MS-Siena: Reeves +11

[MT Treasurer]

52% Tate Reeves (R-inc.)
41% Brandon Pressley (D)

Reeves favorability: 46/49 (-3)
Pressley favorability: 38/29 (+9)

August 20-28
658 likely voters

Republicans lead by 19 points in the AG contest (54-35) and by 23 in the SoS race (56-33).

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/09/01/tate-reeves-brandon-presley-august-poll/

[One Term Floridian]

Practically Safe R

[NewYorkExpress]

The amount of wild swings in the polling of this race is raising a lot of questions for me.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The amount of wild swings in the polling of this race is raising a lot of questions for me.

Nah that's what you would expect if polling was done honestly. The wild swings is actually a good sign that pollsters aren't herding, and thus the average is more likely to be reliable.



The idea is to take the average, which is about Reeves +7-8. Pressley has maybe a 15% chance of upset.

[Xing]

-3 favorability is not going to be bad enough to sink Reeves.

[2016]

-3 favorability is not going to be bad enough to sink Reeves.

Correct. Bevin was at -30 when he lost the KY-GOV Race in 2019.

LOL, that Internal Poll by Presley showing him tied you can now put in the trash can!

[SnowLabrador]

Reeves may not win by quite this much, but for all intents and purposes this is Safe R. It was never close. White Mississippi voters are extremely rigid in their voting patterns.

[sting in the rafters]

-3 favorability is not going to be bad enough to sink Reeves.

True, however 35% undecided in Presley’s favorables indicates a lack of name recognition. National Dems should provide funding for campaign ads during Ole Miss and MS State games, how much of a money-pit can it be?

[wbrocks67]

Interesting in here is 40% of Dems "very excited" to vote, only 29% of GOP are. Continues to show that there is actually an enthusiasm gap.... in the Dems favor. What's sinking Presley especially here is Independents, which apparently still lean very rightwing in MS. Reeves wins them by 13.

Pretty crazy however that when the two are pitted in most of the questions on "how would do a better job", they're basically even on everything except for the ridiculous question on transgender athletes. Shows people actually don't like Reeves, think Presley would do a good job, but partisanship is still winning at the end of the day.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting in here is 40% of Dems "very excited" to vote, only 29% of GOP are. Continues to show that there is actually an enthusiasm gap.... in the Dems favor. What's sinking Presley especially here is Independents, which apparently still lean very rightwing in MS. Reeves wins them by 13.

Pretty crazy however that when the two are pitted in most of the questions on "how would do a better job", they're basically even on everything except for the ridiculous question on transgender athletes. Shows people actually don't like Reeves, think Presley would do a good job, but partisanship is still winning at the end of the day.

This is also not a good sign for Beshear.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

[Skill and Chance]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

If it's accurate that Mississippians are about as concerned about transgender athletes as they are about Medicaid expansion(!) I don't know how Presley can overcome that.

[President Johnson]

I told y'all, it's not going to happen. Safe Republican. It's Mississippi after all, and once partisanship kicks in, Reevers is still the clear favorite even though he may not be that popular.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I told y'all, it's not going to happen. Safe Republican. It's Mississippi after all, and once partisanship kicks in, Reevers is still the clear favorite even though he may not be that popular.

As I said polls aren't end all be all all it's voting that counts but OSR post this poll and Cameron is losing by 8 in KY

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

If it's accurate that Mississippians are about as concerned about transgender athletes as they are about Medicaid expansion(!) I don't know how Presley can overcome that.

Talk about being a text book example of democrats idea of a republican lol

[MT Treasurer]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

Well, as others have pointed out, Pressley has room to grow his surprisingly poor name ID via ads/appearances in every county in the last two months, but I never denied that Reeves could win. I’d just be very surprised if this was worse than a mid-single digit loss for Pressley — that might signal a very bad national environment for Ds, especially if Beshear goes down on the same night.

I will also say that Tate Reeves is incredibly lucky that an extremely unpopular Democrat is in the White House — again, he’s greatly aided by national Democrats in his race, just like he was in 2019 with Trump's impeachment.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

Well, as others have pointed out, Pressley has room to grow his surprisingly poor name ID via ads/appearances in every county in the last two months, but I never denied that Reeves could win. I’d just be very surprised if this was worse than a mid-single digit loss for Pressley — that might signal a very bad national environment for Ds, especially if Beshear goes down on the same night.

I will also say that Tate Reeves is incredibly lucky that an extremely unpopular Democrat is in the White House — again, he’s greatly aided by national Democrats in his race, just like he was in 2019 with Trump's impeachment.

It doesn't mean much for 2024 if Republicans are able to eke out wins in solidly Republican states. It's much more candidate specific.

My current prediction is something like Reeves +8, Beshear +2, but I'm open to changing when the data does.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

Well, as others have pointed out, Pressley has room to grow his surprisingly poor name ID via ads/appearances in every county in the last two months, but I never denied that Reeves could win. I’d just be very surprised if this was worse than a mid-single digit loss for Pressley — that might signal a very bad national environment for Ds, especially if Beshear goes down on the same night.

I will also say that Tate Reeves is incredibly lucky that an extremely unpopular Democrat is in the White House — again, he’s greatly aided by national Democrats in his race, just like he was in 2019 with Trump's impeachment.

It doesn't mean much for 2024 if Republicans are able to eke out wins in solidly Republican states. It's much more candidate specific.

My current prediction is something like Reeves +8, Beshear +2, but I'm open to changing when the data does.

Beshear is up 8 not 2 sorry

[Dave Hedgehog]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

If it's accurate that Mississippians are about as concerned about transgender athletes as they are about Medicaid expansion(!) I don't know how Presley can overcome that.

Exactly. So many of these people don't care whatsoever as to whether the D's wider policy base might actually help them in their day-to-day lives. The GOP knows exactly what buttons to push regarding social issues and "muh liberalism destroying our cities", and that usually seals the deal with these sorts of voters.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

IndyRep, I like you, but I think you need to take the L on this one lol

If it's accurate that Mississippians are about as concerned about transgender athletes as they are about Medicaid expansion(!) I don't know how Presley can overcome that.

Exactly. So many of these people don't care whatsoever as to whether the D's wider policy base might actually help them in their day-to-day lives. The GOP knows exactly what buttons to push regarding social issues and "muh liberalism destroying our cities", and that usually seals the deal with these sorts of voters.

Medicaid expansion probably affects like 5% of the people, since a lot of poor people are already covered.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting in here is 40% of Dems "very excited" to vote, only 29% of GOP are. Continues to show that there is actually an enthusiasm gap.... in the Dems favor. What's sinking Presley especially here is Independents, which apparently still lean very rightwing in MS. Reeves wins them by 13.

Pretty crazy however that when the two are pitted in most of the questions on "how would do a better job", they're basically even on everything except for the ridiculous question on transgender athletes. Shows people actually don't like Reeves, think Presley would do a good job, but partisanship is still winning at the end of the day.

This is also not a good sign for Beshear.

Hard disagree; KY is a total different thing. They have been able to elect a Democrat in recent years, while MS hasn't. Meanwhile, Beshear is a popular entranched incumbent. Presley obv doesn't have that benefit, Dems have a lower ceiling in MS. Reeves is also unpopular, but not as unpopular as Bevin.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting in here is 40% of Dems "very excited" to vote, only 29% of GOP are. Continues to show that there is actually an enthusiasm gap.... in the Dems favor. What's sinking Presley especially here is Independents, which apparently still lean very rightwing in MS. Reeves wins them by 13.

Pretty crazy however that when the two are pitted in most of the questions on "how would do a better job", they're basically even on everything except for the ridiculous question on transgender athletes. Shows people actually don't like Reeves, think Presley would do a good job, but partisanship is still winning at the end of the day.

This is also not a good sign for Beshear.

Hard disagree; KY is a total different thing. They have been able to elect a Democrat in recent years, while MS hasn't. Meanwhile, Beshear is a popular entranched incumbent. Presley obv doesn't have that benefit, Dems have a lower ceiling in MS. Reeves is also unpopular, but not as unpopular as Bevin.

Agree on the last point but the first two really don't matter and the Lower ceiling is just false. Espy faired better than McGrath for example

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting in here is 40% of Dems "very excited" to vote, only 29% of GOP are. Continues to show that there is actually an enthusiasm gap.... in the Dems favor. What's sinking Presley especially here is Independents, which apparently still lean very rightwing in MS. Reeves wins them by 13.

Pretty crazy however that when the two are pitted in most of the questions on "how would do a better job", they're basically even on everything except for the ridiculous question on transgender athletes. Shows people actually don't like Reeves, think Presley would do a good job, but partisanship is still winning at the end of the day.

This is also not a good sign for Beshear.

Reeves approval is negative 3. That's not enough to sink an incumbent in a state that massively favors their party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reeves and Landry are fav but as I said it's votes that count not just Polls, I still endorse Wilson and Presley and it's VBM Reeves only won by 5 MOE last time not double digits if it's close like 5 Presley can pull it off it won't be 11 final Eday vote but very close

[Ban Birth Control]

Reeves may not win by quite this much, but for all intents and purposes this is Safe R. It was never close. White Mississippi voters are extremely rigid in their voting patterns.

That’s because Mississippi dems usually have no policies to win over white Mississippians. Jim Hood had some, and he still lost by 5.