Would the Sanders vs. Trump coalitions have resembled the Obama vs. Romney coalitions?

[WalterWhite]

The coalitions shifted dramatically in 2016 largely because of Trump's populism and protectionism. Sanders, unlike Clinton, was also a populist and a protectionist. Would there have been less of a shift in coalitions if Sanders were the Democratic nominee in 2016 instead of Clinton?

Would the map have more closely resembled the Obama vs. Romney map if Sanders were the nominee?

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Sanders would win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin due to maintaining most of the white working class within the Democratic coalition, but Iowa and Ohio would still flip, as Trump's right-wing populism would have more appeal in those states. Dubuque would continue its streak of voting Democratic.

Michael Bloomberg would run a third-party campaign with Evan McMullin or Jim Webb as his running mate, trying to attract moderates and cause an EC deadlock. However, he would not win any states or counties, and win 6% of the vote at best. His best performances would be in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York.

Trump possibly does better in the affluent suburbs due to his support for lower taxes and opposition to universal healthcare.

[WalterWhite]

Sanders would win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin due to maintaining most of the white working class within the Democratic coalition, but Iowa and Ohio would still flip, as Trump's right-wing populism would have more appeal in those states. Dubuque would continue its streak of voting Democratic.

Michael Bloomberg would run a third-party campaign with Evan McMullin or Jim Webb as his running mate, trying to attract moderates and cause an EC deadlock. However, he would not win any states or counties, and win 6% of the vote at best. His best performances would be in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York.

Trump possibly does better in the affluent suburbs due to his support for lower taxes and opposition to universal healthcare.

I could see Ohio flipping, but I think Iowa would have remained Democratic. Before 2016, Iowa has voted more in line with Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania than it did with Ohio. I think Sanders would have held onto the Driftless Area of Iowa, keeping the state in the Democratic column.

[Sumner 1868]

No.

Sanders v. Cruz, on the other hand, most certainly would have.