2026 FL GOV - Donald Trump Jr. & Kimberly Guilfoyle considering early endorsement of Matt Gaetz

[Meatball Slayer]

Donald Trump Jr. and his wife, Kimberly Guilfoyle, are considering an early endorsement of a hypothetical Matt Gaetz gubernatorial bid to succeed term-limited Ron DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/flvoicenews/status/1694803588365652264?s=46&t=u7yEjAstjG...

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Democrats have ran their best possible candidate for Senate this time, but if she loses by 2 while Biden loses by 8, I could see her running again for governor in 2026. In that case, she probably beats Gaetz (and it might not be close given DeSantis's approvals will be in the tank by then).

The final slaying of Meatball will come when a Democratic governor is elected in FL in 2026 (of course, Republicans still have comfortable majorities in both chambers to check the governor and prevent anything remotely left of center from being passed).

[Spectator]

One of the very few Republicans who could lose a statewide race in Florida.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

One of the very few Republicans who could lose a statewide race in Florida.

If the environment is right, way more Republicans than just Gaetz could lose. This is a governors race we're talking about, not a federal one. This is especially true if DeSantis becomes unpopular.

Did anyone think McAuliffe could lose Virginia in January 2021?

[Meatball Slayer]

Democrats have ran their best possible candidate for Senate this time, but if she loses by 2 while Biden loses by 8, I could see her running again for governor in 2026. In that case, she probably beats Gaetz (and it might not be close given DeSantis's approvals will be in the tank by then).

The final slaying of Meatball will come when a Democratic governor is elected in FL in 2026 (of course, Republicans still have comfortable majorities in both chambers to check the governor and prevent anything remotely left of center from being passed).

DMP won’t outperform Biden by *that* much with presidential polarization. I could see Scott +5, Trump +8, but not a bigger deviation than that.

[Meatball Slayer]

https://twitter.com/citizenfreepres/status/1694711823654961517?s=46&t=u7yEjA...

[Meatball Slayer]

One of the very few Republicans who could lose a statewide race in Florida.

I don’t think he’d lose, but it depends on the national environment and if DeSantis’ approval ratings are down by November 3, 2026.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Democrats have ran their best possible candidate for Senate this time, but if she loses by 2 while Biden loses by 8, I could see her running again for governor in 2026. In that case, she probably beats Gaetz (and it might not be close given DeSantis's approvals will be in the tank by then).

The final slaying of Meatball will come when a Democratic governor is elected in FL in 2026 (of course, Republicans still have comfortable majorities in both chambers to check the governor and prevent anything remotely left of center from being passed).

DMP won’t outperform Biden by *that* much with presidential polarization. I could see Scott +5, Trump +8, but not a bigger deviation than that.

This is the same amount Rubio outperformed Trump in 2016 (the only cycle where every Senate race went the same way as the President). I wouldn't be surprised if the Senate/President margins reversed. Rick Scott is a very weak incumbent.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R. I would love to say "I'm so sorry, Florida-"but f*** you! You bring this kind of s*** on yourselves.

That's a big slap in the face to Nunez and Sanchez though.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Safe R. I would love to say "I'm so sorry, Florida-"but f*** you! You bring this kind of s*** on yourselves.

That's a big slap in the face to Nunez and Sanchez though.

If Trump wins FL by high single digits, it's definitely not safe R in 2026.

[Vosem]

In a Republican midterm, this race could quite easily be an underrated Democratic target.

[Pollster]

Fentrice Driskell will be the Democratic nominee here, and Gaetz as the Republican nominee probably gives her as clear a shot as possible.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Fentrice Driskell will be the Democratic nominee here, and Gaetz as the Republican nominee probably gives her as clear a shot as possible.

Driskell is nowhere near as strong as DMP, but it might be well enough, especially versus Gaetz (and especially if it's a Trump midterm).

DeSantis will be a bigger factor than Gaetz. Although Gaetz being the nominee will make it easier (it will be like Kansas in 2018, though Florida will be less red than Kansas was then).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Fentrice Driskell will be the Democratic nominee here, and Gaetz as the Republican nominee probably gives her as clear a shot as possible.

No, not really.

Look at all of Florida's recent Governors - a son of a former President (Bush), a former Attorney General and State Senator (Crist), a prominent businessman (Scott), and a former Congressman (DeSantis). They are all solid, well known people. Of them, only Rick Scott was relatively obscure, and he had the funds to overcome that.

Nobody knows who Fentrice Driskell is. I barely know anything about her, other than what she looks like and that she's in the legislature or something. Gaetz is a known quantity with a base of support that is more loyal than even DeSantis's 2018 base.

Unless Democrats nominate Niki Fried, then Gaetz is still the frontrunner.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Fentrice Driskell will be the Democratic nominee here, and Gaetz as the Republican nominee probably gives her as clear a shot as possible.

No, not really.

Look at all of Florida's recent Governors - a son of a former President (Bush), a former Attorney General and State Senator (Crist), a prominent businessman (Scott), and a former Congressman (DeSantis). They are all solid, well known people. Of them, only Rick Scott was relatively obscure, and he had the funds to overcome that.

Nobody knows who Fentrice Driskell is. I barely know anything about her, other than what she looks like and that she's in the legislature or something. Gaetz is a known quantity with a base of support that is more loyal than even DeSantis's 2018 base.

Unless Democrats nominate Niki Fried, then Gaetz is still the frontrunner.

DMP would also be strong if she puts up a stronger than expected showing in the Senate race and gets name recognition from it (she's in the Miami-area already, which is 30% of Floridans). It would be like a John James scenario (though maybe enough to win given the environment and given that Gaetz is much weaker than peters).

[Pollster]

Fentrice Driskell will be the Democratic nominee here, and Gaetz as the Republican nominee probably gives her as clear a shot as possible.

No, not really.

Look at all of Florida's recent Governors - a son of a former President (Bush), a former Attorney General and State Senator (Crist), a prominent businessman (Scott), and a former Congressman (DeSantis). They are all solid, well known people. Of them, only Rick Scott was relatively obscure, and he had the funds to overcome that.

Nobody knows who Fentrice Driskell is. I barely know anything about her, other than what she looks like and that she's in the legislature or something. Gaetz is a known quantity with a base of support that is more loyal than even DeSantis's 2018 base.

Unless Democrats nominate Niki Fried, then Gaetz is still the frontrunner.

That's all well and good but doesn't really change the reality of what I wrote.

[2016]

Gaetz is too much of a lunatic and too toxic to win a General Election even in Florida. If Gaetz runs all of his past will unravel very quickly. The Guy has just too much baggage.

My gut feel is that Nunez, Moody and Patronis will make some sort of a Deal.

I could see Moody agreeing to be Jeanette Nunez' Running Mate allowing Florida Department of Law Enforcement Director Mark Glass to run for AG!

[Not Me, Us]

Fentrice Driskell will be the Democratic nominee here, and Gaetz as the Republican nominee probably gives her as clear a shot as possible.

No, not really.

Look at all of Florida's recent Governors - a son of a former President (Bush), a former Attorney General and State Senator (Crist), a prominent businessman (Scott), and a former Congressman (DeSantis). They are all solid, well known people. Of them, only Rick Scott was relatively obscure, and he had the funds to overcome that.

Nobody knows who Fentrice Driskell is. I barely know anything about her, other than what she looks like and that she's in the legislature or something. Gaetz is a known quantity with a base of support that is more loyal than even DeSantis's 2018 base.

Unless Democrats nominate Niki Fried, then Gaetz is still the frontrunner.

That's all well and good but doesn't really change the reality of what I wrote.

Why do you think she's such a shoe-in to be the Dem nominee?

[MargieCat]

He can pick Laura Loomer as his running mate.

[Meatball Slayer]

Gaetz is too much of a lunatic and too toxic to win a General Election even in Florida. If Gaetz runs all of his past will unravel very quickly. The Guy has just too much baggage.

My gut feel is that Nunez, Moody and Patronis will make some sort of a Deal.

I could see Moody agreeing to be Jeanette Nunez' Running Mate allowing Florida Department of Law Enforcement Director Mark Glass to run for AG!

Bold of you to think Nuñez survives a Republican primary.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Even with a normal Republican nominee (or if DeSantis changed the constitution to run for a third term), I can see a similar underperformance as Newsom given that DeSantis is rapidly running the state to the ground (around 11% below the previous Presidential result).

Besides the extremely authoritarian cultural wars which will get less popular the longer they drag on, Democrats would be wise to touch the insurance crisis (insurance companies are pulling out at a rapid rate, causing the cost of living to skyrocket). Florida has one of the highest inflation rates in the nation right now.

[MargieCat]

Gaetz is too much of a lunatic and too toxic to win a General Election even in Florida. If Gaetz runs all of his past will unravel very quickly. The Guy has just too much baggage.

My gut feel is that Nunez, Moody and Patronis will make some sort of a Deal.

I could see Moody agreeing to be Jeanette Nunez' Running Mate allowing Florida Department of Law Enforcement Director Mark Glass to run for AG!

Bold of you to think Nuñez survives a Republican primary.

I really don't see Nuñez having a statewide political future. Not sure which area of Miami she represented in the state house, but I could see her being a congresswoman in either the 26th, 27th, or 28th districts, if one of those ever opens up.

[Aurelius2]

Rebekah Jones should run for the Dem nom to give us all a rematch of the Gaetz/Jones race from hell that Gaetz's district had to suffer from last fall, but on a bigger and more entertaining scale.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Republicans are certainly overplaying their hand in Florida. You can't govern a Trump +3 state like a Trump +30 state (or like you're dictator for life) and expect no consequences.

6 week abortion ban, sunsetting Social Security/Medicare, and banning AP courses certainly have to be losing positions in Florida. DeSantis seems slightly above water in Disney in the last poll taken, but the longer this war drags on, the less popular it will get, and it certainly will be unpopular by 2026.

Furthermore, repeatedly focusing on imaginary cultural wars while insurance continues to skyrocket (Florida's insurance rates are 4x the nation's due to insurance companies pulling out fast) is extremely tone deaf.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On Facebook they have a poll showing Phil Ehr up 46/44 on Scott and Brown up 45/44 and ALLRED down 42/37 if we defeat Scott we can win the Gov, Phil Ehr is on Act blue not Powell it's a long way til Aug 24 D primary

I know Conserv dint wantta to believe in D Phil Ehr but he is a Vet just like Ernst, Kunce and Slotkin and will be tough to beat and we won the Deegan race FL is moving leftward like the rest of the country