Were Clinton/Trump voters more common than Trump/Biden voters?

[E-Dawg]

The swing from Trump to Biden is usually attributed to 2016 non voters & 3rd party voters voting for Biden. So although there was a consistent Biden swing among most places in the country that lead to his victory, they rarely ever exceeded over about 15 points. There doesn't seem to be evidence of Trump/Biden voters really affecting the 2020 election results (outside of maybe New England and Delaware).

On the other hand, in the Rio Grande and Miami-Dade, they were massive Clinton/Trump swings that easily exceeded swings Biden got anywhere in the country, with many obvious Clinton/Trump voters. So I am wondering if there were actually more Clinton/Trump voters than their were Trump/Biden voters, mainly due to Trump flipping a decent amount of Cubans and rural Hispanices. I just can't think of any equivalent demographic group that had a non-negliable amount of Trump/Biden voters. Do you guys think it is likely that Trump flipped more raw voters from Clinton than Biden did from Trump?

[South Dakota Democrat]

How would Biden have won, then, if there weren't more Trump/Biden voters?  Higher turnout actually seems to have benefited the GOP, so I don't think a turnout differential is the explanation.

[Pres Mike]

The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.

[kwabbit]

The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.

The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.

In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.

[Pres Mike]

The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.

The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.

In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.

I’m not sure what the disagreement is. Your numbers sound right. In the end, the huge increase in turnout of new voters definitely benefit Trump in the RGV. They probably was slight movement of Clinton-Trump voters, but not as pronounced as first time Hispanic voters who support oil/gas or were anti locked down 

[kwabbit]

The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.

The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.

In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.

I’m not sure what the disagreement is. Your numbers sound right. In the end, the huge increase in turnout of new voters definitely benefit Trump in the RGV. They probably was slight movement of Clinton-Trump voters, but not as pronounced as first time Hispanic voters who support oil/gas or were anti locked down 

If my numbers sound right, then that's a 50 pt margin swing among them too. It seems almost paradoxical, but the swings among existing voters in the RGV were likely about as large as the swings as a whole, even as new voters were extremely and disproportionately pro-Trump.

[E-Dawg]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=558541.msg9153237#msg9153237

This is an interesting feature of the 2020 election that has been discussed before but is more pronounced than ever now that's I've finished my national swing map. For those of you who don't know, this is a project where I basically drew districts of roughly 100k people each meant to represent a distinct community or "COI".

What I found is kind of incredible. There are 40 "COI"s that swung over 20 points to Trump in 2020. There was only 1 COI that swung over 20 points to Biden, and just barely; a suburban Atlanta seat in the outer part of Gwinnett County. This is despite the fact that on net, the Country swung towards Biden.

Also interesting is that all of the COIs that swung over 20 points to Trump where located in CA (5), TX (14), FL (16), NY (4), and NJ (1).



Link to map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fc79c4ac-54ba-4d8b-8612-b977547778dd

My theory is that most of Biden's gains can be attributed in large part to Demographic changes, not actual vote flipping. Realistically, demographic changes can only work so fast; you can't just spawn a community of 100k liberals overnight or even in the span of 4 years. This explains why there are so many COIs that swung 10-15 points to Biden, but after the 15 point mark there's a very stark drop off, and the max swing was Biden + 20.55.

Trump's gains on the other hand were caused by actual vote flipping, particularly in very homogenous Hispanic and Asian communities. Even if Biden did vote-flip amongst certain groups in suburbs, the suburbs are diverse to the point where that group's swing would be dilluted in a COI of 100k people.

It's interesting to think about how Trump may have flipped more voters from 2016, but still lost the election due to demographic changes. If true, it spells some trouble for the GOP long term (though it might also spell trouble for Dems that they aren't outright flipping significant swaths of voters the way the GOP is).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.

The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.

In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.

Exactly this. Turnout went up significantly in 2020 compared to 2016, and if you are still getting the same raw total of votes then that means there is absolutely vote flipping going on.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.

The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.

In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.

It is copium However I do wonder if that reason republicans didn’t gain much with Hispanics in 2022 is because the r leaning ones didn’t vote?

[Ferguson97]

Unless Biden had a massive advantage with first-time voters, I don't see how there could possibly be more Clinton-Trump voters than Trump-Biden voters considering Biden won.

[PickleMan]

It seems very unlikely, at least considering the 2016-2020 swing, even when you factor in 2016 third party voters who swung to Biden.