What is the single most incorrect poll in American history?
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  What is the single most incorrect poll in American history?
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Author Topic: What is the single most incorrect poll in American history?  (Read 1608 times)
AtorBoltox
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« on: August 29, 2023, 01:42:54 AM »

What poll (conducted reasonably close to the election) has differed most from the actual result? Answers can be in any type of election, not just presidential. Obviously the infamous Literary Digest poll of 1936 would be amongst the worst
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kyc0705
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2023, 11:39:23 AM »

Trafalgar is low-hanging fruit, but their poll of the 2022 Vermont Senate election is an all-timer. The poll (if you can call it that)* had Peter Welch up 7 points and he won by 41.

*There's a very plausible case that what Trafalgar did in 2022 wouldn't meet any definition of polling.
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Redban
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2023, 12:45:51 PM »

This one has gotta' be up there?

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-10-28/biden-opens-gaping-17-point-lead-on-trump-in-wisconsin-poll-finds

Biden Opens Gaping 17-Point Lead on Trump in Wisconsin, Poll Finds
Oct. 28, 2020
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2023, 09:05:06 PM »

Most of the polls for the 2016 Michigan Democratic primary should also be up there, with a special callout for FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell, which showed Clinton winning by 37% two days before and 27% the day before she lost to Sanders by 1.5%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
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