When will the next newly elected POTUS enter office without a trifecta?

[Sir Mohamed]

Each newly elected POTUS after HW Bush in 1989 entered the WH with a governing trifecta, even though W Bush and Biden just had narrow majorities in congress upon taking office. When do you believe we'll see the next prez winning a 1st term with no majority in one or both congressional chambers? And how will that affect the early stage of a presidency?

I have a feeling it's very likely the combination will be D-POTUS and GOP senate.

[MABA 2020]

Possibly if a Democrat is elected in 2028

[President Johnson]

Possibly if a Democrat is elected in 2028

That was my first thought as well.

It actually would already have happened in 2020 if not for special elections. Neither McCain's nor Isakson's seat were up until 2022. So if they didn't die or resign for health reasons, Democrats wouldn't have been able to flip them, ergo Biden would have came in with a Democratic House and a 52 seat Republican majority in the senate.

A president coming in without a trifecta will probably lead to him/her having to run for reelection without any significant legislative accomplishments since there's much less bipartisanship as there was during the Nixon, Reagan or Bush sen. years. Depending on senate composition, the new president might even be forced to spend a ton of political capital early on just to get his cabinet confirmed, which usually should be a routine procedure.

[dw93]

It's plausible (though very unlikely at this point) that a Republican that narrowly wins in 2024 could do so with a narrow Democratic House Majority. Otherwise, any Democrat winning the party a third consecutive term in 2028 is most certainly gonna have, at minimum, Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress.

[Meatball Slayer]

The next Democratic president likely doesn’t control the Senate.