Is the Democratic coalition becoming more conservative?

[WalterWhite]

Obama-Trump voters seem to be more left-wing ideologically than Romney-Clinton voters. They gravitated towards Trump BECAUSE he was not a Garden Variety Republican. Romney-Clinton voters supported Garden Variety Republicans until 2016.

What am I seeing here?

[Agonized-Statism]

In the party at least, it's a shift that can probably be ascribed to Democrats becoming generally dominant since Reagan's famous three-legged stool fell apart after 2008 and broke up for good with Trump. Hard for some to see since we're in the middle of a transitional period, but Democrats are the party of a growing majority and the default governing party with that. Being in power more often, they find themselves on the defense for the state of the economy, foreign policy, and so on more than they used to. Hard to criticize the establishment when that means criticizing a Democrat's administration, and moreover potentially dividing the base as many painfully remember in 2016. Progressives are also much easier to shame into voting for a Democrat to their right than voters to the right of that candidate- maybe that will change when Trump is no longer around to be a bogeyman, maybe not. I do think the "this is the most important election of our lifetimes, save #ourdemocracy" stuff can only work for so long.

On the coalition, yeah, it's looking like Reagan Democrats are gone for good this time and the suburbs have avoided Republicans since Trump, but that's common knowledge. The winners of globalization now vote Democrat more often and the losers are more often attracted to the Republicans. But the extent to which this explains changes in the parties has been overstated. The Democrats' tent is getting bigger in the other direction too with the growth of the left, who are offered absolutely nothing by Republicans except maybe being more on the "bring jobs back" side of the new "move manufacturing away from China and make more resilient supply chains" consensus.

[WalterWhite]

In the party at least, it's a shift that can probably be ascribed to Democrats becoming generally dominant since Reagan's famous three-legged stool fell apart after 2008 and broke up for good with Trump. Hard for some to see since we're in the middle of a transitional period, but Democrats are the party of a growing majority and the default governing party with that. Being in power more often, they find themselves on the defense for the state of the economy, foreign policy, and so on more than they used to. Hard to criticize the establishment when that means criticizing a Democrat's administration, and moreover potentially dividing the base as many painfully remember in 2016. Progressives are also much easier to shame into voting for a Democrat to their right than voters to the right of that candidate- maybe that will change when Trump is no longer around to be a bogeyman, maybe not. I do think the "this is the most important election of our lifetimes, save #ourdemocracy" stuff can only work for so long.

On the coalition, yeah, it's looking like Reagan Democrats are gone for good this time and the suburbs have avoided Republicans since Trump, but that's common knowledge. The winners of globalization now vote Democrat more often and the losers are more often attracted to the Republicans. But the extent to which this explains changes in the parties has been overstated. The Democrats' tent is getting bigger in the other direction too with the growth of the left, who are offered absolutely nothing by Republicans except maybe being more on the "bring jobs back" side of the new "move manufacturing away from China and make more resilient supply chains" consensus.

It seems as if:

- Democratic messaging has become less policy-based and more character-based in recent years (because Trump can present himself as BOTH a moderate and a hardcore conservative), making the left-right distinction less noticeable.

- Lincoln Project supporters, who are most definitely conservative, are starting to vote for Democrats. The Obama/Romney coalitions definitely fit the left/right divide better than the Biden/Trump coalitions.

[Ferguson97]

Obama-Trump voters seem to be more left-wing ideologically than Romney-Clinton voters.

What am I seeing here?

I'm not sure, but I'd talk to an optometrist. Romney-Clinton voters are absolutely to the left of Obama-Trump voters.

[WalterWhite]

Obama-Trump voters seem to be more left-wing ideologically than Romney-Clinton voters.

What am I seeing here?

I'm not sure, but I'd talk to an optometrist. Romney-Clinton voters are absolutely to the left of Obama-Trump voters.

A lot of Romney-Clinton voters are currently Lincoln Project supporters; in other words, they are straight-up neocons. A lot of Obama-Trump voters, on the other hand, hold anti-neocon viewpoints on foreign policy and economics.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

[WalterWhite]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

Do you think we will ever have purely ideological-based coalitions? I feel like the closest we have come to that was 2004.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

Do you think we will ever have purely ideological-based coalitions? I feel like the closest we have come to that was 2004.

Leip forbid that ever happens.

Maybe not "conservative" in any ideological sense, just "pro-media/corporate establishment".

[WalterWhite]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

Do you think we will ever have purely ideological-based coalitions? I feel like the closest we have come to that was 2004.

Leip forbid that ever happens.

Maybe not "conservative" in any ideological sense, just "pro-media/corporate establishment".

Which means it could very much lend itself to conservative policies (i.e. tax breaks for the rich, business regulation, privatized welfare programs, etc...)

It seems as if conservatives were almost entirely gone from the Democratic Party by the end of the Obama Era, only for them to return during the Trump Era.

[WalterWhite]

I am also starting to notice slightly more pro-military and pro-police sentiments coming out of Democrats. While Republicans are still the more pro-military and pro-police party, it seems as if Democrats are moving "rightward" on these issues.

I am also starting to notice more pro-corporate/pro-free market sentiments coming from Democrats. Again, Republicans are still more pro-free market than Democrats, but Democrats seem to be moving rightward on these issues.

On these issues, it really seems as if Democrats are becoming more conservative.

[ottermax]

While the Democratic coalition is definitely becoming more conservative in some ways, what has surprised me is how these conservative newcomers are much more open to left-wing policy ideas than you might expect.

For example if you look at ballot measures on income taxes, school funding, healthcare, or other tax and spending proposals you might expect an inverse correlation between support and income, but instead we have seen in the past decade that these conservative suburbs are much more open to taxes and government spending than lower income areas in rural or exurban regions.

Examples: Oklahoma Question 802 - most support came from higher income urban / suburban areas, not the rural or small town areas that are most likely to benefit from the Medicare expansion
Missouri Amendment 2 - similar Medicare expansion measure with similar patterns

Anecdotally I've noticed that many of these Romney-Clinton voters have shifted to the left on a lot of key issues with more openness to healthcare expansion, social services, education funding, and especially on social issues like anti-racism, lgbt support, even when they might be regular churchgoers. It's as if the Trump era accelerated cultural progressivism for some of these people because Trump (and the Republican party as a whole lately) has created such a strong foil.

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Perhaps, with the new inclusion of educated suburban whites in the coalition during this era. But I would say overall that ideology isn't as much of the driver as it is which reality you perceive these days.

[Cyrusman]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

but then why aren't the suburb numbers better for the GOP in elections where Trump is not on the ballot?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

but then why aren't the suburb numbers better for the GOP in elections where Trump is not on the ballot?

Trump is still very salient, and the GOP is still associated with Trump. I know what voters are thinking because I think the same way with DeSantis.

Basically, they think Trump is a dictator wannabe, so they elect Democrats in Congress to reduce his power as much as possible.

If Trump died and Youngkin became the nominee, I guarantee that the Republicans gain substantially in the suburbs.

[Person Man]

Obama-Trump voters seem to be more left-wing ideologically than Romney-Clinton voters.

What am I seeing here?

I'm not sure, but I'd talk to an optometrist. Romney-Clinton voters are absolutely to the left of Obama-Trump voters.

It’s not that complicated but it is. Parties zero in on various constituencies and when groups of people lose their advocates, they begin to “go down a bad path”, and like all people who are upset and confused, they begin to ask questions or just believe things. This is where people change their minds. People can change their minds.

[Cyrusman]

Don't think so overall, as Democrats are shedding conservative minority voters and replacing them with white liberals.

I think a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are actually pretty conservative (anti-LGBTQ, low taxes, neocon, etc.) who just can't stand Trump's characters.

but then why aren't the suburb numbers better for the GOP in elections where Trump is not on the ballot?

Trump is still very salient, and the GOP is still associated with Trump. I know what voters are thinking because I think the same way with DeSantis.

Basically, they think Trump is a dictator wannabe, so they elect Democrats in Congress to reduce his power as much as possible.

If Trump died and Youngkin became the nominee, I guarantee that the Republicans gain substantially in the suburbs.

I guess I just have a hard time understanding how these voters that you say are "pretty conservative" can vote for down ballot Democrats running against those Republicans who aren't Trump, even though those down ballot Democrats probably have little in common ideology wise with them.
Who cares if he's a wannabe dictator. He won't ever be one and we saw even while he was president there were plenty of checks on him.

[Pericles]

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

Nonsense, BBB failing was about the personalities of two Senators in a 50-50 Senate. It did not lead to a backlash from Biden voters, and it just wasn't toxic like the AHCA or Obamacare were in the next midterm.

[ottermax]

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

Nonsense, BBB failing was about the personalities of two Senators in a 50-50 Senate. It did not lead to a backlash from Biden voters, and it just wasn't toxic like the AHCA or Obamacare were in the next midterm.

I think you are right - I just wonder if this new coalition of higher income voters will actually be okay with bigger government spending proposals if they are actually implemented. BBB seemed to be fine with this group but we don't actually know because it did not pass.

[WalterWhite]

While the Democratic coalition is definitely becoming more conservative in some ways, what has surprised me is how these conservative newcomers are much more open to left-wing policy ideas than you might expect.

For example if you look at ballot measures on income taxes, school funding, healthcare, or other tax and spending proposals you might expect an inverse correlation between support and income, but instead we have seen in the past decade that these conservative suburbs are much more open to taxes and government spending than lower income areas in rural or exurban regions.

Examples: Oklahoma Question 802 - most support came from higher income urban / suburban areas, not the rural or small town areas that are most likely to benefit from the Medicare expansion
Missouri Amendment 2 - similar Medicare expansion measure with similar patterns

Anecdotally I've noticed that many of these Romney-Clinton voters have shifted to the left on a lot of key issues with more openness to healthcare expansion, social services, education funding, and especially on social issues like anti-racism, lgbt support, even when they might be regular churchgoers. It's as if the Trump era accelerated cultural progressivism for some of these people because Trump (and the Republican party as a whole lately) has created such a strong foil.

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

In what ways DO you think the Democratic coalition is becoming more conservative?

[TML]

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

Nonsense, BBB failing was about the personalities of two Senators in a 50-50 Senate. It did not lead to a backlash from Biden voters, and it just wasn't toxic like the AHCA or Obamacare were in the next midterm.

I think you are right - I just wonder if this new coalition of higher income voters will actually be okay with bigger government spending proposals if they are actually implemented. BBB seemed to be fine with this group but we don't actually know because it did not pass.

Actually, BBB was very popular among the general public; the main reason it did not pass was because special interest donors bought off establishment politicians (for example, if you looked at the sources of Joe Manchin's campaign contributions, you'll notice that 93% of such contributions came from PACs and/or large individual contributions; small-dollar donations of $200 or less comprised only about 3% of his overall contributions) to oppose measures which give ordinary people economic help.

[ottermax]

While the Democratic coalition is definitely becoming more conservative in some ways, what has surprised me is how these conservative newcomers are much more open to left-wing policy ideas than you might expect.

For example if you look at ballot measures on income taxes, school funding, healthcare, or other tax and spending proposals you might expect an inverse correlation between support and income, but instead we have seen in the past decade that these conservative suburbs are much more open to taxes and government spending than lower income areas in rural or exurban regions.

Examples: Oklahoma Question 802 - most support came from higher income urban / suburban areas, not the rural or small town areas that are most likely to benefit from the Medicare expansion
Missouri Amendment 2 - similar Medicare expansion measure with similar patterns

Anecdotally I've noticed that many of these Romney-Clinton voters have shifted to the left on a lot of key issues with more openness to healthcare expansion, social services, education funding, and especially on social issues like anti-racism, lgbt support, even when they might be regular churchgoers. It's as if the Trump era accelerated cultural progressivism for some of these people because Trump (and the Republican party as a whole lately) has created such a strong foil.

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

In what ways DO you think the Democratic coalition is becoming more conservative?

Openness to funding the military / funding war, policing speech, and free trade. Also generally less anti-corporate rhetoric.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Any Romney-Clinton voter that's now permanately part of the Dem coalition are likely more liberal now then they were as Reps (Torie is a good example), although even if they hadn't changed ideologically they're being cancelled out by a bunch of progressive Zoomers who are becoming of age to vote. With most young adults holding anti-capitalist sympathies and boomers beginning to die out, I anticipate that any RW shift will be temporary and that it's likely that the base at the least (politicians are another story) will move to the left as millennials become the largest voting share.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

While the Democratic coalition is definitely becoming more conservative in some ways, what has surprised me is how these conservative newcomers are much more open to left-wing policy ideas than you might expect.

For example if you look at ballot measures on income taxes, school funding, healthcare, or other tax and spending proposals you might expect an inverse correlation between support and income, but instead we have seen in the past decade that these conservative suburbs are much more open to taxes and government spending than lower income areas in rural or exurban regions.

Examples: Oklahoma Question 802 - most support came from higher income urban / suburban areas, not the rural or small town areas that are most likely to benefit from the Medicare expansion
Missouri Amendment 2 - similar Medicare expansion measure with similar patterns

Anecdotally I've noticed that many of these Romney-Clinton voters have shifted to the left on a lot of key issues with more openness to healthcare expansion, social services, education funding, and especially on social issues like anti-racism, lgbt support, even when they might be regular churchgoers. It's as if the Trump era accelerated cultural progressivism for some of these people because Trump (and the Republican party as a whole lately) has created such a strong foil.

That all being said - as we have seen with Democrats in power there is no stomach for significant policy changes on the economic from as we observed with the death of Build Back Better.

In what ways DO you think the Democratic coalition is becoming more conservative?

Openness to funding the military / funding war, policing speech, and free trade. Also generally less anti-corporate rhetoric.

Free trade-ism is dead in both parties at this point.

[Person Man]

Any Romney-Clinton voter that's now permanately part of the Dem coalition are likely more liberal now then they were as Reps (Torie is a good example), although even if they hadn't changed ideologically they're being cancelled out by a bunch of progressive Zoomers who are becoming of age to vote. With most young adults holding anti-capitalist sympathies and boomers beginning to die out, I anticipate that any RW shift will be temporary and that it's likely that the base at the least (politicians are another story) will move to the left as millennials become the largest voting share.

I know a lot of people who are like Torie. The parents of some of the women I dated in Colorado were prime examples of this. Then again, that's Colorado, a state that voted for Bush by 8 and Biden by 14.  

For example, "Bob" used to watch "The Factor" all the time and ended up voting for Obama twice.

[DS0816]

Obama-Trump voters seem to be more left-wing ideologically than Romney-Clinton voters. They gravitated towards Trump BECAUSE he was not a Garden Variety Republican. Romney-Clinton voters supported Garden Variety Republicans until 2016.

What am I seeing here?

They are becoming, along with the Democratic Party, more corrupt.