NH-Emerson: Ayotte/Craig lead primary, Ayotte +9/+13

[wbrocks67]

GOP Primary:
Ayotte 45%
Morse 9%
Edelbut 4%
Burns 3%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 35%

DEM Primary:
Craig 30%
Warmington 15%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 52%

GE:
Ayotte (R) 46%
Craig (D) 37%
Undecided 17%

Ayotte (R) 47%
Warmingotn (D) 34%
Undecided 19%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-desantis-fades-trump-maintains-lead-in-primary/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She was gonna have a lead but it's gonna be cut

[Dave Hedgehog]

Probably not as easy a D flip as some might like to think, even if Biden wins there comfortably again. Now Vermont if Scott steps down, that's a different story.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I'm starting off rating this race as Lean R with Ayotte as candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Ayotte leads with Independents, 45-29, though a lot of undecided. Craig only gets 68% of 2020 Biden voters, while Ayotte gets 82% of Trump voters.

Would imagine things will change considerably when things get into high gear/voters come home.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R for now, could move to Likely if we get a lot of polls like this. I don't buy that this is going to be an easy flip for Democrats.

[JMT]

I think it’s hard to deny that Ayotte is the frontrunner for both the Republican primary and the general election at this stage. But, this may well be attributed to name recognition. It’s still early.

I fully expect Ayotte will win the primary, and I think the general election will be close (I don’t buy the narrative that Dems are heavy favorites here). Ayotte certainly has a good chance in the general election, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Craig or Warmington win, either. I think this race will end up being a nail biter in the end.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think anyone denies that Ayotte could get 46-47% in a GE, but it’s not hard to see why it’s all downhill for her from here on.

Still a Lean D race for now (presidential race is Safe D). State is decisively blue, she’s not campaigning as the type of Republican who can win in a blue state, and she never lived up to the hype in 2016 either. This is also a place where polling tends to understate D strength more often than not.

[soundchaser]

This is also a place where polling tends to understate D strength more often than not.

I remember vividly the polls with Bolduc leading last cycle.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I don’t think anyone denies that Ayotte could get 46-47% in a GE, but it’s not hard to see why it’s all downhill for her from here on.

Still a Lean D race for now (presidential race is Safe D). State is decisively blue, she’s not campaigning as the type of Republican who can win in a blue state, and she never lived up to the hype in 2016 either. This is also a place where polling tends to understate D strength more often than not.

If we went by 2016, the gap between Trump and Ayotte closed because Trump was the one with a large surge in NH. The polling numbers right now are actually very similar to 2016 (with Ayotte leading by slightly more than she did at this point and Trump behind by slightly less than he was).

This is a state where undecideds often break against the incumbent. Both results will likely be somewhere in the middle between D +7 and R +9 - both Ayotte and Biden will lose ground.

[Podgy the Bear]

Ayotte is going to have a lot of trouble holding that lead in the Republican primary race.  She didn't endorse Trump in 2016 and she will have to answer to a lot of MAGA types out there.  

If she can make it through to the general, she will be a formidable candidate.  Has had a good post-senatorial record.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ayotte is going to have a lot of trouble holding that lead in the Republican primary race.  She didn't endorse Trump in 2016 and she will have to answer to a lot of MAGA types out there.  

If she can make it through to the general, she will be a formidable candidate.  Has had a good post-senatorial record.

This is a governors race, not a federal. It's much easier to keep this race separate from Trump.

Also, NH could be like Virginia. In Virginia, the convention learned a lesson from 2018 and knew they needed a moderate in 2021.

[wbrocks67]

Ayotte is going to have a lot of trouble holding that lead in the Republican primary race.  She didn't endorse Trump in 2016 and she will have to answer to a lot of MAGA types out there.  

If she can make it through to the general, she will be a formidable candidate.  Has had a good post-senatorial record.

This is a governors race, not a federal. It's much easier to keep this race separate from Trump.

Also, NH could be like Virginia. In Virginia, the convention learned a lesson from 2018 and knew they needed a moderate in 2021.

Ayotte is not a moderate.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ayotte is going to have a lot of trouble holding that lead in the Republican primary race.  She didn't endorse Trump in 2016 and she will have to answer to a lot of MAGA types out there.  

If she can make it through to the general, she will be a formidable candidate.  Has had a good post-senatorial record.

This is a governors race, not a federal. It's much easier to keep this race separate from Trump.

Also, NH could be like Virginia. In Virginia, the convention learned a lesson from 2018 and knew they needed a moderate in 2021.

Ayotte is not a moderate.

She is probably perceived that way, especially due to distance from Trump. Also she had a very bipartisan voting record in the Senate.

[free my dawg]

Ayotte is going to have a lot of trouble holding that lead in the Republican primary race.  She didn't endorse Trump in 2016 and she will have to answer to a lot of MAGA types out there.  

If she can make it through to the general, she will be a formidable candidate.  Has had a good post-senatorial record.

This is a governors race, not a federal. It's much easier to keep this race separate from Trump.

Also, NH could be like Virginia. In Virginia, the convention learned a lesson from 2018 and knew they needed a moderate in 2021.

Ayotte is not a moderate.

She is probably perceived that way, especially due to distance from Trump. Also she had a very bipartisan voting record in the Senate.

lol

[free my dawg]

Like maybe I'm overcorrecting a bit to Ayotte being bad politically but Christ

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's early, it's a long time til Eday

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Press X to doubt

[Lief 🗽]

Brace yourselves folks, we are about to be subject to nearly 15 months of non-stop propaganda from the media/polling industrial complex trying to convince us that Kelly Ayotte is some electoral titan. She is not.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not exactly what I was hoping to see because Ayotte sucks, but it is still very early and she definitely has the name recognition advantage more than anything. I'll go with tossup for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's the first poll it's not the Final poll Craig has a chance, Emerson said Biden was tied in MI and Biden is slightly ahead in MI

[BigZuck08]

Eh, still Lean D. Ayotte just has a lot more name recognition in that state.

Now if there are more polls later on in campaign season that shows Ayotte leading, I will change my rating. But for now, Lean D.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Eh, still Lean D. Ayotte just has a lot more name recognition in that state.

Now if there are more polls later on in campaign season that shows Ayotte leading, I will change my rating. But for now, Lean D.

Ayotte is already at 46, more than Trump got in 2020. Also, Ayotte's opponents are likely weak candidates.

[Xing]

Toss-Up for now. I think some people favorably remember Ayotte right now, but her numbers are likely to fall as she’s put under more scrutiny.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Toss-Up for now. I think some people favorably remember Ayotte right now, but her numbers are likely to fall as she’s put under more scrutiny.

Ayotte had one of the most bipartisan voting records in the Senate, and has sufficient distance from Trump. Also, NH is considerably redder at the state level than at the federal level.