Is New York Trending Republican?

[S019]

Surprised there isn't a thread on this yet, but it isn't hard to see that Democrats did absolutely awful in NY in 2022 and while some of it can be blamed on "crime" and poor turnout, there is the question of if there is a more permanent shift in NY. It obviously won't be competitive in 2024, but was the shift right a one-time fluke or is it a sign of something bigger and a sign that maybe Republicans should seriously contest the state in a decade or so?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

There've been other threads discussing this

Re: NY: Biden 47%, Trump 34% (Sienna)

I can see NY shifting hard against the Dems. I am not sure what is going on but Republicans did well in 2022, and the upstate and Long Island areas are voting for Republican than they did pre-Trump.

Local Democrat numbers in New York suck from top to bottom.

But we are in a period of Urban Decay where cities in the West suffer, and the State of New York has very few suburbs to counterbalance the urban decay of New York City.

So White Liberals who flee to the suburbs of New Jersey and Connecticut drag those states Democrat, and those who stay get a fright everytime they go out for a walk and become like Trump over time.

So in the long run New York ought to be the most Republican in the tristate area.

Yes, NY is a bit unique in that it has the entire downtown, but most of the ritzy suburbs get chopped off into other states and it takes on a mathematically meaningful amount of Rust Belt/Appalachian territory instead.  Theoretically, it loses the most left-trending population and combines the 2 most right-trending populations.  Sort of like a reverse MD or, to a lesser extent, VA (rural areas and the largest downtown get chopped off to make the state really suburban dominated) 

Re: Certain trends in NJ and NY. What does it portend for GOP in 2024

As a NYCer who also spends time in NJ, I feel qualified to answer...

On the federal/Pres level, I think Rs do have potential to make further gains in the greater NYC area. In particular, ethnic enclaves in places like South Brooklyn and the Outer Reaches of Queens are particularly susceptible to the GOP's culture war messaging as many hold very traditional/conversative social values and don't like when they feel their culture is under any sort of attack. I also think the GOP generally has potential to continue Trump's 2020 gains with Black and Hispanic men of colour and a lot of that is just activating currently non-voters.

Long Island will be interesting to watch. Biden got really solid swings on Long Island in 2020, but in 2022 these same suburbs snapped hard right. I would be curious to have a precinct level map because some of it might be attributed to non-white voters (which is Dems primary base on Long Island) just having really low turnout. Long Island doesn't really have any D-leaning white suburbs other than arguably the Hamptons, so turnout dynamics between white and non-white votes matters a ton here.

Upstate NY I suspect will just do whatever simillar parts of New England do and I suspect there's a good chance it swings left again due to the scattering of cities and college towns upstate.

Re: State trend predictions through the 2030's

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yes, the state is becoming more Republican but it isn't going to be competitive any time soon on the federal level.

[Duke of York]

I can see perhaps a slight shift to the right but its not going to be competitive anytime soon. Most of what happened in 22 has to do with Hochul running an absolutely dreadful campaign.

[seskoog]

Yes, but fairly slowly. 2016-20  shifts are a much better metric to use than anything from 2022

[robocop]

I was starting to wonder if New York is the opposite of Texas and the upstate areas like Buffalo do fit the Rust Belt description of areas in other states Trump succeeded in.

Staten Island and Long Island have always been very swing areas though?

Likewise I wonder if Illinois has this potential too, like NY dominated by a very Democrat dominated big city but where the population in that city is declining and plenty of rural Farm Belt areas elsewhere that swung right in the Trump era.

[Samof94]

I can see perhaps a slight shift to the right but its not going to be competitive anytime soon. Most of what happened in 22 has to do with Hochul running an absolutely dreadful campaign.

She had baggage from her predecessor

[Duke of York]

I can see perhaps a slight shift to the right but its not going to be competitive anytime soon. Most of what happened in 22 has to do with Hochul running an absolutely dreadful campaign.

She had baggage from her predecessor

and she ran an absolutely awful campaign

[GAinDC]

NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.

I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.

Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I expect Trump to do worse with white voters in than Zeldin did but he will match or exceed him with minorities

[Devils30]

NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.

I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.

Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.

Some of the GOPs biggest gains might come in 75% Dem Asian/Hispanic areas that have little benefit to the party (at least in 2024). Nassau is fairly college educated so i expect a considerably better Dem performance there.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.

I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.

Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.

Some of the GOPs biggest gains might come in 75% Dem Asian/Hispanic areas that have little benefit to the party (at least in 2024). Nassau is fairly college educated so i expect a considerably better Dem performance there.

This is the problem for Molinaro/Williams etc. The areas that will swing the most r will not be their districts. Even if the current map is left intact(which is possible imo) they won’t see much of a swing towards reps at all in their districts. The only ones that have a racially diverse district are DeSpesito and the Santos and of course the Dems might win the special in the latter and leave the gop with no incumbent.

[Tekken_Guy]

NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.

I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.

Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.

Some of the GOPs biggest gains might come in 75% Dem Asian/Hispanic areas that have little benefit to the party (at least in 2024). Nassau is fairly college educated so i expect a considerably better Dem performance there.

This is the problem for Molinaro/Williams etc. The areas that will swing the most r will not be their districts. Even if the current map is left intact(which is possible imo) they won’t see much of a swing towards reps at all in their districts. The only ones that have a racially diverse district are DeSpesito and the Santos and of course the Dems might win the special in the latter and leave the gop with no incumbent.

If you really think there’s a chance Santos resigns before his term is up, I have a beachfront mansion in Kansas to sell you.

[Devils30]

NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.

I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.

Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.

Some of the GOPs biggest gains might come in 75% Dem Asian/Hispanic areas that have little benefit to the party (at least in 2024). Nassau is fairly college educated so i expect a considerably better Dem performance there.

This is the problem for Molinaro/Williams etc. The areas that will swing the most r will not be their districts. Even if the current map is left intact(which is possible imo) they won’t see much of a swing towards reps at all in their districts. The only ones that have a racially diverse district are DeSpesito and the Santos and of course the Dems might win the special in the latter and leave the gop with no incumbent.

If you really think there’s a chance Santos resigns before his term is up, I have a beachfront mansion in Kansas to sell you.

2 things can happen in NY that help Dems:

1) Dems get their Hochulmander back and Santos, D'Esposito, Molinaro, Williams, Lawler are all gone while LaLota is close to.

2) Dems do better with rust belt types, win NY-19,22 while Lawler is cooked. In addition, NY-3 is flipped due to scandal and NY-4 is closer than 2020 but still a Biden hold/Dem flip. GOP gains are centered with Asians in Queens.

[TheReckoning]

NYC will be plurality Latino very soon. Republicans are not going to become competitive in New York.

[Samof94]

NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.

I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.

Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.

If New York is a swing state, there has been a major realignment.

[Ragnaroni]

NY feels like a state that could be swingy in the 2030s or early 2040s if the GOP plays its cards right. The consequences would be massive for the Democrats (its like the GOP losing FL) and would certainly mean that the GOP has a lead in PA and WI at minimum. It would also mean the GOP took a northern path instead of stayed with its southern path. So a world where GA is D+7 but NY is R+1.5 is possible (and very cursed), trends don't mean everything, WV was a strongly blue state but something snapped and its now on track to being the GOP's best state after the Mountain West states of ID and WY!

But the GOP needs to cultivate a competent, more moderate wing of the party in NY to make it competitive. Democratic incompetence and mistakes could aid the GOP.

[Flyersfan232]

I can see perhaps a slight shift to the right but its not going to be competitive anytime soon. Most of what happened in 22 has to do with Hochul running an absolutely dreadful campaign.

you stil hold this view after 2023 elections?

[Flyersfan232]

I expect Trump to do worse with white voters in than Zeldin did but he will match or exceed him with minorities

bad take with the minorities

[mileslunn]

Hochul was more a local backlash.  Saw same in Oregon in state election but no one talks about it swinging GOP anytime soon.  Midterms tend to have lower turnouts so those angry at incumbent more motivated to show up.

State overall saw GOP gain amongst Asians and Hispanics but amongst whites, Biden did better than Hillary Clinton.  Outside New York City, most counties swung towards Biden