation abounds that the resumption of student loan payments may lead to a reduction in consumer spending. Whether that is a bad thing or good thing comes down to whether the pundit is more concerned with a recession or inflation.

What is clear is that the US economy is not yet anywhere near a recession. Preliminary GDP figures for the third quarter (July-September) reported barn-busting growth of 4.5%, well above trend (previous quarters growth hovered around 2%). Whether this remarkable Q3 growth is an aberration or a sign of a sustained economic surge remains to be seen.

[Yelnoc]

November 2023

ECONOMIC NEWS
The Federal Reserve surprised the markets at it’s November policy meeting, electing to raise the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 5.5-5.75%. The committee’s decision was based on sticky high inflation, particularly in the services sector, and an economy that continues to burn red hot, fueling fears that inflation could continue to run higher. Chairman Powell emphasized that the board’s decisions are data-driven, and that they will be assessing actively ahead of the December meeting.

The decision came as a shock to financial markets. The stock market dropped precipitously, entering “bear” territory by the end of the month (e.g. down by 20% from the previous high). Meanwhile, Bond yields, including those of US treasuries, shot up significantly. The spike in treasuries implies a continued rise in US borrowing costs, raising the ire of deficit hawks ahead of another budget showdown next month.

TRUMP TRIAL-WATCH
Trump’s Georgia RICO case continues to generate headlines. Ex-Trump Attorneys Kenneth Cheseboro and Sidney Powell, each of whom had requested speedy trials, were found guilty in Georgia State Court. Both appealed their convictions to the Eleventh District Court, arguing that their activities were “wholly separate” and therefore that they should not have been tried together. This amounts a challenge to the Georgia RICO statute, under which the extended, Trump-centric case is being prosecuted.

OFF-CYCLE ELECTIONS
Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron upset incumbent Governor Andy Beshear in photo finish, with neither candidate quite garnering 50% of the vote. This is an ominous sign for the Democrats, as for the past decade the winner of the party that won the Kentucky AG election has gone on to win the Presidency. Meanwhile in Mississippi, incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves Coasted to Reelection. Two weeks later, Jeff Landry won the governor’s race in Louisiana, completing the Republican sweep.

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
The third GOP presidential debate was held on November 8th at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Public reactions to this debate were generally negative, with several outlets describing it as a “snoozefest.” Polling conducted immediately afterwards indicated that voters find Ramaswamy’s attempts to channel Trump’s confrontational outsider swagger off-putting, while DeSantis continues to creep out average voters. Nikki Haley continues to build a bit of momentum, drawing neck-and-neck with DeSantis for the title of runner-up to Trump. Asa Hutchinson, failing to qualify for the second debate in a row, bowed to reality and suspended his campaign; the anti-Trump stalwart endorsed Chris Christie as the only other never(ish)-Trumper in the field.

RCP Post-Debate Polling Average
Donald Trump – 47%
Ron DeSantis – 14%
Nikki Haley – 13%
Tim Scott – 9%
Vivek Ramaswamy – 6%
Mike Pence – 5%
Chris Christie – 4%
Doug Burgum – 1%
Others – 1%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Feels very realistic, I could easily see Haley overtaking DeSantis at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

November 2023

ECONOMIC NEWS
The Federal Reserve surprised the markets at it’s November policy meeting, electing to raise the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 5.5-5.75%. The committee’s decision was based on sticky high inflation, particularly in the services sector, and an economy that continues to burn red hot, fueling fears that inflation could continue to run higher. Chairman Powell emphasized that the board’s decisions are data-driven, and that they will be assessing actively ahead of the December meeting.

The decision came as a shock to financial markets. The stock market dropped precipitously, entering “bear” territory by the end of the month (e.g. down by 20% from the previous high). Meanwhile, Bond yields, including those of US treasuries, shot up significantly. The spike in treasuries implies a continued rise in US borrowing costs, raising the ire of deficit hawks ahead of another budget showdown next month.

TRUMP TRIAL-WATCH
Trump’s Georgia RICO case continues to generate headlines. Ex-Trump Attorneys Kenneth Cheseboro and Sidney Powell, each of whom had requested speedy trials, were found guilty in Georgia State Court. Both appealed their convictions to the Eleventh District Court, arguing that their activities were “wholly separate” and therefore that they should not have been tried together. This amounts a challenge to the Georgia RICO statute, under which the extended, Trump-centric case is being prosecuted.

OFF-CYCLE ELECTIONS
Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron upset incumbent Governor Andy Beshear in photo finish, with neither candidate quite garnering 50% of the vote. This is an ominous sign for the Democrats, as for the past decade the winner of the party that won the Kentucky AG election has gone on to win the Presidency. Meanwhile in Mississippi, incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves Coasted to Reelection. Two weeks later, Jeff Landry won the governor’s race in Louisiana, completed the Republican sweep.

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
The third GOP presidential debate was held on November 8th at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Public reactions to this debate were generally negative, with several outlets describing it as a “snoozefest.” Polling conducted immediately afterwards indicated that voters find Ramaswamy’s attempts to channel Trump’s confrontational outsider swagger off-putting, while DeSantis continues to creep out average voters. Nikki Haley continues to build a bit of momentum, drawing neck-and-neck with DeSantis for the title of runner-up to Trump. Asa Hutchinson, failing to qualify for the second debate in a row, bowed to reality and suspended his campaign; the anti-Trump stalwart endorsed Chris Christie as the only other never(ish)-Trumper in the field.

RCP Post-Debate Polling Average
Donald Trump – 47%
Ron DeSantis – 14%
Nikki Haley – 13%
Tim Scott – 9%
Vivek Ramaswamy – 6%
Mike Pence – 5%
Chris Christie – 4%
Doug Burgum – 1%
Others – 1%

What exactly happened in Kentucky?

[Yelnoc]

What exactly happened in Kentucky?

I think it's a coin flip irl, I thought a Republican win here would set the mood for the timeline.

[Yelnoc]

December 2023

ECONOMIC NEWS
The S&P 500 reached its low point in the Autumn bear market, touching 3,230 points intra-day on November 7th, a level last seen in the summer of 2020. On the 13th, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced another pause in interest rate hikes, this time indicating that the Federal Funds Rate would stay level at 5.5-5.75% for some time. This dovish announcement sparked a stock market rally that broke S&P out of bear territory by Christmas. The S&P had recovered to 3,700 points by December 29th.

TRUMP TRIAL-WATCH
The Eleventh District Court declines to hear appeals from Ex-Trump Attorneys Kenneth Cheseboro and Sidney Powell. This decision upholds the legality of Georgia’s RICO statute and the soundness of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willi’s case against Trump and his co-conspirators to overturn the 2020 election results and Georgia. Both Cheseboro and Powell are sentenced to 7.5 years in prison, with the possibility of parole, an ominous sign for the other seventeen co-defendents.

That is the bad news for Trump. In better news, the Georgia trial’s start date continues to be pushed back. Willis’s initial start date of March 4th is old news; now the AG is pushing for a June start date, but that may well overlap with Trump’s separate Federal “documents” case which is slated to start on May 20th. Many legal observers are skeptical that the trial will begin in 2024 at all, as jury selection in the case is only now getting underway. If the other ongoing Georgia RICO case—against rapper Young Thug and is record label/criminal organization YSL—is anything to judge by, jury selection alone could take the better part of a year to complete.

CONGRESS
Negotiations on the federal budget go down to the wire again, with the threat of a government shutdown looming. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy spent most of the month pushing for a severe austerity package supported by the hard right Freedom Caucus, a proposal which drew headlines for its proposed cuts to Social Security. In the final week, McCarthy and allies reached a deal with House Democrats on a compromise which left Social Security unchanged while enacting significant spending reductions in other areas.

This deal caused a revolt on his right flank, with Freedom Caucus members and fellow-travelers, lead by the firebrand representative Jim Jordan, claiming to have been “stabbed in the back” by “RINO leadership” decision to leave Social Security untouched. With the defections mounting, McCarthy was ultimately forced to pass the proposal in the eleventh hour with Democratic backing. The senate quickly passed the compromise and President Biden signed it into law before midnight, averting a government shutdown. However, Liberal Democrats decried the spending cuts as unnecessary, punitive to working people, and likely to contribute to a recession.

[Yelnoc]

January 2024 (First Two Weeks)

CONGRESS
Following the McCarthy’s “betrayal” in the budget negotiations, Hard Right Republicans led by the Freedom Caucus called for a new election for Speaker of the House. The first ballot went: Hakeem Jeffries – 213, Kevin McCarthy – 167, Jim Jordan – 45. Subsequent ballots saw little change, and with no candidate reaching a majority of 218, the House adjourned for the evening. The following day, Steve Scalise, the lead Republican Whip, was elected to the Speakership. Though a strong conservative himself, he is seen as compromise by the Freedom Caucus, who preferred outspoken the Representative Jim Jordan.

TRUMP TRIAL WATCH
Trump co-defendants in the Georgia RICO case; Mark Meadows, Jeffrey Clark, and David Shafer; have their appeals on severing their cases and removing them to federal court denied. Leaked court documents indicate that three co-defendants; Scott Hall, Misty Hampton, and Shawn Still; are cooperating with prosecutors in Georgia 2020 Election RICO case, an ominous sign for Trump.

Two other ongoing Georgia RICO cases draw national attention. In the case centering around rapper Young Thug and his record label/criminal organization YSL, jury selection has finally concluded after dragging on for a year. Meanwhile, the RICO case against Stop Cop City protesters continues to plod forward towards trial. This latter case draws little national commentary, despite its far ranging implications for grassroots political movements should the defendants be convicted of racketeering.

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
The fifth Republican presidential debate was held in Ames, IA just a few days ahead of the Iowa Caucuses. Nikki Haley stood center stage, the beneficiary of a recent rise in the polls, flanked by flagging Ron DeSantis and fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott. She found herself the target of a barrage of attacks from outsider Vivek Ramaswamy as well as abortion fundamentalist Mike Pence. Haley weathered the storm well enough, and post-debate focus groups and polling gave her high marks.

RCP Post-Debate Polling Average
Donald Trump – 39%
Nikki Haley – 19%
Tim Scott – 10%
Ron DeSantis – 9%
Vivek Ramaswamy – 8%
Mike Pence – 6%
Chris Christie – 6%
Doug Burgum – 2%
Others – 1%

[Zedonathin2020]

How did the fourth GOP debate go?

[Yelnoc]

How did the fourth GOP debate go?

The 4th GOP Debate was held December 13th between the following candidates DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Pence, Scott, Christie, Burgum. The debate was so boring and inconsequential that it was quickly buried in the news cycle, and yours truly forgot to write some prose for it (sorry!).

[Yelnoc]

1/15 – IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES

Donald Trump – 35%
Nikki Haley – 33%
Mike Pence – 9%
Tim Scott – 7%
Vivek Ramaswamy – 6%
Chris Christie – 5%
Ron DeSantis – 4%
Doug Burgum – 1%

Iowa caucus goers proved most sensitive to the Haley-mentum, with many supporters of also-rans who were looking for a Trump alternative reading the room at their local gymnasium and jumping into the former South Carolina Governor’s camp. Trump did still pull of a victory, yet the story in the press was one of missed expectations. The chatter in the pundit class was that Trump’s legal troubles were starting to weigh him down. Indeed, a growing number of Republican voters over the fall expressed concern on this topic in a variety of polls, with less than half saying they would vote for the former president were he convicted on RICO statutes and running from prison. Despite Trump’s furious insistence that he had won, that he had won by “really good margins, actually,” a new narrative was beginning to build—that the Teflon Don was no longer bullet-proof.

Following the results, Mike Pence and Tim Scott dropped out and endorsed Haley for president. Vivek Ramaswamy also dropped out but chose instead to endorse Trump, the only remaining “based” candidate in his words. Doug Burgum suspended his campaign as well—if he endorsed anyone, that failed to make headlines. Ron DeSantis vowed to carry the fight to New Hampshire, though whether even he still thought he had a shot was up in the air. Haley held a raucous victory party (as raucous as her lane of country club Republicans get, anyway) and promised the crowd more victories, touting in particular South Carolina which, fortuitously for her, is just around the corner on the primary calendar. Will Haley-mentum continue?

[Meatball Slayer]

My opinion on what happens next:

[Roll Roons]

What's the status of the other three trials?

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Following, this is an excellent, plausible and well-written timeline. Thank you!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Following, this is an excellent, plausible and well-written timeline. Thank you!

I know, it's a very realistic take on the future so far!

[Pres Mike]

My opinion on what happens next:

How does Haley stay in the race after losing her home state?

[Yelnoc]

I'm glad you guys like it! I will be doing some more writing this weekend so that I have posts in the can for next week. Stay tuned!

[Yelnoc]

On To New Hampshire

TRUMP SHOCKS THE NATION, APPEARS ON NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATE STAGE
Haley was flummoxed, Christie silenced, the crowd made insatiable by Trump’s surprise appearance. Trump tore into Haley, his main challenger for the nomination after Iowa. DeSantis awkwardly tried to defend Haley, pointing to her supposedly delicate womanhood, only to eviscerated by Haley and Trump in quick succession. The Florida Governor had little else to say for the remainder of the debate, and his early blunder was the source of a stock of new memes for 2024. Christie, trying to match Trump’s showmanship with his own brand of New Jersey rudeness, was absolutely eviscerated by a candidate who, whatever his flaws, clearly still had it.

The Haley and Christie campaigns were absolutely furious with the debate organizers for allowing Trump to strut on stage with apparently no forewarning. That said, the decision was great for ratings; from here on out American voters would watch the Republican primaries with increased interest. TV stations and advertisers, despite their frequent liberal sympathies, were quietly quite pleased with Trump’s return to the campaign trail.

NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS (1/23)
Donald Trump – 44%
Nikki Haley – 29%
Chris Christie – 21%
Ron DeSantis – 6%

Trump won New Hampshire by even larger margins than Iowa. Trump tried to spin this win as a bounce back moment for his campaign. Skeptics, however, pointed out that the majority of New Hampshire primary goers cast their votes for non-Trump candidates. Christie and DeSantis both bowed to donor pressure to drop out and rally between Haley—Christie gracefully, DeSantis grudgingly. All eyes turned to South Carolina, where Haley, former governor the Palmetto State, would make her stand against the former president in a month.

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS (1/23)
Joe Biden – 68%
RFK, Jr. - 21%
M. Williamson – 11%

Though little watched, there was also a Democratic Presidential primary that same day in New Hampshire. Incumbent president Joe Biden trounced the field, as expected. That said, his victory was weaker than typical of an incumbent president and symptomatic perhaps of his weakness as a candidate. The president’s favorables have been significantly underwater for basically his entire term, he has presiding over a weakening economy marred by slow growth and high inflation, and the 81 year old is widely believed to be neither fully cogent nor in control of his own administration. While Biden faces no true threat in the Democratic primaries, his weakness has prompted political opportunists such as those at the “centrist” third party organization No Labels to watch these developments with a keen eye.

LATE JANUARY ECONOMIC NEWS
As if to underscore Biden's weakness, immediately following the New Hampshire primary negative economic reports hit the news cycle.

25th – Preliminary Figures Indicate US Economy Slowed down in the 4th Quarter – Q4’23 GDP, 1.8%
31st – Federal Reserve continues to pause, holding top Fed Funds rate at 5.75%

Stocks, which had been stuck sideways since briefly giving up some of the Christmas Rally gains around New Years, suddenly plummeted. Additional economic data indicated the much-anticipated "landing" was here, and Q1'24 economic data may not be as "soft" as hoped.

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (2/3)
Joe Biden – 81%
RFK, Jr. - 10%
M. Williamson – 9%

The negative economic news did not have any effect on the Democratic primary, which was completely uncompetive in South Carolina. RFK suspended his campaign after this crushing defeat, shortly thereafter taking on a role as a “liberal” pundit on Fox News and other conservative media outlets. Williamson vowed to continued her campaign, declaring that Americans “deserved a choice" (whatever that means).

[Yelnoc]

Next Stop: Nevada

NEVADA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (2/6)
Joe Biden – 73%
M. Williamson – 27%

With RFK out, Williamson consolidated the anti-Biden protest vote. While Biden won comfortably again, his evident failure to sail through the primaries was clearly making his advisors frustrated. A campaign to paint Williamson as a dangerous radical who threatened to weaken the party ahead of the Most Important Election of Our Lifetime, the Vote To Keep Trump From Returning to the Oval Office, kicked off in earnest from this point.

GOP DEBATE: TRUMP VS. HALEY
The Republican Primary is now a two horse race, Trump vs the anti-Trump. The debate in Nevada put this dynamic in sharp focus. While the two candidates were asked questions about the issues of the day, the conduct of the debate posed the audience a question of aethetics. Haley played the part of the statesmen, doing her best to not be goaded by Trump and appear “Presidential” in the old sense. Trump, meanwhile, was his old self, launching barb after barb at his counterpart. The question: would Republican primary voters prefer a statesman or a showman?

NEVADA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (2/8)
Trump – 56
Haley – 44

In Nevada at least, Republicans preferred the showman. To some, this result put the lie to the theory that Trump only won in 2016 because of the divided field. The Haley campaign however maintained their optimism. They had poured all their organization into South Carolina, leaving Nevada largely to third party PACs operated by allies. They insisted that the real test would be two weeks later in Haley’s home state.

IN OTHER NEWS...
Two Year Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (2/23)
Various retrospectives hit the media on this inauspicious date. Opinion polling shows that US public support for arming Ukraine has dropped significantly since the war began two years ago. This comes ahead of a planned Ukrainian Spring Offensive, after last year’s summer offensive failed to achieve more than modest territorial gains. The Biden administration remains publicly committed to backing the Zelensky government, though there are whispers that if the coming spring offensive fails, NATO support may begin to dry up as western economies begin to struggle and public support wanes.

No Labels Buzz Builds
Buzz around a potential third party presidential campaign sponsored by the “centrist” organization No Labels has been building through the early primaries. The general election is shaping up to be contested by two uniquely weak candidates. The Democratic incumbent is personally unpopular, ancient, and presiding over an economy which economists warn may be entering a recession. His weakness is indicated by the ongoing primary, where Marianne Williamson, a candidate generally regarding as well-meaning crank, is pulling a quarter of the vote.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party primaries, which many expected to be a coronation of the former president have turned into a slug-fest. No matter who wins, the Republican nominee will likely be uniquely weak in the general election. Should Haley pull off the upset, she may face depressed base turnout, as Trump has cultivated a set of voters who are personally loyal to him rather than the Republican Party. However, should Trump clinch the nomination for the third time in a row, his fall campaign will be dogged by four separate criminal trials which even the most anti-Biden suburban voter may consider a dealbreaker.

It is into this chaos that No Labels threatens to insert itself. The group is the latest iteration of a coalition of beltway consultants and shadowy donors who for just about every presidential cycle in the past twenty years have threatened to a run a “moderate” for president, should the right conditions be met. What they conditions are, who these organizers represent, and what the people behind No Labels really want is an open question. Whoever they are, they are well funded. By February, No Labels has secured ballot access in 40+ states. Should they run a candidate, they have the infrastructure to pose a serious threat.

This year is also unique in that politicians with national profiles are flirting with using the No Labels ballot line. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin had publicly flirted with a bid last year, but by winter had squashed the talk, declaring that he was “behind the President one hundred percent,” and committed to his reelection campaign, as doomed as that appears. Since then, buzz has been growing around, independent senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, ever a darling for the camera. Sinema is facing an uphill battle in a three-way race for reelection, and whispers in the media suggest she has been meeting quietly with No Labels organizers and may be seriously considering a presidential bid.

[Yelnoc]

TRUMPS WINS SOUTH CAROLINA BY THE SKIN OF HIS TEETH, DEFEATS HALEY 51-49
February 24, 2024
Haley vows to continue the fight to Super Tuesday, but her loss in South Carolina may be curtains for the anti-Trump effort within the Republican Party.
    • Trump Reacts: “what is she doing? She can’t even win her home state, I don’t understand it”
    • Inside the Haley campaign in South Carolina: What Went Wrong?
    • In the wake of Haley’s failure, Sinema’s star continues to rise

[Yelnoc]

TRUMP SWEEPS PRE-SUPER TUESDAY CONTESTS
March 2, 2024
Today’s caucus victories in Michigan, Idaho, and the Virgin Islands come on the heals of his 55-45 defeat of Haley in Michigan’s Primary last week.
    • Explainer: Why Michigan Republicans held both a Primary and a Caucuses
    • Super Tuesday Guide: The states that vote and why it matters
    • Biden Defeats Williamson 85-15 in Michigan

TRUMPS FIRST CRIMINAL TRIAL BEGINS IN D.C.
March 4, 2024
The federal trial over allegations that Trump conspired to overturn the results of the 2020 election began today in Washington, D.C. District Judge Tanya Chutkan gaveled the court into order at 9 AM this morning in…

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[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Currently trying to find my wallet to continue reading this timeline

[Yelnoc]

Currently trying to find my wallet to continue reading this timeline

Haha glad you like it! I should have another short update this evening.