Colorado 2008

[Kevin]

It could be argued that Colorado isn't trending Democratic and that is just repeating a trend as they have lected very liberal people before for example Gary Hart.

I don't know why that wouldn't be considered trending Democratic, however. Ohio was once a Democratic stronghold, then it went GOP, now it's trending Democratic again. Simple enough. The same could go for Colorado (except it doesn't; Colorado hasn't been near the center of the spectrum in decades, and 1964 was more of a fluke than anything else given the results of the surrounding years).

It could be argued that Colorado is trending Democratic for the time being which I think it is. The same goes for Ohio too.

Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio are a number of states all trending Democratic; there may be others that I have not mentioned.  Georgia and Louisiana are two states trending Republican - I am not sure of any others.

Florida is a Republican state just look at it, For example in 2000 Bush won it by what 500 Votes? Then in 2004 he won it by a comfortable margin, Also look at their Governor's race this year, The Republican held the Governor's mansion by a good margin despite it being a very Democratic year, Also Bill Nelson would have been in big trouble this year had it been a more Republican year and the Republican canidate being more sane. MI could also be trending Republican but if it is it's trending slowly.     

Hard to say.  I think Florida has moved slightly GOP, but not to the extent you think.  Its basically the same level it was against the national average in 96.  It was basically 2.5 points more GOP than the national average, after being .5% more Republican than the national average in  2000.  Some movement not a ton, and it moved to about where it was in 96 (about 3 points more GOP than the national average.

Also Charlie Crist being a moderate did help the Gov race there.  If he was more conservative, it would have been closer. 

Florida's still drifting towards the Republicans, Also Crist is fairly Conservative, He has just targeted the issues people care more about.   

[Tender Branson]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

[Rawlings]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

DEAL!

You're betting against history, buddy (and I would argue, reality).  I will post a yardsign for the week after the election if Colorado goes blue, reading, "Colorado is a blue state."  I've got some yardsign hook-ups and I can get it nice and pretty.  I'll also post the pics.

I live in suburban Denver and, just to give you an idea about how passionately conservative much of the state is, if my yard isn't fire-bombed the sign will certainly be mutilated

[Tender Branson]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

DEAL!

You're betting against history, buddy (and I would argue, reality).  I will post a yardsign for the week after the election if Colorado goes blue, reading, "Colorado is a blue state."  I've got some yardsign hook-ups and I can get it nice and pretty.  I'll also post the pics.

I live in suburban Denver and, just to give you an idea about how passionately conservative much of the state is, if my yard isn't fire-bombed the sign will certainly be mutilated

A yard-sign with a 70$ glued on it ? Because I can make a yard sign myself without spending 70$. You need a higher stake for your bet, if not I just burn a 10€ bill ...

[Jaggerjack]

IMO, if Colorado doesn't go blue in 2008, it WILL by 2012, as the Republican grip on the Rocky Mountains continues to wane.

[Rawlings]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

DEAL!

You're betting against history, buddy (and I would argue, reality).  I will post a yardsign for the week after the election if Colorado goes blue, reading, "Colorado is a blue state."  I've got some yardsign hook-ups and I can get it nice and pretty.  I'll also post the pics.

I live in suburban Denver and, just to give you an idea about how passionately conservative much of the state is, if my yard isn't fire-bombed the sign will certainly be mutilated

A yard-sign with a 70$ glued on it ? Because I can make a yard sign myself without spending 70$. You need a higher stake for your bet, if not I just burn a 10€ bill ...

$70 plus the sign.  You've got yourself a deal!  The Rockies are only getting more--not less--conservative.  Where is the greatest growth of megachurches?  The exurbs of the west.  The real force of the social conservative movement in America has subtly shifted from the south (which, generally, is going to be much more competitive over the next couple of elections as easterners move south) to the west.  People proclaim the death of conservative colorado by force of californians.  What people don't get is that just as many Texans are moving it making it more conservative.

[Jaggerjack]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

DEAL!

You're betting against history, buddy (and I would argue, reality).  I will post a yardsign for the week after the election if Colorado goes blue, reading, "Colorado is a blue state."  I've got some yardsign hook-ups and I can get it nice and pretty.  I'll also post the pics.

I live in suburban Denver and, just to give you an idea about how passionately conservative much of the state is, if my yard isn't fire-bombed the sign will certainly be mutilated

A yard-sign with a 70$ glued on it ? Because I can make a yard sign myself without spending 70$. You need a higher stake for your bet, if not I just burn a 10€ bill ...

$70 plus the sign.  You've got yourself a deal!  The Rockies are only getting more--not less--conservative.  Where is the greatest growth of megachurches?  The exurbs of the west.  The real force of the social conservative movement in America has subtly shifted from the south (which, generally, is going to be much more competitive over the next couple of elections as easterners move south) to the west.  People proclaim the death of conservative colorado by force of californians.  What people don't get is that just as many Texans are moving it making it more conservative.

And add New Yorkers and Massachusettsians (?) and that adds to the growing Democratic population. And you're forgetting that the Democrats continue to close the gap in registration between them and the Republicans.

If Colorado was really getting more conservative, I doubt the Democrats could have made the gains there that they made in the past four years. No, I think that if it were getting more conservative, we'd get another Texas.

[Tender Branson]

Response I got from Research 2000 asking if they intend to poll CO:

"If someone would commission us, we would gladly do it. Usually the Denver post commissions us, however I do not think they will do anything until after Labor Day.
 
Thank you for inquiring."

...

Hmm. Possibly means that Smash and I will have to continue arguing with Rawlings over the next couple of months about how CO will vote in 2008. Unless some other pollster helps us out ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO will be close at the end, the last USA/Today Gallup poll in 2004 had it tossup/lean GOP it can be argued either side of the equation.

[Tender Branson]

CO will be close at the end, the last USA/Today Gallup poll in 2004 had it tossup/lean GOP it can be argued either side of the equation.

The last 10 poll Colorado average in 2004 had Bush up 6.5%, Bush won with 4.5%.

In 2006 the last 10 polls had Ritter up 16%, he won by 17%.

So, if there´s a continued series of polls in mid-2008 which show the Republican tied with the Democrat or leading up to 3%, the GOP should start to worry, because a cliffhanger is ahead.

[Tender Branson]

From the Rocky Mountain News:

An anti-abortion group has filed paperwork with the state of Colorado proposing a state constitutional amendment that would define a person as "any human being from the moment of fertilization."

Proponent Mark Meuser, of Colorado for Equal Rights, based in Peyton, said the amendment could be used as a stepping stone to challenge abortion in Colorado.

"This language defines what a person is," he said. "If it challenges (the Roe v. Wade decision that guarantees a woman's right to an abortion), that will be weighed, and it'll be up to the courts to decide at that level."

Republicans know that it's much easier to get out the vote when the consequence of not voting can be represented as burning in hell for all eternity. It's a time-honored strategy. If this makes the ballot it will definitely mobilize religious conservative voters, who also reliably vote the straight Republican ticket.

http://www.coloradopols.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3536

[Alcon]

Personally, I'm really not sure if an abortion ban amendment is going to help all that much in a presidential year.

[Smash255]

Personally, I'm really not sure if an abortion ban amendment is going to help all that much in a presidential year.

One thing the group may have forgotten (taking the average of the last 3 SUSA polls on Colorado) the state is about 58% pro choice 38% pro life.  Oops.

[Person Man]

Lol. There was something like that in Wyoming a few years ago. It failed pretty badly. (this one was an abortion ban and did include a rape exception) If you can't win in Wyoming, why would you want to try in Colorado? LOL!!

[tarheel-leftist85]

Dem 80%!

well, if richardson gets it...wasn't he governor of new mexico? i forgot, it's probably been ten minutes since i heard it

[Person Man]

I disagree. GOP COLORADO 90%. The democrats will not be allowed to run.

[Person Man]

Do you think that Rawlings is an airforce brat from the Springs?

[Tender Branson]

Do you think that Rawlings is an airforce brat from the Springs?

No, he once said that he´s from the Denver suburbs.

[Person Man]

Where? Castle Rock?

[Tender Branson]

Where? Castle Rock?

I live in suburban Denver ...

Castle Rock is hardly a suburb of Denver when it´s 35 miles away ... Isn´t Aizen from Castle Rock ?

[Jaggerjack]

Yeah, Aizen's from Castle Rock. But somehow, I have a feeling that Rawlings is from Greeley or some other far-right part of metro Denver.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Yeah, Aizen's from Castle Rock. But somehow, I have a feeling that Rawlings is from Greeley or some other far-right part of metro Denver.

I forget where he told me where he lived but it was just outside of Denver.

Castle Rock is basically the half-way point between Colorado Springs and Denver. It's a very fast growing town. I lived in the Springs for 3 1/2 years and just left there. Great city.

I will say right now, the Republican Presidential Candidate will win Colorado in '08 (unless Richardson is the nominee) and I'm not buying a Udall win yet either.

[Person Man]

The Denver burbs stretch out for an hour. Castle Rock is just before the hill from where you can see the Denver skyline.

Yeah, Aizen's from Castle Rock. But somehow, I have a feeling that Rawlings is from Greeley or some other far-right part of metro Denver.

I forget where he told me where he lived but it was just outside of Denver.

Castle Rock is basically the half-way point between Colorado Springs and Denver. It's a very fast growing town. I lived in the Springs for 3 1/2 years and just left there. Great city.

I will say right now, the Republican Presidential Candidate will win Colorado in '08 (unless Richardson is the nominee) and I'm not buying a Udall win yet either.

You will probably get that feeling from living in the Springs, Ritter won 38% in El Paso county where Salazar won 34%, Kerry 32% and Gore like 31%. I bet we can win Colorado if we break 33% in El Paso. Either way, you can't write off Colorado because of on bad poll. The DNC is there, Schaffer is getting all kinds of crap and well, Kerry ( a traditional NE liberal) was about to carry 47.25% of the vote, the most for a dem, a liberal dem at that, in almost 50 years!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, Aizen's from Castle Rock. But somehow, I have a feeling that Rawlings is from Greeley or some other far-right part of metro Denver.

Greeley (where my cousin goes to college) is far more moderate than Castle Rock and not really considered part of the metro either. Kind of like St. Cloud and the Twin Cities metro.

I'd guess that Rawlings is from outer Jefferson or Arapahoe Counties.

[Jaggerjack]

Yeah, Aizen's from Castle Rock. But somehow, I have a feeling that Rawlings is from Greeley or some other far-right part of metro Denver.

Greeley (where my cousin goes to college) is far more moderate than Castle Rock and not really considered part of the metro either. Kind of like St. Cloud and the Twin Cities metro.

I'd guess that Rawlings is from outer Jefferson or Arapahoe Counties.

I'd guess that Greeley's to Denver as Tracy/Stockton/Modesto's to the Silicon Valley-an exurb.

Either way, I still have trouble buying that he's right outside Denver.