Who turnout dynamics favor by state

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ran some numbers on excel and these were the results I got. Red means turnout dynamics help Republicans (NY is the most shifting the margin an estimated 4.69 points towards Rs) and Blue means turnout dyanmics help Dems (NM is the most at D+1.79).

For this research, I basically compared actual recent election results (2020 Pres) to what one would expect the state to vote like if all communities turned out equally throughout the state). This assumes that non-voters vote basically identical to existing voters of the same demographic, which might not always be the case.

Based on these calculations, the states where turnout patterns most heavily favor the GOP are where there is a significant Hispanic (or Asian) population. Both of these groups are known for being low turnout as is.

There aren't that many states where current turnout dynamics seem to favor Dems, but the few that do seem to be cases of the Dem base being very white and of significantly higher educational attainment than Republicans. New Mexico is sort of unique because a lot of Hispanic communities in the state have relatively decent turnout, but the heavily Republican communities in the southeast have very poor turnout. However, some of this low turnout could be due to many non-voting Hispanics in these communities who would likely lean less R than the voting whites.

Again, this research is imperfect because it assumes non-voters would vote identical to voters of the same demographics. It's also hard to tell who doesn't vote in some very diverse communities like Las Vegas just from election results. This probably means in a lot of states where Dems are reliant on Hispanics and Asians who live in diverse communities, Republicans true turnout advantage is stronger than topline numbers would indicate. Finally, there are some communities with large non-citizen populations who are still counted as part of the census, which likely shrinks Republicans actual turnout advantages in cities with a lot of non-white non-citizens.

*Note that no states 2020 Pres result would be changed by equalized turnout based on this study, though NC, FL, and TX would all be expected to be significantly narrower Trump wins).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a table of the specific results I got using 2020 election data.

[WalterWhite]

I thought high turnout would help the Democrats, as Democrats tend to be less affluent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I thought high turnout would help the Democrats, as Democrats tend to be less affluent.

Ye, thats what my findings show in most states.

Sorry if the color-coding is a bit confusing. Red states on the map are where Republicans benefit from *current* turnout patterns, and Dems would theoretically benefit from higher turnout. Blue states are where Democrats benefit from current turnout patterns, and Republicans would theoretically benefit from higher turnout. The vast majority of states have turnout patterns that currently favor Republicans, so high turnout would help Dems.

I think as Dems have gained with more upper-middle class voters, turnout dynamics are probably less lopsided towards Rs than they would be a couple cycles ago.