After Fayette, what could be the next Metro Atlanta county to turn blue?

[GAinDC]

We all know Fayette county is close to flipping, as Sen. Warnock only lost it by one point in his runoff last year. But what county could follow it? Here are a few guesses:

Forsyth County — it’s diversifying quickly and is home to many of the kind of affluent, white collar voters who have realigned to the Democrats in recent years. In addition, some major urban-style developments in the pipeline could lure in younger, more Dem leaning residents.

Paulding County — It’s leftward shift has flown a bit under the radar, but it has been consistent. Southern areas of the county sit close to many Black suburbs, and the northern end has much in common with whiter, left trending suburbs in nearby Cobb.

Walton County — This one is a potential sleeper flip, since it remains very Republican. However it borders mostly Black communities in Gwinnett and Rockdale, and the county line it shares with them shows a stark demographic and political divide right along the border. It appears that major change is knocking at its door.

What do y’all think?

[Oryxslayer]

Write in: Spaulding County South of Fayette, Clayton, and Henry. Already 30% AA as of 2020, with most of that concentrated in Griffin. Was closer than the other options in the most recent statewide elections. Very low population right now when compared to the rest of the options. This is important become the South suburban development is geared towards the African American middle class, and they will eventually just move in and outvote the rest when enough homes are built. Same situation as what happened in the counties immediately to the north.

Another point in its favor in this regard are the upcoming lawsuits. All include section 2 claims that involve unpacking certain South suburban seats, some that have absurdly high AA percentages. All or part of Spaulding is recommended to be put in majority AA districts on every level.  The PI that only failed at the end of 2021 because of time/purcell (according to the judges opinion) included such districts.

[Tintrlvr]

Agree with Spalding after Fayette. It's small, only needs ~15,000 black people to move in and it will flip, and it's the next stop on the highway after areas in Clayton and Henry that have had similar population shifts recently. A couple of big sprawl-y developments in Sunny Side and the Republicans are done in the county.

Paulding is next after Spalding but is much larger so requires larger population shifts to happen. Forsyth will take much longer as the new residents are not really particularly Democratic so move the needle a lot less, to the point where even Coweta might flip before Forsyth actually flips, even if Forsyth gets fairly close.

Walton could happen quickly if black suburban development suddenly appears in the county but is the most Republican of all and isn't as small as Spalding at least.

[GAinDC]

I should have included Spalding, but it really wasn’t on my radar because its partisanship has been very stagnant over the past few years.

Because it doesn’t have interstate access, it has been left out of a lot of the growth that’s happening nearby. However that could change.

[GAinDC]

Agree with Spalding after Fayette. It's small, only needs ~15,000 black people to move in and it will flip, and it's the next stop on the highway after areas in Clayton and Henry that have had similar population shifts recently. A couple of big sprawl-y developments in Sunny Side and the Republicans are done in the county.

Paulding is next after Spalding but is much larger so requires larger population shifts to happen. Forsyth will take much longer as the new residents are not really particularly Democratic so move the needle a lot less, to the point where even Coweta might flip before Forsyth actually flips, even if Forsyth gets fairly close.

Walton could happen quickly if black suburban development suddenly appears in the county but is the most Republican of all and isn't as small as Spalding at least.

Coweta’s been growing a lot yet its demographic makeup has been pretty stable. That’s a rarity in Metro Atlanta.

[Tintrlvr]

I should have included Spalding, but it really wasn’t on my radar because its partisanship has been very stagnant over the past few years.

Because it doesn’t have interstate access, it has been left out of a lot of the growth that’s happening nearby. However that could change.

For what it’s worth, Walton and Spalding both have a comparably marginal interstate connection (I-20 at the far south of Walton, I-75 at the far east of Spalding).

[Tintrlvr]

Agree with Spalding after Fayette. It's small, only needs ~15,000 black people to move in and it will flip, and it's the next stop on the highway after areas in Clayton and Henry that have had similar population shifts recently. A couple of big sprawl-y developments in Sunny Side and the Republicans are done in the county.

Paulding is next after Spalding but is much larger so requires larger population shifts to happen. Forsyth will take much longer as the new residents are not really particularly Democratic so move the needle a lot less, to the point where even Coweta might flip before Forsyth actually flips, even if Forsyth gets fairly close.

Walton could happen quickly if black suburban development suddenly appears in the county but is the most Republican of all and isn't as small as Spalding at least.

Coweta’s been growing a lot yet its demographic makeup has been pretty stable. That’s a rarity in Metro Atlanta.

Coweta is adjacent to the white parts of Fayette and also the less black almost rural-ish areas at the far south of Fulton so hadn’t been changing with growth but I think it will start changing faster soon as far south Fulton fills out and Fayette changes.

[GAinDC]

I should have included Spalding, but it really wasn’t on my radar because its partisanship has been very stagnant over the past few years.

Because it doesn’t have interstate access, it has been left out of a lot of the growth that’s happening nearby. However that could change.

For what it’s worth, Walton and Spalding both have a comparably marginal interstate connection (I-20 at the far south of Walton, I-75 at the far east of Spalding).

That’s a good point. I guess I say that  because whenever I’ve driven through Griffin it has felt decidedly outside of ATL’s orbit

[Del Tachi]

Fayette, Spalding, Paulding and Coweta all flip before Forsyth. 

[Del Tachi]

I should have included Spalding, but it really wasn’t on my radar because its partisanship has been very stagnant over the past few years.

Because it doesn’t have interstate access, it has been left out of a lot of the growth that’s happening nearby. However that could change.

For what it’s worth, Walton and Spalding both have a comparably marginal interstate connection (I-20 at the far south of Walton, I-75 at the far east of Spalding).

Some of the fastest trending parts of Gwinnett have bad interstate connectivity (i.e., Grayson, Snellville, etc.) but it doesn't seem to have dashed D growth there; Forsyth also has no interstate connections but still has Biden-voting precincts. 

Interstate connections don't mean much when exurban Atlanta is mostly edge cities.  No one is commuting from Gainesville or Newnan to ITP.  There are exurban employment centers that can beget even more diversification in the most far-flung parts of the metro. 

[Sol]

Fayette, Spalding, Paulding and Coweta all flip before Forsyth. 

The first three seem pretty obvious but I'll confess I don't see the argument for Coweta. It's definitely in the parts of Metro Atlanta that are getting more Black, but unlike those other counties there hasn't been much hint of any actual shift, with the Black % only increasing by a percentage point between 2010 and 2020.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wonder if Blue Butts could be a sleeper flip in the coming decades. It's small and rural now but adjacent to Henry.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Forsyth or Coweta.

[Sol]

Forsyth or Coweta.

Why Coweta, when shifts in Paulding and arguably Spalding seem more promising?

[Sol]

Wrt. Walton, I don't think flipping is likely in the medium term, but it does appear the western side, around Loganville, is becoming a lot more Black. This is the case for northern Carroll County too; Villa Rica already votes D.