Counties with over 100,000 residents that vote more than 60% for either party, 2020

[CookieDamage]

Might have missed a few counties but yeah, really shows how vote-rich exurbs and outer suburbs are for the GOP, and why they are so competitive/dominant in states like Ohio, Texas, and NC.

[Roll Roons]

Definitely shows why NC has been such a tough nut to crack for federal Democrats.

[CookieDamage]

Definitely shows why NC has been such a tough nut to crack for federal Democrats.

Right, the stretch from Catawba to Randolph alone nets the GOP 300k votes

[CookieDamage]

The Dem version. Dem's dominate urban cores/inner suburbs, contrasting with the GOP dominance with outer suburbs and exurbs.



---
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---

And here's one with both parties. And I'm assuming I missed a few lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Challenged myself to recall the names of all these counties and county-equivalents from memory. This is what I got.

Ds:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Cumberland ME
Barnstable MA
Essex MA
Middlesex MA
Suffolk MA
*Norfolk MA
*Hampshire MA
Berkshire MA
Providence RI
*Chittenden VT
New Haven CT
Fairfield CT
Tompkins NY
Albany NY
Westchester NY
Bronx NY
New York NY
Queens NY
Kings NY
Hudson NJ
Essex NJ
Union NJ
Middlesex NJ
Mercer NJ
Camden NJ
Philadelphia PA
Montgomery PA
Delaware PA
New Castle DE
Baltimore MD
Baltimore City MD
Howard MD
Prince George's MD
Montgomery MD
Washington DC
Norfolk VA
Fairfax VA
Arlington VA
Alexandria VA
Loudoun VA
Prince William VA
Henrico VA
Richmond VA
Newport News VA
*Hampton VA
Wake NC
Durham NC
Chatham NC
Guilford NC
Mecklenburg NC
Cuyahoga OH
Franklin OH
Macon GA
Cumberland GA
*Clarke GA
*Richmond GA
Clayton GA
DeKalb GA
Fulton GA
Douglas GA
Alachua FL
Leon FL
Orange FL
Broward FL
Ingham MI
Washtenaw MI
Wayne MI
Marion IN
Monroe IN
Davidson TN
Shelby TN
*Montgomery AL
Milwaukee WI
Dane WI
Lake IL
Cook IL
*Champaign IL
Hinds MS
Ramsey MN
Hennepin MN
*Johnson IA
Jackson MO
St. Louis MO
St. Louis City MO
Pulaski AR
Orleans LA
Douglas KS
Wyandotte KS
Dallas TX
Travis TX
Webb TX
El Paso TX
Boulder CO
Denver CO
Arapahoe CO
Bernanillo NM
Santa Fe NM
Missoula MT
*Coconino AZ
Whatcom WA
King WA
Multnomah OR
Washington OR
Humboldt CA
Sacremento CA
Yolo CA
*Solano CA
Napa CA
Santa Rosa CA
Marin CA
*Contra Costa CA
Alameda CA
San Francisco CA
San Mateo CA
*Santa Clara CA
*Santa Cruz CA
*Monterey CA
Santa Barbara CA
Los Angeles CA
San Diego CA
Honolulu HI
Hawaii HI
Maui HI

108/123

Rs

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Ocean NJ
Schuylkill PA
York PA
Adams PA
*Lycoming PA
*Franklin PA
*Blair PA
Cambria PA
Westmoreland PA
Fayette PA
*Mercer PA
Washington PA
Brunswick NC
*Onslow NC
Johnston NC
Harnett NC
*Randolph NC
*Davidson NC
Iredell NC
Hickory NC
Union NC
Gaston NC
*Rowan NC
*Berkeley SC
Horry SC
Aiken SC
*Lexington SC
Spartanburg SC
*Pickens SC
Anderson SC
*Columbiana OH
Newark OH
Licking OH
Mansfield OH
Wayne OH
*Medina OH
*Auglaize OH
Clark OH
*Miami OH
Clermont OH
Warren OH
Butler OH
Whitfield GA
Hall GA
Forsyth GA
Cherokee GA
Paulding GA
*Columbia GA
*Carroll GA
*Coweta GA
*Bartow GA
*St. Johns FL
Clay FL
Marion FL
Highland FL
Charlotte FL
*Collier FL
Indian River  FL
*Martin FL
Citrus FL
*Hernando FL
*Sumter FL
*Bay FL
*Okaloosa FL
*Santa Rosa FL
Huron MI
Allegan MI
Monroe MI
*Livingston MI
Elkhart IN
*Madison IN
*Hendricks IN
*Johnson IN
*Daviess KY
*Hardin KY
*Boone KY
*Sullivan TN
*Washington TN
Sevier TN
*Bradley TN
*Sumner TN
*Wilson TN
Williamson TN
*Maury TN
Shelby AL
Baldwin AL
Etowah AL
*Morgan AL
Fond du Lac WI
Washington WI
*Tazewell IL
*DeSoto MS
*Rankin MS
*Harrison MS
*Jackson MS
Stearns MN
Wright MN
*Franklin MO
*Cass MO
*Jasper MO
Jefferson MO
*Benton AR
Saline AR
*Craighead AR
*Sebastian AR
*Faulkner AR
*Garland AR
*St. Tammany LA
Tangipahoa LA
Livingston LA
Lafayette LA
*Terrebonne LA
*Bossier LA
*Ouachita LA
*Rapides LA
*Calcasieu LA
*Ascension LA
*Pennington SD
Canadian OK
*Grayson TX
Rockwall TX
Kaufman TX
Ellis TX
Johnson TX
*Parker TX
McLennan TX
*Gregg TX
Montgomery TX
Galveston TX
Comal TX
*Guadalupe TX
Midland TX
*Ector TX
Tom Green TX
*Wichita TX
*Potter TX
*Randall TX
*Yellowstone MT
Flathead MT
*Laramie WY
Mesa CO
*San Juan NM
*Kootenai ID
*Bonneville ID
*Cache UT
Davis UT
Utah UT
*Washington UT
Yavapai AZ
Mohave AZ
Douglas OR
Shasta CA
Mat-Su AK

78/153
*=I had to check to get it right

[CookieDamage]

Crazy how Hillary got 60% in both Miami-Dade and Osceola counties in 2016 but Biden failed to do so in both

[Stranger in a strange land]

Might have missed a few counties but yeah, really shows how vote-rich exurbs and outer suburbs are for the GOP, and why they are so competitive/dominant in states like Ohio, Texas, and NC.

Many people think that Texas votes Republican because of rural areas. While yes, Texas has a lot of rural areas, and they are VERY Republican, they're also very sparsely populated, and the actual reason for the GOP's domination of the state is that it wins the exurban counties and those with small cities, and it doesn't even have to do so overwhelmingly.

[CookieDamage]

Might have missed a few counties but yeah, really shows how vote-rich exurbs and outer suburbs are for the GOP, and why they are so competitive/dominant in states like Ohio, Texas, and NC.

Many people think that Texas votes Republican because of rural areas. While yes, Texas has a lot of rural areas, and they are VERY Republican, they're also very sparsely populated, and the actual reason for the GOP's domination of the state is that it wins the exurban counties and those with small cities, and it doesn't even have to do so overwhelmingly.

Exactly. I don't have exact numbers but the DFW exurbs, Montgomery and Brazoria counties, and Tom Green, Lubbock, Potter, and Randall counties net tons of votes for the GOP.

[CookieDamage]

Trump netted 1,100,000 votes from the dark red counties, which comprise 3,800,000 million people altogether. If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.

[Roll Roons]

If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.

Yeah, even though the blue area includes the RGV, that's more than canceled out by suburban swings. Flipping Zapata but losing Tarrant and Williamson is a terrible trade for the GOP. Even if Trump becomes the first ever Republican to win Starr, there's a real chance Biden wins Collin and maybe even Denton.

[CookieDamage]

If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.

Yeah, even though the blue area includes the RGV, that's more than canceled out by suburban swings. Flipping Zapata but losing Tarrant and Williamson is a terrible trade for the GOP. Even if Trump becomes the first ever Republican to win Starr, there's a real chance Biden wins Collin and maybe even Denton.

People very much overstate the importance of the RGV. It has 1.7 mil people (by a liberal definition), compared to 1.9 mil for Colin and Denton alone.  Throw in Tarrant, Williamson, Hays, and Fort Bend, that's 1.7 mil compared to 5.7 mil, all trending towards Dems.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I’m guessing that Virginia’s screwy independent city system probably reduces some of the (non-Atlas) blue there?

[CookieDamage]

I’m guessing that Virginia’s screwy independent city system probably reduces some of the (non-Atlas) blue there?

Yes, effectively. There were a lot of very red counties that just missed the 100k pop because of independent cities that were also rather red.

[Sol]

If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.

Yeah, even though the blue area includes the RGV, that's more than canceled out by suburban swings. Flipping Zapata but losing Tarrant and Williamson is a terrible trade for the GOP. Even if Trump becomes the first ever Republican to win Starr, there's a real chance Biden wins Collin and maybe even Denton.

People very much overstate the importance of the RGV. It has 1.7 mil people (by a liberal definition), compared to 1.9 mil for Colin and Denton alone.  Throw in Tarrant, Williamson, Hays, and Fort Bend, that's 1.7 mil compared to 5.7 mil, all trending towards Dems.

Plus the RGV still actually does vote Democratic.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.

Yeah, even though the blue area includes the RGV, that's more than canceled out by suburban swings. Flipping Zapata but losing Tarrant and Williamson is a terrible trade for the GOP. Even if Trump becomes the first ever Republican to win Starr, there's a real chance Biden wins Collin and maybe even Denton.

I think I read on here that the Dem gains in Bexar alone cancelled out the GOP gains in the RGV

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you took these counties out and left the remaining deep-red rural counties in, Texas would very narrowly vote blue by a 10,000 vote margin.

Yeah, even though the blue area includes the RGV, that's more than canceled out by suburban swings. Flipping Zapata but losing Tarrant and Williamson is a terrible trade for the GOP. Even if Trump becomes the first ever Republican to win Starr, there's a real chance Biden wins Collin and maybe even Denton.

People very much overstate the importance of the RGV. It has 1.7 mil people (by a liberal definition), compared to 1.9 mil for Colin and Denton alone.  Throw in Tarrant, Williamson, Hays, and Fort Bend, that's 1.7 mil compared to 5.7 mil, all trending towards Dems.

RGV looks huge on a map. That plays into this.

[Mr. Smith]

What about under 100,000 for Dems?

Surely it's not just ski country.

[Roll Roons]

What about under 100,000 for Dems?

Surely it's not just ski country.

A bunch of Black-majority counties in the South, a handful of Hispanic-majority ones on or near the border, some in New England and on the West Coast, some that are home to reservations, and probably at least a couple college town counties.

[NorCalifornio]

The first map is missing Lubbock. Also Taylor County (Abilene) and Gregg County (Longview).

[CookieDamage]

The first map is missing Lubbock. Also Taylor County (Abilene) and Gregg County (Longview).

Good catch!

[NorCalifornio]

In the process of making my own map, I noticed a few more that are missing from the first one:

-Calhoun County, AL
-Limestone County, AL
-Hanover County, VA
-Cecil County, MD
-Butler County, PA
-Lebanon County, PA

[NorCalifornio]

What about under 100,000 for Dems?

Surely it's not just ski country.

Here's what I got:



Closeup of Virginia:



Honestly not as many as I expected. Unsurprisingly, most fall into the categories Roll Roons came up with. The independent cities of Virginia are well represented, which makes sense. Also difficult to see are Broomfield County, CO; Bristol County, RI; Newport County, RI; and San Juan County, WA.

Atlas doesn't have county-equivalent data for Alaska, but I'm sure some Native-majority census areas would make the cut.

EDIT: Can anybody see the images? Since I can't, here's the bare links, they seem to work:
Whole country: https://imgur.com/a/xqKAqf1
Virginia closeup: https://imgur.com/a/FL6Y7MC