China’s economy on the brink of collapse

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-08-29/chinas-faltering-economy-state-directed-planning-global-effects

Chinese economic statistics have never been entirely reliable, but the last reported number for urban youth unemployment we have is 21.3% (it may actually be closer to 50%). One sign it will get worse: China recently announced it will no longer be publishing youth unemployment or consumer confidence numbers.

China is also facing a ripening debt crisis and potential deflationary spiral. For decades, the Chinese government has encouraged real estate speculation and over-investment. As a result, millions of Chinese small investors and families put their eggs in the housing basket, fueling massive bubbles, soaring home prices and crushing increases in debt. Countless skyscrapers, airports, highways, even whole cities, are little more than white elephants thanks to state-directed over-building.

Now, the housing sector — roughly a quarter of China’s economy — is cratering. Falling prices, construction industry bankruptcies and slower growth generally, are scaring consumers out of spending and raising concerns about deflation.

Foreign investment in China is drying up as investors see more contraction on the horizon and foreign firms — and even Chinese ones — move their supply chains elsewhere.

The fact is as much as people spent the last two decades talking how the Chinese economic model may be better than the West’s economic model , the fact is those policies have helped create this horrible mess .

[super6646]

Ya okay.

Don’t get me wrong, I do believe China is somewhat of a paper tiger, but until this is seriously reflected in the macroeconomic stats this seems like a major stretch.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ya okay.

Don’t get me wrong, I do believe China is somewhat of a paper tiger, but until this is seriously reflected in the macroeconomic stats this seems like a major stretch.

Except it actually has , given the youth unemployment numbers and the fact they will no longer be publishing those numbers other .

[Red Velvet]

Trust me, I just received a BIG insider information and Chinese economy will fall in just 72 hours. We had to let the enemy act in order for it to feel safe and comfortable, so that we could take them down at its most vulnerable.

Just 72 hours more.

[It’s so Joever]

On one hand this is probably just another clickbait article, but on the other hand China’s growth was never really sustainable and a lot of long term problems are starting to reveal themselves, and not just financially.

[2952-0-0]

It wasn't long ago that the media was "China is a juggernaut set to take over the world". Now it's "China is about to collapse".

There had been many problems bubbling under the surface of China's economy for well over a decade, and the pandemic - and Xi's mishandling of it - merely brought these out. On the other hand, China's economy and society - including the CCP system - are resilient enough to keep the lights on. My educated guess is that things will muddle through, but with increasing strains as time goes by. Problems will mount, while real progress in technologies are made. But the latter will not be sufficient to satisfy the former.

This means that either narrative is grounded in some truth, but contains a lot of clickbait.

But what do I know? Such a nuanced take won't attract clicks.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trust me, I just received a BIG insider information and Chinese economy will fall in just 72 hours. We had to let the enemy act in order for it to feel safe and comfortable, so that we could take them down at its most vulnerable.

Just 72 hours more.

I bet you US $2,000,000,000,000 in sovereign debt they don't go broke.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/china-ambassador-economy-status/

[Former President tack50]

While I do not think China will collapse, I will say I have seen some takes that are basically along the lines of "China is just a giant version of pre-2008 Spain".

Are they true? I mean, idk. But if they are, China is in for a real bad time (indeed I've seen some "Welcome to the club China" memes regarding the youth unemployment rate lol)

[dead0man]

"lol, this is the hundredth story I've heard about China's imminent collapse" isn't a good defense of the PRC's overall sh**tty situation, just sayin'.  I suppose it makes PRC fanbois feel a little better.

[Stranger in a strange land]

"lol, this is the hundredth story I've heard about China's imminent collapse" isn't a good defense of the PRC's overall sh**tty situation, just sayin'.  I suppose it makes PRC fanbois feel a little better.

The clickbait video titles were delibrately selected to be the most extreme & provocative ones, but people have been predicting that the Chinese economy was about to collapse/slow down/stall for at least 30 years now. It obviously can happen, the warning signs are definitely there, and a lot of recent trends aren't good, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[CumbrianLefty]

"lol, this is the hundredth story I've heard about China's imminent collapse" isn't a good defense of the PRC's overall sh**tty situation, just sayin'.  I suppose it makes PRC fanbois feel a little better.

You don't have to be a "fanboi" to find it just a touch amusing though.

[Santander]

On the other hand, China's economy and society - including the CCP system - are resilient enough to keep the lights on.

Indeed. Someone will have to suffer, but the government has plenty of levers to pull, and Chinese society cannot be deconstructed by a property bubble or tensions with the West.

[Bismarck]

Collapse? No. Stagnation? Seems possible. Major issues? Definitely

[buritobr]

Since the Han dinasty there are forecasts on China's economy on the brink of collapse. It looks like some religions expecting the Apocalipse and always changing the date when the Apocalipse doesn't take place on the scheduled date.

[Electric Circus]

Peter Zeihan here,

[Sirius_]

Since the Han dinasty there are forecasts on China's economy on the brink of collapse. It looks like some religions expecting the Apocalipse and always changing the date when the Apocalipse doesn't take place on the scheduled date.

Well if you go back that far you'll definitely find collapses

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Neoliberals like to tell themselves stuff like this to avoid feeling bad about totally dropping the ball with getting China into the WTO.

[CityofSinners]

By far the most likely outcome is slowing growth or stagnation. The central government has the will and state capacity to prevent a collapse.
After the last few years I very much doubt, that Xi is willing or capable of making the necessary free market reforms to get growth going again.

A poorer Japan is likely to be the future of China. Unwilling to let zombie companies and banks fail, while demographics hurt more and more.

[PSOL]

Xi is only known for free market reforms lol, so far “homes are for speculation” isn’t leading to a more prosperous society.

Compared to the US and EU structural problems, china isn’t in some awful position

[2952-0-0]

A poorer Japan is likely to be the future of China. Unwilling to let zombie companies and banks fail, while demographics hurt more and more.

Japan in the 90s was already the world's richest major economy, and its domestic politics were a complete snoozefest. That meant that, while Japan suffered from political paralysis and wasn't able to resolve its financial problems, no bad decisions were actually made. All that really meant was that, while in the 80s the average Japanese family could jet off to Hawaii twice a year and stay at a five star hotel, in the 90s the same family would go once a year and stay at a three star hotel. Who cares, in the grand scheme of things? Plus, its political class had no reason to care about geopolitics.

China is still a largely poor country, and now has a "People's Leader" who has a reverse Midas touch, and who is obsessed with a geopolitical confrontation with...those who keep hundreds of millions of his subjects employed. That makes China's situation today much worse than Japan's 30 years ago.

I do think that, in China's large cities at least, life will appear as usual, with restaurants still packed and the streets filled with traffic. China's rich will find ways to protect themselves one way or the other. There are already anecdotal stories of industrial cities filled with factories that make stuff for export becoming ghost towns, and of many small towns having trouble paying their staff.

Xi is only known for free market reforms lol, so far “homes are for speculation” isn’t leading to a more prosperous society.

I also have beach front property in Gansu for sale.

[MasterJedi]

China is getting shakier but Pooh is Mao 2.0, he’ll slaughter millions to keep the CCP in power. China won’t “fall” in the same way other places would.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trust me, I just received a BIG insider information and Chinese economy will fall in just 72 hours. We had to let the enemy act in order for it to feel safe and comfortable, so that we could take them down at its most vulnerable.

Just 72 hours more.

Times up brah.

Where is my 2 trillion?

China imported the largest order of beef in World history.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-02/china-economy-slow-but-demand-for-beef-breaking-records/102800396

July 2023 - Chinese Beef Imports

Brazil - 295 Million kilograms of beef.
Australia - 115 Million kilograms of beef.

July 2023 - Australian Beef Exports

Japan - 120 Million kg
China - 115 Million kg
USA - 112 Million kg
South Korea - 104 Million kg

Looks like Chinese appetite for imports is stronger than ever.

[dead0man]

July 2023 - Australian Beef Exports

Japan - 120 Million kg
China - 115 Million kg
USA - 112 Million kg

I found this odd and did some light research.  We import 10% of our beef and we are the second largest importer behind China.  More than half of the world's beef is produced just in the US, Brazil and China.  Most of our imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Aus/NZ.

[Santander]

I only eat red meat from Australia or New Zealand. American meat is so disgusting.