MS Gov. IMPACT SURVEY tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1696924118514270479?s=20

PRESLEY 46
Reeves 46

It's not Safe R

[Sirius_]

We never even left!

[SnowLabrador]

On a very good night for Democrats, Presley might get 46%. The last few points are going to be nearly impossible.

[Duke of York]

On a very good night for Democrats, Presley might get 46%. The last few points are going to be nearly impossible.

On a rare occasion I agree with you. Mississippi is a very inelastic state. There is high floor but getting the last few points is just about impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see Nov 2023, this is Presley internal but it's very good for him , impact is a D internal

[President Johnson]

Pressley may end up with 46% in a best case scenario. I still think this race is Safe Republican. It's Mississippi we're talking about after all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pressley may end up with 46% in a best case scenario. I still think this race is Safe Republican. It's Mississippi we're talking about after all.

We will see Eday , but despite Vosem and Redban Biden polls are in the incline not decline that's why Harris X has him up 52/48 that's why PRESLEY is improving

[MT Treasurer]

This race has produced some of the laziest analysis on this forum, which really says a lot. Very few even bother to look up the candidates, the campaign issues, their ads, profiles, etc., it’s just "Safe R because MS is inelastic", "state is racially polarized" and "Hood can get to 46% but nothing else" in every single thread. Repeating it all the time doesn’t make it any more accurate, however.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is a released Democratic Internal, so usually it overestimates the candidate releasing it by 6 points. So this is very consistent with a Reeves +6 race.

This is still not Safe R, as olakawandi said. However, Reeves is a favorite, probably by around his 2019 margin or a hair more.

There is also a nonzero chance that the race converges partisanship at the last minute, and Reeves wins easily.

This race has produced some of the laziest analysis on this forum, which really says a lot. Very few even bother to look up the candidates, the campaign issues, their ads, profiles, etc., it’s just "Safe R because MS is inelastic", "state is racially polarized" and "Hood can get to 46% but nothing else" in every single thread. Repeating it all the time doesn’t make it any more accurate, however.

Again, you are cherrypicking. This is a Democratic Internal, and the corresponding Republican Internal shows Reeves +17. Neither of the results are likely accurate, but when you average all the data so far (including the nonpartisan polls) it comes out to Reeves +6-8.

[Xing]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

[NewYorkExpress]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

I actually can see a scenario where Cameron wins and Reeves loses. It's pretty obvious that Cameron is a far stronger candidate than Reeves is at this point, and on top of that Presley is running an amazing campaign so far.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm a bit shocked to see this race be this close.

[Alben Barkley]

If I can dream...

In all seriousness Presley should be making hay of his Elvis connections. It could catapult him to victory in this day and age. We're talking about a universe in which Donald Trump was elected president because a bunch of rednecks watched him on the Celebrity Apprentice, after all. Clearly celebrity sells! Pull a "snow job," Brandon, the same way Colonel Tom Parker would have wanted your cousin to!

[Dave Hedgehog]

This race has produced some of the laziest analysis on this forum, which really says a lot. Very few even bother to look up the candidates, the campaign issues, their ads, profiles, etc., it’s just "Safe R because MS is inelastic", "state is racially polarized" and "Hood can get to 46% but nothing else" in every single thread. Repeating it all the time doesn’t make it any more accurate, however.

Problem is, it's true. We're no longer seeing a huge amount of surprising or split-ticket results in statewide elections. In more and more cases, they're just reflexively voting as they would in the presidential. J.D. Vance in Ohio was a lousy candidate running against probably the Dems' best recruit and still won easily. Mike Parson in Missouri absolutely hammered Nicole Galloway in 2020; he was hardly the strongest incumbent and she'd actually won statewide two years earlier and it wasn't remotely competitive in the end. We have now entered the age where too large blocs of voters (especially in red states) have essentially just been preprogrammed to hate everything the other side stands for without question and vote for letters in front of names instead of candidates. The only reason Andy Beshear stands a chance is because he's an incumbent who's posted very high approvals in a state strongly aligned against his party. Louisiana is almost certain to vote in the R by a margin similar to what it will give Trump next year and while I can see this race being narrower, it's probably going to be a pretty easy R hold in the end. Lazy analysis maybe, but let's not deny voting habits at large are getting lazier/more rigid with time.

[Skill and Chance]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

I actually can see a scenario where Cameron wins and Reeves loses. It's pretty obvious that Cameron is a far stronger candidate than Reeves is at this point, and on top of that Presley is running an amazing campaign so far.

Yep, this is one case where the single issue abortion vote cuts the other way.  Pressley can get a sizeable chunk of pro-lifers who would never even consider Beshear.  In theory, Beshear can win with everyone who voted down the referendum, but that includes plenty of people who have never voted state/local Dem before so it's a stretch. 

Beshear's hope is high info voters who like him as a person and know the R legislature can do as it pleases anyway.

[Mr.Phips]

This will end up like 2019.

[wbrocks67]

D internal but everything else looks good under the hood, it's a Trump +16 electorate. The fact that it's even tied with that electorate is terrible for Reeves.

[Pollster]

This is a released Democratic Internal, so usually it overestimates the candidate releasing it by 6 points.

I get that campaigns/orgs typically release internals only when they help support a narrative or raise money (which is a broadly appropriate if unnuanced way of thinking about this) but this is not quantifiable and I'd urge folks against applying this standard.

[Sir Mohamed]

This will end up like 2019.

Yup, that's what I expect. Reevers seriously underperforming as he's unpopular, but it's still a red state and the partisan lean will bail him out.

It's Likely R at best.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

I actually can see a scenario where Cameron wins and Reeves loses. It's pretty obvious that Cameron is a far stronger candidate than Reeves is at this point, and on top of that Presley is running an amazing campaign so far.

Yep, this is one case where the single issue abortion vote cuts the other way.  Pressley can get a sizeable chunk of pro-lifers who would never even consider Beshear.  In theory, Beshear can win with everyone who voted down the referendum, but that includes plenty of people who have never voted state/local Dem before so it's a stretch. 

Beshear's hope is high info voters who like him as a person and know the R legislature can do as it pleases anyway.

I do Republicans think are have room to gain with black voters, but I’m not convinced that the ones that are ripest for them are actually going to vote in the fall of this year

[Skill and Chance]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

I actually can see a scenario where Cameron wins and Reeves loses. It's pretty obvious that Cameron is a far stronger candidate than Reeves is at this point, and on top of that Presley is running an amazing campaign so far.

Yep, this is one case where the single issue abortion vote cuts the other way.  Pressley can get a sizeable chunk of pro-lifers who would never even consider Beshear.  In theory, Beshear can win with everyone who voted down the referendum, but that includes plenty of people who have never voted state/local Dem before so it's a stretch. 

Beshear's hope is high info voters who like him as a person and know the R legislature can do as it pleases anyway.

I do Republicans think are have room to gain with black voters, but I’m not convinced that the ones that are ripest for them are actually going to vote in the fall of this year

Furthermore, what reason would more religious/socially conservative black voters even have to defect from Pressley?  Especially against a hardcore fiscon like Reeves who doesn't want to spend a dime on things that would disproportionately help them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will end up like 2019.

Yup, that's what I expect. Reevers seriously underperforming as he's unpopular, but it's still a red state and the partisan lean will bail him out.

It's Likely R at best.

Lol we are winning KY G Beshesr plus 8, this is a D internal it's not Safe R tossupTilt D Go PRESLEY

Users still don't know what Impact Poll is, it's a D internal, just like Listener is a D internal for FL POLLS

[MT Treasurer]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015

Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.

Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.

Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!

[Mr.Phips]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015

Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.

Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.

Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!

JBE won in a runoff about a month after the regular elections.  Later runoffs have different dynamics than regular Election Day races.

[MT Treasurer]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015

Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.

Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.

Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!

JBE won in a runoff about a month after the regular elections.  Later runoffs have different dynamics than regular Election Day races.

They do, but not as radically different as would be sufficient to explain this outcome. Vitter finished the first round with 23% of the vote — his flaws as a candidate were already more than apparent in that election, and he predictably bled a ton of Republican support to JBE in the runoff just like he did to other Republicans in the jungle primary.

Reeves' flaws as a candidate have been just as obvious for months now, and he’s doing absolutely nothing to combat them.