Chapter One: The Heir.
Friday, November 10th, 2006.
[1]
It was a cold, wet, slightly foggy day in November, typical weather for Tallahassee as winter crept ever so closer. The night before, at the Governor’s Club downtown (the esteemed establishment of choice for Florida’s political titans) the powerbrokers celebrated their victory in the gubernatorial and Senate elections. Now, they stood groggy and hungover, sitting, standing, or tiredly hoovering around a third-floor conference room in the appropriately named George Bush Republican Center on Jefferson Street. The non-descript three story brick building, secluded in the shadow of the oak trees that dotted the streets, was playing host to several key figures in Florida politics.
Present were Rick Wilson, a vertically challenged political consultant with a gift for fiery invective, as well as Randy Enwright, a key figure in the
Bush v. Gore fight that had played out at the start of the decade, and the Architect himself, Karl Rove. They would form the nucleus of the political apparatus that would eventually evolve into a planned presidential campaign. Being a figure of national prominence with a Fox News contract and a reputation that proceeded him everywhere he went, Rove’s presence in Tallahassee had already reached the press when he was spotted by a reporter from the
Tallahassee Democrat arriving at the airport that morning.
“He must be here to see Jeb.”And he was. As Rove and the other awaited on him, the outgoing Governor was just around the corner at the capitol building, hosting an exhausted Attorney General and Governor-elect Charlie Crist for a post-election press conference. The Governor, though stocky, was still in his prime and was known as a high energy executive who regularly traversed the 22 stories of the Florida capital building way of the stairwell. With a record of pragmatic problem solving and sensible conservative policies, Bush had the credentials and the name recognition needed to present himself as a credible contender for the Presidency. Both his father and his brother had encouraged him to run in 2008 from the moment Ohio was called for Kerry on election night ‘04.
It was still drizzling and cold when the Governor, escorted by a lone State Trooper and chauffeured in a black SUV, pulled up to the George Bush Republican Center for the afternoon conference. Taking the exterior stairs up to the third floor, even as the rain beat down on him and a bitter cold breeze blew through the downtown area of the city, the Governor had his mind set on avenging the family legacy. Both his father and brother had been dispatched in their reelection efforts by their challengers, and he was determined to avoid this fate come 2012. But of course, to lose reelection, one must first win election. Which was why Bush had gathered this conclave for the first true conversations about his prospective presidential campaign.
After exchanging their pleasantries, the four gathered around a table while one of Wilson’s college interns hurriedly plugged in a laptop to a projector. A PowerPoint presentation was projected onto the wall, and the lights were turned off as the men gathered around in silence. Wilson, cloaked by the darkness of the room, began explaining to the Governor the latest results of a poll he had commissioned which showed him maintaining a six point lead over his nearest challenger. The others murmured in agreement here and there with some of Wilson’s points, but otherwise, none questioned the results of the surveys and focus groups that Wilson arranged. All of them were well aware of the Governor and his political acumen, as well as his various strengths and weaknesses as a campaigner.
“I don’t want to start this with an exploratory committee” said Jeb,
“because there is nothing really to explore. I’m in.”The others were hardly skeptical; conservatives and Republicans had grumbled about Kerry from the day he took office, with some even suggesting that his victory was illegitimate. There had been a hair-brained scheme to attempt to object to the counting of Ohio’s electoral votes when it became clear that John Kerry would carry Ohio after a divisive and chaotic statewide recount. Jeb had stayed rather quiet throughout the whole brouhaha over the Ohio voting machines, confident that the victory he had delivered for his brother in Florida that year (a nine point spread over Kerry) had demonstrated to the whole Republican Party that he was a loyal team player.
Yet truth be told, Jeb was hedging his bets. He knew that his own shot at the Presidency would not come until 2012 at the earliest, should his brother win reelection. He also knew that he'd be old news come 2012, out of office for six years and possibly overshadowed by his George Hamilton-look-a-like successor Charlie Crist. When his brother fell short in Ohio, Jeb was privately relieved. The Bush name was tarnished after two defeats in 1992 and 2004, but they had always bounced back, and this time, it was Jeb who had possession of the ball.
"None of us doubted your intent to run, Jeb" Enwright noted,
"but there are going to be certain challenges along the way. And those need to be addressed now so when they arise, they can be met.""I mean, yeah, George Allen might be a problem from the right and McCain might take up some room in my lane" Jeb conceded,
"but I just don't see any other credible challengers who can stand up against my record.""It's not just the national scene you should be concerned about" warned Wilson,
"not everyone here is going to be onboard.""Rudy isn't going to steal any endorsements from me here - not any big ones, certainly.""The conservatives voted for Gallagher in the primary more enthusiastically than they voted for Putnam" Wilson continued, referring to Senator-elect Adam Putnam, who after three terms in the House of Representatives had managed to upend incumbent Bill Nelson in the recent midterms. "
And they are pissed at you. They may be a bunch of rubes, but they are a bunch of rubes who don't like you and don't trust the party either.""I understand where you're coming from" interjected Enwright,
"but I don't see it necessarily that way. The Governor has always been popular here, even amongst conservatives. Crist and Greer are the ones who aren't trusted. If we don't embrace them, we won't have any real issues here. I think most Florida Republicans would be happy to have another Bush back in the White House."“Jim Greer is Charlie’s boy” said Jeb, referencing the fact that the Republic Party of Florida’s chairman – whose office was just a floor below them –
“keep your voices down, he might be listening through the door” he joked.
"With his pants down at his ankles" Rove added. Maybe he was, for all Jeb knew. He didn’t quite seem to care if Greer, who was pointedly not invited to the summit, could overhear him or not. He may have been Chairman, but it was Jeb who dominated the Republican Party of Florida.
Bush's plan to be the first entrant into the Republican race was nixed early on, in part due to Enwright's warning that it would give the conservative wing of the Republican Party ample time to label Bush as the personification of the unpopular and distrusted establishment. Even if Bush had decided to go for an immediate announcement after the Tallahassee summit, it wouldn't have mattered. Within days of the 2006 midterms, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Senators John McCain of Arizona and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina had already entered the fray. Similarly, on the Democratic side, President Kerry was facing a primary challenger in the form of progressive Congressman Dennis Kucinich. With the presidential field growing rapidly, there was increased pressure on Jeb Bush to put together a campaign apparatus and quickly.
Danny Diaz and Tim Miller were brought aboard first, both agreeing to join the Bush shadow campaign as Communications Director and Spokesperson respectively. Randy Enwright meanwhile was asked to take over as campaign manager, a position he was a natural fit for due to his prior experience as Executive Director of the Republican Party of Florida. He declined, however, and recommended instead that Bush hire Sally Bradshaw, a trusted aide and long time adviser, which Jeb ultimately did. With the help of Karl Rove's American Crossroads PAC, the Bush shadow campaign was quickly able to line up influential donors as the former Florida Governor inched closer to announcing his candidacy.
The Bush campaign was proactive in addressing potential early hurdles; there was already an unspoken code of silence in Florida in regards to covering the more than occasional hurdles caused by his daughter Noelle and her rumored addiction issues, but it was not certain if that would hold in the national press.
Then there was the legacy of his brother's Presidency. The 2000 presidential election and subsequent Florida recount had left him badly, perhaps even mortally, wounded in political terms before he even assumed office. Then there was the Iraq War which had started under controversial and polarizing circumstances, fracturing the national unity fostered by the 9/11 attacks. The Bush brand was damaged goods, and with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq still raging on, many Republicans were more than ready to move on from the dynasty that had come to be associated with conflict. Fortunately for Bush, the bulk of the Republican Party's 2008 crop of candidates were on record as being vocal and vigorous supporters of the war too. This put them all in an awkward position as the Republican base, so viciously opposed to President Kerry, had turned on the conflict over the course of the 44th President's administration, which had failed to successfully pacify Iraq in preparation for the President's promised drawdown of American troops.
In early December, with the first of Bush's challengers already in the race, and with his lead in the polls now threatened by active opposition, the outgoing Governor decided to sit down for a major interview with Fox News's Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes. The interview was supposed to be a friendly introduction of the soon to be former Governor to a Republican primary electorate that knew him well as a Governor and were now awaiting to see if he could pass the same test his elder brother had done eight years earlier. The interview proved to be a disaster. Bush waffled on Iraq, seemingly admitting that the invasion was a mistake and that the intelligence suggesting Saddam Hussein was building weapons of mass destructions was bad. Yet in the same breath, he repeatedly backed up his brother, claiming that the last Bush administration had acted in good faith. His jumbled response to Colmes's questioning - which could hardly be described as forceful - left a poor impression on the audience watching.
Overall, reaction to the interview was widespread amongst Republicans; most opposition to Bush came from the right-wing Tea Party movement, a libertarian-tinged slice of the GOP electorate who were angered and motivated to action by President Kerry's two landmark healthcare laws, both of which were passed by narrow margins thanks to the bipartisan support of former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Frist, who was practically ran out of Washington by his own constituents in the 2006 midterm elections as a result of this ultimate betrayal, was an example of a prominent Bush supporter. This rankled many Republicans, many of whom would have otherwise been enthused by the outgoing Governor's record in Florida.
The idea that he was out of touch seemed to offend Bush; during his eight years in Tallahassee, Bush maintained a public email account that allowed him to stay in touch with citizens of all walks of life and hear from the electorate directly on the policies that he had implemented. His campaign managed to capitalize on this by releasing a selection of correspondence in the form of a book that sought to highlight and humanize the former Governor, but it failed to sell well and raised less money from sales than it originally cost to publish and print.
There were also reported financial concerns that embarrassed Bush; during his eight years as Governor, he had missed out on a major real estate boom. Despite coming from a wealthy political family, Bush himself was of relatively modest means. As he prepared to leave public life, Bush looked to his family for financial support, knowing that the presidential campaign would require him to go on the campaign trail almost immediately after leaving office in January. The campaign could support itself, his aides said, and the bunglers were willing to shell out millions to his effort, which gave the Governor a degree of confidence that he could move forward despite his inability to self-fund. Bush's ability to coral donors behind him was a continued source of irritation to Senator McCain, whose own candidacy began to struggle financially very early on. "They're selling his last name, and these guys are dumb enough to buy it again" grumbled the Arizonan Senator to his own campaign aides, a theme that was similarly picked up upon by Governor Romney, who complained to his wife that he would not have to self-fund his efforts if there were sufficient donor support to match his own donations.
The campaign may not have lacked funding, but it still seemed that the electorate was lacking enthusiasm for the campaign. Though Bush decided against an exploratory committee, he was still none the less in a exploratory phase. His trips to Iowa and New Hampshire were not particularly well received, with the Governor falling victim to a pervasive distrust of the political establishment that he almost personified. In South Carolina and his home-state of Florida, he fared better, but this wasn't good enough - a Giuliani or McCain win in New Hampshire or a Romney victory in Iowa could both crater his momentum heading into South Carolina and Florida, a scenario that Bush was keen on avoiding.
Yet despite these early hurdles, Bush was convinced that he was the best general election candidate to face President Kerry. The primaries were a nuisance, but his coronation candidacy would prevail. The road to the White House started in the corn fields of Iowa, sure, but it would end with confetti dropping on him and his family on some stage in Miami. Bush was not about to be bullied out of the history books by his rivals. He had a legacy to live up to, old scores to settle, and long shadows to escape from. It was this legacy, this expectation that was widely held inside his family and amongst a public that didn't even particularly like him, that compelled him through the arduous process of running for President.
So in early February, Jeb Bush pulled the trigger at last.
Friday, February 2nd, 2007.
[2]
Thank you all very much. I always feel welcome at Miami-Dade College. This is a place that welcomes everyone with their hearts set on the future – a place where hope leads to achievement, and striving leads to success. For all of us, it is just the place to be in the campaign that begins today. We are 22 months from the time for choosing. The stakes for America’s future are about as great as they come. Our prosperity and our security are in the balance. So is opportunity, in this nation where every life matters and everyone has the right to rise.
Already, the choice is taking shape. The party now in the White House is planning a no-suspense primary, for a no-change election. To hold onto power. To slog on with the same agenda under another name: That’s our opponents’ call to action this time around. That’s all they’ve got left.
You and I know that America deserves better.
They have offered a progressive agenda that includes everything but progress. They are responsible for the slowing down of what was once, only a few short years ago, the fast growing economy in human history. They are responsible for the biggest debt increases ever, a massive tax increase on the middle class, the relentless buildup of the regulatory state, and the swift, mindless draw-down of a military that was generations in the making.
I, for one, am not eager to see what another four years would look like under that kind of leadership. This is what it comes down to. Our country is on a very bad course. And the question is: What are we going to do about it?
The question for me is: What am I going to do about it?
And I have decided.
I am a candidate for president of the United States."
[1] Taken from
Wikipedia Commons (Florida Memory Project)
[2] Taken from
Wikipedia Commons (Gage Skidmore)
