Who wins the PA Supreme Court race in 2023?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race in 2023?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For some reason, the PA dems are the polar opposites of the Wisconsin dems when it comes to winning judicial races, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

See Wisconsin for your answer.

[windjammer]

The democrats because there is the philadelphia Mayoral race

[Tekken_Guy]

For some reason, the PA dems are the polar opposites of the Wisconsin dems when it comes to winning judicial races, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

You do know they have a majority, right?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For some reason, the PA dems are the polar opposites of the Wisconsin dems when it comes to winning judicial races, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

You do know they have a majority, right?

2015 was a slam dunk, but we’ve been losing statewide judicial races ever since.

[Vosem]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

[Tekken_Guy]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

[Mr.Phips]

The democrats because there is the philadelphia Mayoral race

Yes.  Have Democrats ever lost a Supreme Court race (excluding retention elections) in PA in a year that coincided with the Philly Mayoral race? 

[Skill and Chance]

For some reason, the PA dems are the polar opposites of the Wisconsin dems when it comes to winning judicial races, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

Yes, they had one banner year and blew everything else.  Only, in this case, the one banner year was enough to give them control since there were so many vacancies at once. 

[Tekken_Guy]

For some reason, the PA dems are the polar opposites of the Wisconsin dems when it comes to winning judicial races, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

Yes, they had one banner year and blew everything else.  Only, in this case, the one banner year was enough to give them control since there were so many vacancies at once. 

They blew an election in what was a horrible night for Democrats nationwide.

[Vosem]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

Mundy actually was an appointed incumbent in that race. And 2017 was a less polarized era than 2021 was and 2023 will be. Otherwise Brobson would have won by more than Mundy did because of the national environment.

Also the PA Democrats aren’t the party that’s in trouble in the state, otherwise we’d have Senator Oz and Governor Mastriano.

[Mr.Phips]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

Had there been a mayoral race in Philly and the associated higher turnout there, Dems almost certainly would have won that race.

[S019]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

So looking at some of these outright atrocious SEPA margins, how exactly do Democrats avoid getting destroyed by 10 pts statewide? Is there a massive crash in rural turnout to offset their disastrous Southeast margins?

[Duke of York]

The democrats because there is the philadelphia Mayoral race

I second this. When Philadelphia has its municipal elections Democrats tend to do well in judicial elections.

[Vosem]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

Mundy actually was an appointed incumbent in that race. And 2017 was a less polarized era than 2021 was and 2023 will be. Otherwise Brobson would have won by more than Mundy did because of the national environment.

Also the PA Democrats aren’t the party that’s in trouble in the state, otherwise we’d have Senator Oz and Governor Mastriano.

Kind of fair, but in general Democrats are much more reliant on organized efforts to keep up turnout than Republicans are, and so they seem more vulnerable to 'the state party here is very bad'. These organizations can sometimes be built in a short period of time (consider GA 2016/2018/2020), but they can also pretty quickly collapse if neglected (consider NV between 2012 and 2014, or FL over the past few cycles).

The democrats because there is the philadelphia Mayoral race

I second this. When Philadelphia has its municipal elections Democrats tend to do well in judicial elections.

Yeah, this is a fair point.

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

So looking at some of these outright atrocious SEPA margins, how exactly do Democrats avoid getting destroyed by 10 pts statewide? Is there a massive crash in rural turnout to offset their disastrous Southeast margins?

Yeah, a big part of the answer is that turnout in these is very disproportionately SEPA and suburban (which is part of how Republicans can get away with being fairly "moderate" and not losing a lot elsewhere). Obviously in a presidential/gubernatorial/Senatorial election Pennsylvania at R+4 and DelCo at D+1 would not coincide.

[Tekken_Guy]

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

Mundy actually was an appointed incumbent in that race. And 2017 was a less polarized era than 2021 was and 2023 will be. Otherwise Brobson would have won by more than Mundy did because of the national environment.

Also the PA Democrats aren’t the party that’s in trouble in the state, otherwise we’d have Senator Oz and Governor Mastriano.

Kind of fair, but in general Democrats are much more reliant on organized efforts to keep up turnout than Republicans are, and so they seem more vulnerable to 'the state party here is very bad'. These organizations can sometimes be built in a short period of time (consider GA 2016/2018/2020), but they can also pretty quickly collapse if neglected (consider NV between 2012 and 2014, or FL over the past few cycles).

The democrats because there is the philadelphia Mayoral race

I second this. When Philadelphia has its municipal elections Democrats tend to do well in judicial elections.

Yeah, this is a fair point.

Carluccio is a "good" candidate (comes from quite left-wing suburban areas, beat Trumpy types in the primary surprisingly comfortably) and PA Democrats have kind of a bad record at these, most recently in 2021. I'll say Carluccio, but I don't think we've had one of these post-Dobbs and my feel for what the environment is is not very good. In MI/WI, Democrats running for the Supreme Court have run double-digits ahead of Democrats running for other positions.

Brobson won by the skin of his teeth on Democrats’ worst electoral night nationally since Trump was elected, thanks to strong overperformances in the Philly collar counties. He won Bucks, lost Chester by single digits, nearly hit 40 in Montgomery, and even came within 11 points of winning Delaware. If Carluccio does even slightly worse than Brobson here, she’s done.

In 2017 -- so approximately at the least popular moment of Trump's Presidency -- a candidate with a background much like Carluccio's came within a point of winning Chester and Delaware (and the environment in 2017 was definitely worse for the GOP than it is now). And no, she was not an incumbent. A lot of the PA down-ballot stuff is just realigning incredibly slowly, and the state party generally has a lot of problems.

The real question mark, though, is that all of this stuff was pre-Dobbs.

(Note that the 2017 race was only a 4-point Republican victory, and Brobson won by only 1 point -- because in addition to this stuff there's still lots of leftover rural Democratic support that's been long gone in races that aren't judicial.)

So looking at some of these outright atrocious SEPA margins, how exactly do Democrats avoid getting destroyed by 10 pts statewide? Is there a massive crash in rural turnout to offset their disastrous Southeast margins?

Yeah, a big part of the answer is that turnout in these is very disproportionately SEPA and suburban (which is part of how Republicans can get away with being fairly "moderate" and not losing a lot elsewhere). Obviously in a presidential/gubernatorial/Senatorial election Pennsylvania at R+4 and DelCo at D+1 would not coincide.

The Philly mayoral race will be a huge asset for McCaffery here. In 2019, Kenney won by nearly 180,000 votes. For comparison, Woodruff only netted 120,000 out of Philly in 2017, and McLaughlin won the city by 140,000 votes. Substituting the Philly numbers in the two court races with those of the mayoral race slash Woodruff's 90k deficit in half, and actually would have had McLaughlin squeak it out by 13,000 votes.

Obviously the big thing to watch is the Philly collar. Will this be the cycle the bottom falls out for judicial Republicans and results start to converge with standard presidential partisanship?

[wbrocks67]

People who talk about 2017 need to make sure they have their faces straight. Mundy was essentially an incumbent, because she was appointed by Wolf (D) - so she had his blessings of sorts, which basically gave a lot of D-leaning folks permission to be okay with her. Also, as we saw with Pat Toomey, 2016-2017 of the PA suburbs is quite different than the 2023 PA suburbs. An R candidate would never be getting his margins now in most of the collar counties.

Also, anyone talking about 2021.... as some have stated, 2021 was actually contextually speaking not bad at all for Dems. Of course in totality we still lost the race, but the fact that Brobson only won by <1% in a terrible environment for Dems showed Dems strength imo.

Carluccio is already getting hammered for her abortion stances (that have been removed from her website) and being bankrolled by pro-life groups.

And yes, Philly's mayoral election will certainly help. But the collar counties should help too; I posted in the May 2023 primary thread but turnout was much better for Dems in places like Montgomery than it was for Reps, when usually (recently) its been closer to equal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

People who talk about 2017 need to make sure they have their faces straight. Mundy was essentially an incumbent, because she was appointed by Wolf (D) - so she had his blessings of sorts, which basically gave a lot of D-leaning folks permission to be okay with her. Also, as we saw with Pat Toomey, 2016-2017 of the PA suburbs is quite different than the 2023 PA suburbs. An R candidate would never be getting his margins now in most of the collar counties.

Also, anyone talking about 2021.... as some have stated, 2021 was actually contextually speaking not bad at all for Dems. Of course in totality we still lost the race, but the fact that Brobson only won by <1% in a terrible environment for Dems showed Dems strength imo.

Carluccio is already getting hammered for her abortion stances (that have been removed from her website) and being bankrolled by pro-life groups.

And yes, Philly's mayoral election will certainly help. But the collar counties should help too; I posted in the May 2023 primary thread but turnout was much better for Dems in places like Montgomery than it was for Reps, when usually (recently) its been closer to equal.

Ye, these were my thoughts as well. Only losing by 1% in a disasterous year for Dems is telling.