2030 FL GOV - Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Inc) vs. Byron Donalds (R)

[Meatball Slayer]

On the topic of 2026 FL GOV being a potential sleeper flip for Democrats, I have decided to make this post, to flesh out this topic a bit further.

Let’s say that, Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell pulls off an upset win in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election against Matt Gaetz, thanks to Florida’s housing bubble finally popping, causing backlash against DeSantis and the wider Florida GOP. The FLDems also flip the Agriculture Commissioner’s office, defeating incumbent Wilton Simpson, though the FLGOP holds the rest of the statewide offices and both legislative chambers (but no supermajorities).

The 2030 Florida gubernatorial election becomes a matchup between incumbent Governor Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and Rep. Byron Donalds, who foregoes a Senate run in favor of attempting to oust Mucarsel-Powell. How does this race play out? Who wins, and by what margin?

[Meatball Slayer]

For the sake of this scenario, let’s say that Trump flipped the Presidency in 2024, and was succeeded by Kamala Harris in 2028.

Florida also goes Republican presidentially and senatorially in 2024 & 2028.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

D +5 after whoever the Republican nominee was won FL by 10 in 2018. Then, we'll hear about how Florida is suddenly trending Democratic again, only for FL to go R+12 in 2032.

Usually, minority party governors with supermajority legislatures in the opposing party tend to be very popular. It would be a Laura Kelly scenario.

[Meatball Slayer]

D +5 after whoever the Republican nominee was won FL by 10 in 2018. Then, we'll hear about how Florida is suddenly trending Democratic again, only for FL to go R+12 in 2032.

Usually, minority party governors with supermajority legislatures in the opposing party tend to be very popular. It would be a Laura Kelly scenario.

Really goes to show how much less polarized governor races are compared to presidential ones.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

You’re seriously asking to predict an election seven years ahead?