Difference of the polarization in Latin America and in other parts of the developing world

[buritobr]

Polarization in Latin America is not the same as the polarization in eastern Europe, Middle East and Asia.

In Latin America, except Nicaragua, the political groups who support the feminist and LGBT+ policies are in the same side of the political spectrum of the anti-imperialist political groups. There is a classic left, who supports progressive agenda and south-south cooperation, and a classic right, who supports free-market economics, social conservatism and pro-USA foreign policy.

In other parts of the developing world, the polarization is different. There are nationalists who have social conservative views, and pro-west people who have more progressive views on social issues. In Russia, the LGBT+ people had better time during Yeltsin era than during the communist and the Putin era. In Turkey, the conservative nationalist Erdogan ran against a pro-west progressive. In Iran, Khatami was more social liberal, more friendly to the western world, while Ahmadinejad was anti-West and closer to the muslim fundamentalism. In China, the Shangai wing of the Communist Party is more pro-free market, social liberal and closer to the West, while the countryside wing of the Communist Party, to which Xi Jinping belongs, is more nationalist and more social conservative.

[GALeftist]

It is quite interesting. Maybe the closest analogue I can think of is South Korea, although there both sides are pro-US and it's really just a question of degree. Could be a function of geopolitical proximity to the United States

[Red Velvet]

I will just make an observation that not all the Latin American right is pro-West hegemony nowadays, especially in Brazil at least.

The “classic right” that got swallowed by the “new right” is still very much so, but you increasingly have more and more Bolsonarist loyalists who are part of the ”anti-woke new right” and are STRONGLY anti-Europe (especially against France) and somewhat against US under Biden too.

Bolsonarists were pro-US when Trump was president there, but they basically have the same mentality that US Trumpists have and are more friendly to say, Russian president for defending traditional family values than they are to US president lmao

Meanwhile, the left also has its divisions between “classic left” and the “new woke left” but the balance of power still largely favors the “classic left” by huge margins. With Lula also being a classic leftist at his age, it makes them still ~the face~ of the mainstream left that is defended or accepted by everyone.

While the “Woke Left” is forced into irrelevance by a few twitter weirdos who still support Lula anyways lmaaaao. They also have no strong political reference to justify themselves, with the closest to represent that camp - Gabriel Boric in Chile - being ridiculed by the mainstream left anyways and unpopular at home.

It’s beautiful in the sense that we never had a close of a consensus in international policy as we have nowadays thanks to this “revolution” in the right where they aren’t able to conciliate the contradictions between their old support of the West and Big Corporations with the reality those institutions now push everything they despise the most: LGBT agenda; Gender agenda; Racial agenda; Environmental agenda; Pro-Democracy agenda etc.

While this contradiction doesn’t really exist for the left because those same institutions are the same that always pushed AGAINST all of those things here even if they defended it inside the 1st world. It wasn’t Russia or China that promoted more than 20 years of dictatorship in our country, but the ones now posing as its “defenders” and “gatekeepers”. Latin America is not freaking Eastern Europe, we’re much closer to Africa on that sense politically.

I always dreamed of this moment where the neoliberal right would become irrelevant and it’s finally real hehehe. I think this is more in Brazil though, neolibs in both right and left are still very much present throughout all of LatAm.

Who knew Bolsonaro, despite all his destructive power, would work so well on imploding the neoliberal right thanks to his copycat nature in regards Trump narratives and tactics?

Bolsonaro may be over but hopefully “Bolsonarism” will keep being the face of the right for the next years so we can have:

A) A “Silent Consensus” on foreign policy issues, where you only have the mainstream media going nuts about but both right and left majority camps silently agreeing with it, at most only pretending to disagree in order to “oppose” the camp in power.

This cohesion makes getting things done on a geopolitical scale much much easier, with zero or weak opposition.

Bolsonarists counter to Brazil under Lula buying cheap Russian oil to sell it more expensive to the West was that Bolsonaro did MORE to safeguard business with Russia, visiting Putin just before the war to ensure fertilizers trade would be safe.

Their complain about Lula is that he’s the TRUE globalist pro-western bootlicker for working with Europe on environmental agenda to “sell out” the Amazon lmaaaao. Meanwhile westerners are going kinda mad with Lula positions in the realm of the BRICS.

We’re now all under a geopolitically realist “self-benefit” nationalist agreement on the matter, while the ultra-ideologues and globalists sound like a joke. It’s a really wonderful development.

B) The Right being so ridiculously incompetent, evil and a caricature of everything the left always said they were that the fence-sitters in the center who prefer “moderates” finally lean more to the left.

The female vote (traditionally more centrist) now suddenly favoring PT after years of it favoring PSDB is only one example. But the mainstream media of Rede Globo now being more friendly to PT because of Bolsonarism is something I never thought I would see.

It opens a lot of door for the left to slowly radicalize internally too while still looking the “pragmatic” option in comparison to the primitive buffoons now in the right.

C) It ensures the PSDB never gets back on its feet. There is a valid argument that the center-right is preferable to the extreme-right for not being a threat to democracy but that’s the only thing going for them.

Also, since Bolsonaro is out of the game, whoever replaces him (ex:Tarcisio) in the hard-right camp will likely follow similar awful policies but not be as stupid to actually try to perform a coup, especially after seeing how it ended for Bolsonaro.

If Trump gets back in 2024, that will be a giant energy fuel for the Bolsonarist right to keep its protagonism since a lot of Brazil’s right looks up to USA right as a reference point (the same isn’t necessarily true for the left though).

And the existence of this “populist right” in the world is exactly what strengths the goals the Latin American left always dreamed of in terms of asserting our freedom and independence. Because it’s the Western world itself that gets continuously weaker with the rise of this new brand of right-wing politics.

They’re the ones who started with it though by opening Pandora’s Box and they’re the ones who need to end the cycle before their own self-destruction because of it. And if they do it, it’s still a win to put this radical brand of conservative politics back in its place. To my individual perspective, it’s a win-win regardless.

[Sol]

I mean, this is not surprising. Latin America is more culturally tied to Europe and North America, where the political systems of the kind you describe are more common, than it is to anywhere else in the world.

Why would we expect politics in Chile or Mexico to be more similar to Iran or Turkey just because they look more alike on superficial economic indicators?

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, this is not surprising. Latin America is more culturally tied to Europe and North America, where the political systems of the kind you describe are more common, than it is to anywhere else in the world.

Why would we expect politics in Chile or Mexico to be more similar to Iran or Turkey just because they look more alike on superficial economic indicators?

GLOBAL SOUTH, though!

[Samof94]

Why is Bukele so popular??? This guy is awful and has a rather one dimensional solution for dealing with crime, which is more prisons.

[Edu]

Why is Bukele so popular??? This guy is awful and has a rather one dimensional solution for dealing with crime, which is more prisons.

Homicides in El Salvador
Year   Per 100k inhabitants   Total
2015   106.3   
2016   84.1   
2017   83.0   
2018   53.1   3,346
2019   38.0   2,398
2020   21.2   1,341
2021   18.1   1,147
2022   7.8   495


And before you say that crime has been dropping before him, the fact is that going from 106 to 38 is a 65% reduction in crime but it still remained one of the worst places in latin america. Going from 38 to 7,8 is like a 80% reduction in homicides and actually makes El Salvador one of the safest in the region.

Not endorsing him or anything but I can see why he's so popular

[oldtimer]

Why is Bukele so popular??? This guy is awful and has a rather one dimensional solution for dealing with crime, which is more prisons.

Welcome to the Wild West (or Wild South).

Central american mini-states have governments so weak that gangs practically run the place to the ground.

So people have an affinity for a Caudilo/Sheriff/Dirty Harry to cut the crap with a strong hand.

[oldtimer]

It is quite interesting. Maybe the closest analogue I can think of is South Korea, although there both sides are pro-US and it's really just a question of degree. Could be a function of geopolitical proximity to the United States

It's nothing like South Korea.

Look at the history and demographics of the region:

Slavery was greater and lasted longer in most parts of South America.
Catholics are far far greater in share going back a few centuries more than North America.
The butchering of native americans was also centuries earlier.
Iberia didn't experience the enlightenment.

So you get a society that is far far more racial, catholic, and feudal.

Whites have almost all the property and they tend to guard it against those who don't, both sides will ally anyone who is on their side and fight those who don't.
Even the Catholic Church has been persecuted for siding with the poor.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why is Bukele so popular??? This guy is awful and has a rather one dimensional solution for dealing with crime, which is more prisons.

Because his approach to crime is actually working, at least for now. El Salvador's murder rate fell from 106 per 100,000 in 2015 (the highest in the world) to 7.8 in 2022, and it's now safe for women and children to go outside. I don't like the guy at all, and his Bitcoin thing is stupid, but every Salvadoran person I've met approves of what he's doing, and I have to take their views into account.

[buritobr]

I mean, this is not surprising. Latin America is more culturally tied to Europe and North America, where the political systems of the kind you describe are more common, than it is to anywhere else in the world.

Why would we expect politics in Chile or Mexico to be more similar to Iran or Turkey just because they look more alike on superficial economic indicators?

Yes, this explanation plays a role. Unlike Africa, Middle East and Asia, most of the Latin American population has European ancestry. The half white half black in Brazil, the half white half indigenous in Bolivia and Peru have half European ancestry.
Although the creators of the definition "western world" don't include Latin America in the western world, many conservative Latin Americans considerer their countries as part of the western world. There are very few anti-west conservatives in Latin America. Most of the conservative Latin Americans support the west in a conservative way. They don't relate the western world to modern values in social issues. They relate the western world to the christian roots.

[buritobr]

I will just make an observation that not all the Latin American right is pro-West hegemony nowadays, especially in Brazil at least.

The “classic right” that got swallowed by the “new right” is still very much so, but you increasingly have more and more Bolsonarist loyalists who are part of the ”anti-woke new right” and are STRONGLY anti-Europe (especially against France) and somewhat against US under Biden too.

Bolsonarists were pro-US when Trump was president there, but they basically have the same mentality that US Trumpists have and are more friendly to say, Russian president for defending traditional family values than they are to US president lmao

Meanwhile, the left also has its divisions between “classic left” and the “new woke left” but the balance of power still largely favors the “classic left” by huge margins. With Lula also being a classic leftist at his age, it makes them still ~the face~ of the mainstream left that is defended or accepted by everyone.

While the “Woke Left” is forced into irrelevance by a few twitter weirdos who still support Lula anyways lmaaaao. They also have no strong political reference to justify themselves, with the closest to represent that camp - Gabriel Boric in Chile - being ridiculed by the mainstream left anyways and unpopular at home.

It’s beautiful in the sense that we never had a close of a consensus in international policy as we have nowadays thanks to this “revolution” in the right where they aren’t able to conciliate the contradictions between their old support of the West and Big Corporations with the reality those institutions now push everything they despise the most: LGBT agenda; Gender agenda; Racial agenda; Environmental agenda; Pro-Democracy agenda etc.

While this contradiction doesn’t really exist for the left because those same institutions are the same that always pushed AGAINST all of those things here even if they defended it inside the 1st world. It wasn’t Russia or China that promoted more than 20 years of dictatorship in our country, but the ones now posing as its “defenders” and “gatekeepers”. Latin America is not freaking Eastern Europe, we’re much closer to Africa on that sense politically.

I always dreamed of this moment where the neoliberal right would become irrelevant and it’s finally real hehehe. I think this is more in Brazil though, neolibs in both right and left are still very much present throughout all of LatAm.

Who knew Bolsonaro, despite all his destructive power, would work so well on imploding the neoliberal right thanks to his copycat nature in regards Trump narratives and tactics?

Bolsonaro may be over but hopefully “Bolsonarism” will keep being the face of the right for the next years so we can have:

A) A “Silent Consensus” on foreign policy issues, where you only have the mainstream media going nuts about but both right and left majority camps silently agreeing with it, at most only pretending to disagree in order to “oppose” the camp in power.

This cohesion makes getting things done on a geopolitical scale much much easier, with zero or weak opposition.

Bolsonarists counter to Brazil under Lula buying cheap Russian oil to sell it more expensive to the West was that Bolsonaro did MORE to safeguard business with Russia, visiting Putin just before the war to ensure fertilizers trade would be safe.

Their complain about Lula is that he’s the TRUE globalist pro-western bootlicker for working with Europe on environmental agenda to “sell out” the Amazon lmaaaao. Meanwhile westerners are going kinda mad with Lula positions in the realm of the BRICS.

We’re now all under a geopolitically realist “self-benefit” nationalist agreement on the matter, while the ultra-ideologues and globalists sound like a joke. It’s a really wonderful development.

B) The Right being so ridiculously incompetent, evil and a caricature of everything the left always said they were that the fence-sitters in the center who prefer “moderates” finally lean more to the left.

The female vote (traditionally more centrist) now suddenly favoring PT after years of it favoring PSDB is only one example. But the mainstream media of Rede Globo now being more friendly to PT because of Bolsonarism is something I never thought I would see.

It opens a lot of door for the left to slowly radicalize internally too while still looking the “pragmatic” option in comparison to the primitive buffoons now in the right.

C) It ensures the PSDB never gets back on its feet. There is a valid argument that the center-right is preferable to the extreme-right for not being a threat to democracy but that’s the only thing going for them.

Also, since Bolsonaro is out of the game, whoever replaces him (ex:Tarcisio) in the hard-right camp will likely follow similar awful policies but not be as stupid to actually try to perform a coup, especially after seeing how it ended for Bolsonaro.

If Trump gets back in 2024, that will be a giant energy fuel for the Bolsonarist right to keep its protagonism since a lot of Brazil’s right looks up to USA right as a reference point (the same isn’t necessarily true for the left though).

And the existence of this “populist right” in the world is exactly what strengths the goals the Latin American left always dreamed of in terms of asserting our freedom and independence. Because it’s the Western world itself that gets continuously weaker with the rise of this new brand of right-wing politics.

They’re the ones who started with it though by opening Pandora’s Box and they’re the ones who need to end the cycle before their own self-destruction because of it. And if they do it, it’s still a win to put this radical brand of conservative politics back in its place. To my individual perspective, it’s a win-win regardless.

Sure, the right is not an homogeneous group, but both the traditional right and the new far-right are pro-USA. Bolsonaro dislikes the American democrats, but not their country. He traveled to Florida when he left his office. Milei, Kast, Keiko Fujimori, Rodolfo Hernandez, Jeanine Añes are not anti-American too. Example of an anti-American far-right politician was Enéas Carneiro, but he has already passed away and when he ran for president of Brazil, he always had single digits. It's hard to find a conservative like Orban, Putin, Erdogan, Khamenei, Duterte in Latin America nowadays.
The left is not an homogenous group. There are leftists more focused on feminist, LGBT+, black people, indigenous people, environment, weed agenda. There are leftists more focused on south-south cooperation. But both are living under the same umbrella: they belong to the same parties, they write in the same newspapers. The left more focused on geopolitics is not against the progressive agenda on social issues: they just don't consider this agenda the most important issue. The left focused on the progressive agenda criticize some domestic issues of some countries in Middle East and Asia, but they still don't have the same approach to these countries the US has.

[Red Velvet]

Sure, the right is not an homogeneous group, but both the traditional right and the new far-right are pro-USA. Bolsonaro dislikes the American democrats, but not their country. He traveled to Florida when he left his office. Milei, Kast, Keiko Fujimori, Rodolfo Hernandez, Jeanine Añes are not anti-American too. Example of an anti-American far-right politician was Enéas Carneiro, but he has already passed away and when he ran for president of Brazil, he always had single digits. It's hard to find a conservative like Orban, Putin, Erdogan, Khamenei, Duterte in Latin America nowadays.
The left is not an homogenous group. There are leftists more focused on feminist, LGBT+, black people, indigenous people, environment, weed agenda. There are leftists more focused on south-south cooperation. But both are living under the same umbrella: they belong to the same parties, they write in the same newspapers. The left more focused on geopolitics is not against the progressive agenda on social issues: they just don't consider this agenda the most important issue. The left focused on the progressive agenda criticize some domestic issues of some countries in Middle East and Asia, but they still don't have the same approach to these countries the US has.

I agree that Bolsonaro is Anti US Democrats more than Anti-US (though he was definitely anti-Europe as hell since EU is dominated by liberals), but I would argue to you you that Trumpism is currently the largest Anti-US movement that currently exists in the world, intentionally or not.

The guy literally made them look weak in front of the global stage and caused the biggest instability in their democratic system since probably their Civil War. And Bolsonaro supported all this, even leaning to recognize Trump claims about electoral fraud initially lmao

Just imagine, to support a coup in US because you’re more inclined to the side promoting this ideologically. Doesn’t really sound much of a “support” for the country when you’re backing their crumbling into pieces for the sake of your own goals imo. I don’t approve this meddling, but I also can’t help but think it’s hilarious ~karma~ in the back of my head after they did this here in the 60s.

Also, after Trump left office, who Bolsonaro was the most friendly towards? Besides the Hungarian, Israeli and Saudi dictators? He liked Putin strongman attitude. So I think it’s wrong to attribute his position as “pro-americanism”, he wasn’t in favor of any country, he was in favor of the ideology he believed in.

Bolsonarism likes Trump’s idea of US, the racist ideal that Latin American right loved during the Cold War for pushing conservativism, anti-communism and killing minorities in third world countries.

The more their inherent idea of “US is the big right-wing country because of cold war” gets distant as a concept - which will naturally happen due to  internal rise of populist conservativism being their biggest threat to their power endurance, pushing the establishment to a hardcore liberal approach - the stronger the trend is for these people to see US the same way as they see Europe: An unbearable “woke” hellscape.

Which is how Bolsonaro himself perceived the “West” - don’t forget his constant provocations towards Macron which had the same intent. It’s the exact nature of the same condescension that Trump had towards Europeans.

See this major Bolsonarist influencer defending BRICS from Macron exactly like the left is currently doing:

https://twitter.com/kimpaim/status/1696288998526689563
And now that Macron is all scared publicly calling the “weakening of the Western forces” after the BRICS expansion, they’re mostly getting behind this grouping by default as they hate Macron/Europe with a passion exactly like Bolsonaro did.

This conservative paid bot (who likely considers Lula more of a “globalist” lmaaaao) says Lula will be forced to endure the same ill-intended provokations from Macron that Bolsonaro did, showing way more sympathy towards Lula (her ideological opponent) than to the Western leader, that’s better national cohesion, even the conservative spread propaganda favors Lula on some level:

https://twitter.com/Claudem58121023/status/1696336702858526876
I agree with you that it’s still not like that in the rest of Latin America though, probably because they didn’t have a right-wing figure that was so mimicked under Trump’s own image and brand.

In the Spanish Latin America, much of the right still fits into the “old classic right” IMO, they may be extremists in many ways but don’t necessarily represent the same brand that both Trump and Bolsonaro did.

Because we have a “Trumpist right” now fully established as the main right-wing force is exactly how we’re getting to the silent consensus I mentioned earlier. In the past it would be exactly like you said, with the Brazilian right supporting better alignment with the “West” (US, Europe) and Brazilian left supporting better alignment with the “South” (Latin America, Africa, Asia).

The rise of a right that is “Anti-Woke” changes everything though. They don’t necessarily support the same “South” agenda from the left, but many are increasingly suspicious of the ~globalist~ agenda they perceive the West to be pushing onto them.

We’re in best moment ever in history to have cohesion to do everything we ever wanted on the global stage and advance our interests as a major power. It’s exactly why Brazil is the best (and only) main leadership possible for Latin America in the moment.

The right going populist SERVES our interests here because the left has always been populist-leaning as well. That is a silent agreement despite any silly fight about cultural wars you might see around.

It’s the opposite of what happens in US, where you have a populist vs an anti-populist forces fighting, combined with the ideological disagreements they also have. They’re much much more polarized and separated than we ever were and it’s Trumpism that’s the disruptive force for them. Their strategic visions for their country couldn’t be more in conflict to each other.

It’s not a coincidence that we went in radically different paths AFTER ousting the crazy right-wingers in office. Bolsonaro existence and populism VALIDATED Lula’s power as the country leader. Trump existence and populism on the other hand, still works to QUESTION the power of the US establishment.

The left in here still having much of its populist roots instead of whatever liberal wokeness you see in the West or Chile is what in the end saved and strengthened us during these turbulent times.

[DavidB.]

The reason is the Cold War. The Latin American right lives as if we're still in the Cold War and, in all fairness, has had no real reason to change when this Cold War ended. After all, their opponents have been (and still are) Communists and anti-American Third Worldists and therefore the right feels more of a natural alliance with the U.S. (which used to support them in all sorts of ways). This actually works when Republicans are in power, but it leaves them out in the cold with Democrats in power.

On the other hand, in other places, this Cold War alignment between the local "right" and America does not exist. America turns more and more woke and has always sought to export that: after all, the "shining city on the hill" has always sought to export its revolution to the world, we're currently just experiencing its late stage iteration. And without this Cold War context, conservatives in other places are understandably less enamored with receiving America's blessings while the left embrace them.

[buritobr]

The reason is the Cold War. The Latin American right lives as if we're still in the Cold War and, in all fairness, has had no real reason to change when this Cold War ended. After all, their opponents have been (and still are) Communists and anti-American Third Worldists and therefore the right feels more of a natural alliance with the U.S. (which used to support them in all sorts of ways). This actually works when Republicans are in power, but it leaves them out in the cold with Democrats in power.

On the other hand, in other places, this Cold War alignment between the local "right" and America does not exist. America turns more and more woke and has always sought to export that: after all, the "shining city on the hill" has always sought to export its revolution to the world, we're currently just experiencing its late stage iteration. And without this Cold War context, conservatives in other places are understandably less enamored with receiving America's blessings while the left embrace them.

I agree with almost everything, but there is an observation: the Latin American right usually had good relations with American democrats. Only the far-right which emerged in the mid-2010s has a larger distance to the democrats.

[DavidB.]

I agree with almost everything, but there is an observation: the Latin American right usually had good relations with American democrats. Only the far-right which emerged in the mid-2010s has a larger distance to the democrats.

Yes, agreed - should have added this rift between Democrats and the LatAm right only started to occur since the Trump/Bolsonaro era.

[dead0man]

Why is Bukele so popular??? This guy is awful and has a rather one dimensional solution for dealing with crime, which is more prisons.

Because his approach to crime is actually working, at least for now. El Salvador's murder rate fell from 106 per 100,000 in 2015 (the highest in the world) to 7.8 in 2022, and it's now safe for women and children to go outside. I don't like the guy at all, and his Bitcoin thing is stupid, but every Salvadoran person I've met approves of what he's doing, and I have to take their views into account.

**PDF** (and it's in Spanish)

91% agree a lot or somewhat with the actions. The actions taken by the Bukele administration are approved by almost nine out of ten adults in the country. Support for what is done by the government tends to be widespread, regardless of the socioeconomic level, age or educational level of the person.

it's hard to get 91% of people to agree the sky is blue

edit-if crime is rampant, and then it's not, you don't really care how the sausage got made, even if two of your shadier cousins have been missing for months

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, the bottom line is that Bukele's predecessors should never have let crime get as bad as it did.