Candidates who got their entire winning margin out of a single county?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2024, 01:05:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Candidates who got their entire winning margin out of a single county?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Candidates who got their entire winning margin out of a single county?  (Read 783 times)
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,169
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 19, 2023, 10:04:07 PM »

What political candidates got their winning margins out of one county?
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2023, 10:08:40 PM »

CCM 2016.
Logged
Mexican Wolf
Timberwolf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,335


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2023, 11:01:38 PM »

Chris Coons in both 2010 and 2014.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,817
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2023, 11:26:49 PM »

Any Democrat who wins in Nevada or Arizona (Clark/Maricopa counties).
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2023, 11:38:42 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2023, 12:00:43 AM by riverwalk3 »

Any Democrat who wins in Nevada or Arizona (Clark/Maricopa counties).
CCM would've lost in 2022 without Washoe. Pima is a crucial part of the Democratic coalition in Arizona.
Logged
Aurelius2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,097
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2023, 02:53:32 PM »

Any Democrat who wins in Nevada or Arizona (Clark/Maricopa counties).
CCM would've lost in 2022 without Washoe. Pima is a crucial part of the Democratic coalition in Arizona.
Yeah, this is no longer true in Nevada. Clark is slowly moving right, and Washoe is moving left.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,682
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2023, 03:58:34 PM »

It's not really the case in Arizona since Pima county is actually the bigger margin for Democrats in any recent election.
Logged
Mexican Wolf
Timberwolf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,335


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2023, 09:01:53 PM »

Would Maria Cantwell's win in 2000 count? She only won by a little over 2,000 votes, and winning King's County by 20% was absolutely vital to her win. It was also her largest margin of the 5 counties she won.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,306
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2023, 10:41:18 PM »

IL-SEN 2022?
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,092
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2023, 10:59:11 PM »

If you mean only one county wins I was expected IL-Gov 2010 to fit the bill, but Pat Quinn won three counties along the Mississippi.

Looking way back HI-Gov 1959 had William F. Quinn elected only carrying Oahu. In 1966 his opponent Burns from ‘59 would win re-election with a map almost identical, just slightly better margins across the board.

DE-Gov 2004 also fits the bill
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,143


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2023, 11:15:46 PM »

Not sure I understand the question. In any extremely close statewide race there is likely to be one county where the margin is greater than the statewide margin. Or are you asking about candidates winning while carrying only one county?
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,284
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2023, 11:43:55 PM »

Not sure I understand the question. In any extremely close statewide race there is likely to be one county where the margin is greater than the statewide margin. Or are you asking about candidates winning while carrying only one county?
It seems to be defined using a two-prong test of: 1-Where the candidate's margin of victory in one county is larger than their margin statewide and 2-Where this doesn't apply to another other county.

Based on that test Fetterman qualifies in regards to Philadelphia. Also applies to Tina Smith in 2020 actually, she would've still won without Ramsey County but obviously not without Hennepin.
Logged
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,327
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2023, 07:54:06 PM »

I would imagine this always happens in Delaware.
Logged
BigZuck08
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,091
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 1.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2023, 08:42:00 PM »

Lisa Blunt Rochester in 2022.
Logged
patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,058
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2023, 07:41:50 AM »

More extreme version of this question, are there any candidates which have won without winning any counties? Like in the UK, Kim Leadbeater winning the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election despite not having won any of the wards making up the constituency.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,750
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2023, 08:46:32 AM »

Basically every narrow Dem win in the past 20 years outside of New England?
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2023, 06:38:32 PM »

I believe this was sort of the narrative around 2008 in Missouri - McCain was seen as having been saved by high turnout in St. Charles County.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 11 queries.