Finish this sentence: To flip Kansas, Democrats must _______.

[walleye26]

My answer would be flip Sedgwick County and win Johnson with 60%.

Kansas is obviously still heavily R, but keeping the eyes on Johnson lately, it seems to be shifting left steadily. If they could flip Sedgwick, they generally win Kansas. See Laura Kelly’s maps.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's not just one thing they can do to flip Kansas at the federal level, it'd require quite a lot of moving pieces.

The most important thing is probably favorable growth; hope KS keeps continues becoming disproportionately urban so that Johnson, Sedgewick, Wyandotte, Douglas, Shawnee, and Riley County can outvote the rural parts of the state without having to gain in rural areas or have to get NUT margins in the counties listed above.

I agree Sedgewick County flipping is probably going to be part of any path to a swingy or blue Kansas federally.

[kwabbit]

Johnson County is nearly 60% college educated, Sedgewick County is about 30%. While there is a slow D trend, Sedgewick is more likely to be the reason that Kansas doesn't become competitive than the reason it will. It voted to the right of the state in the abortion referendum after voting to the left of it in 2020 Presidential Election. There's not a lot of easy gains there.

[TwinGeeks99]

Encourage more population growth to occur in the state's biggest cities.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

They have to make inroads in the rural counties. Those places don't have a lot of people but simply lowering the R margins there makes a big difference and is a reason why Kelly won. That said, its unlikely it happens federally barring a major realignment. If Dems can't make gains in the Texas panhandle, rural Oklahoma, and rural Nebraska I don't see how they do it in rural Kansas.

[Roll Roons]

One underrated factor helping Democrats in Kansas is their improvement in small cities in Western Kansas like Garden City and Dodge City because of growing Hispanic populations.

JoCo and Wichita are the most important factors, but that should not be overlooked.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Johnson County is nearly 60% college educated, Sedgewick County is about 30%. While there is a slow D trend, Sedgewick is more likely to be the reason that Kansas doesn't become competitive than the reason it will. It voted to the right of the state in the abortion referendum after voting to the left of it in 2020 Presidential Election. There's not a lot of easy gains there.

Def a fair point. I think part of it depends upon how the non-white population continues to grow. Part of the reason the County continues to be relatively R-leaning for a city of it's size is because it's 64% white (down from 70% in 2010). On modern day coalitions, 57% white should be about the inflection point, but coalitions could def change.

I wonder if non-white voters were actually the reason the County voted to the right of the state on the abortion referendum? Black and hispanic communities are one of the few places where it seems abortion can underperform Ds in normal partisanship.