Swann V. Altmire + PA U.S House predictions

[Keystone Phil]

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

He's not coming back, moose, and personally, I wouldn't want him.

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No, they can keep him.

Of course you wouldnt want him. But I would...as would plenty of Bucks County-ers

Well, it's time to accept that he's not coming back. If Fitz doesn't run, maybe Tomlinson will jump in. He was just re-elected to the State Senate so he wouldn't have to worry about losing his seat if he lost the Congressional bid.

[bullmoose88]

Tomlinson could chew into the slightly democratic areas of lower bucks (Areas like Bristol were a loss in the first place).

Plus Tomlinson's district starts to stretch north into central bucks...where Fitz underperformed in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

Tomlinson could chew into the slightly democratic areas of lower bucks (Areas like Bristol were a loss in the first place).

Plus Tomlinson's district starts to stretch north into central bucks...where Fitz underperformed in 2006.

So he'd be perfect if Fitz didn't run but I think he'd need a lot of convincing in order to get in.

[bullmoose88]

Tomlinson could chew into the slightly democratic areas of lower bucks (Areas like Bristol were a loss in the first place).

Plus Tomlinson's district starts to stretch north into central bucks...where Fitz underperformed in 2006.

So he'd be perfect if Fitz didn't run but I think he'd need a lot of convincing in order to get in.

Well, I'm not sure...some people are gonna need a reason to vote Murphy out...he hasn't given one...yet

Murphy's got a young look to him...some might see him as a rising star...Tomlinson has a much older look...that might be difficult to beat.

But there isn't really anyone young who could run.

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=1

This site contains the voter reg info for all 435 CD's.  Just click on the state and CD you want, scroll down the page and you'll find the info you seek.

[Keystone Phil]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

Can I see the article?  That amount does not seem anywhere near correct.  Even Jeb Bradley, who wants to win back NH-01, has only raised $7,000 so far.

[Keystone Phil]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

Can I see the article?  That amount does not seem anywhere near correct.  Even Jeb Bradley, who wants to win back NH-01, has only raised $7,000 so far.

My mistake! I misread the article. It said that at this point last year that's how much Fitz had on hand (which is double what Murphy has now). Tell me if you'd still like to see the article.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

Can I see the article?  That amount does not seem anywhere near correct.  Even Jeb Bradley, who wants to win back NH-01, has only raised $7,000 so far.

My mistake! I misread the article. It said that at this point last year that's how much Fitz had on hand (which is double what Murphy has now). Tell me if you'd still like to see the article.

Id still enjoy looking at it.

[Keystone Phil]

Id still enjoy looking at it.

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/111-04172007-1331706.html

[Keystone Phil]

Hart told Roll Call that Swann possibly being in the race won't stop her from running. Many of us have known that Hart would be back but I think this is proof that she's in to anyone foolish enough to dispute a comeback.

[Mr.Phips]

Hart told Roll Call that Swann possibly being in the race won't stop her from running. Many of us have known that Hart would be back but I think this is proof that she's in to anyone foolish enough to dispute a comeback.

She is still thinking about.  It is assumed that she is looking at the national landscape, which does not look at all good for Republicans.

[12th Doctor]

I say this, with all partisan politics aside, Altmire is a bafoon and an idiot... I know those words mean pretty much the same thing, but I figured I would just hammer in the point... who only one that district because of a pro-Democratic climate and the fact that Hart didn't believe she was vulnerable until the last month of the race (according to the polls, she really wasn't, but she should have been more careful regardless).  Almost any big name GOPer who runs for that seat wins it back, IMO.  If Swann ran, he would win, albeit not by an huge margin, but he would still win.  Hart would probably take it back with 8% to spare, at least.

[Mr.Phips]

I say this, with all partisan politics aside, Altmire is a bafoon and an idiot... I know those words mean pretty much the same thing, but I figured I would just hammer in the point... who only one that district because of a pro-Democratic climate and the fact that Hart didn't believe she was vulnerable until the last month of the race (according to the polls, she really wasn't, but she should have been more careful regardless).  Almost any big name GOPer who runs for that seat wins it back, IMO.  If Swann ran, he would win, albeit not by an huge margin, but he would still win.  Hart would probably take it back with 8% to spare, at least.

I would not be so sure.  This is historically a very Democratic district with a huge 55%-32% Dem registration advantage.  Even George W. Bush, when Republicans turned out every possible voter and then some, only managed to get 53% in 2004. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is historically a very Democratic district

Yes, but the boundaries were gerrymandered in 2002 to make Hart safer; it now includes pretty much all of the northern third of Allegheny county (very white collar, very Republican) while losing some working class towns from Westmoreland county, with the effect of shifting the district from being a working class and fundamentally Democratic district (albeit one with affluent and Republican pockets here and there) to a socially polarised marginal.

[Mr.Phips]

This is historically a very Democratic district

Yes, but the boundaries were gerrymandered in 2002 to make Hart safer; it now includes pretty much all of the northern third of Allegheny county (very white collar, very Republican) while losing some working class towns from Westmoreland county, with the effect of shifting the district from being a working class and fundamentally Democratic district (albeit one with affluent and Republican pockets here and there) to a socially polarised marginal.

The 2002 gerrymander did very little to change the party percentages is the district.  The only Republican portion of the district is the Allegheny county portion.  All Altmire has to do is win all of the counties and stay above 38% in Allegheny and he wins with about 55% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

She is still thinking about.  It is assumed that she is looking at the national landscape, which does not look at all good for Republicans.

Mr. Phips, it is pretty clear that she is running. She wouldn't make these statements otherwise. Plus, I have pretty good sources which, I can assure you, are much better than your's. I can only say so much though and hopefully you will respect - not mock - me for that.

[Mr.Phips]

She is still thinking about.  It is assumed that she is looking at the national landscape, which does not look at all good for Republicans.

Mr. Phips, it is pretty clear that she is running. She wouldn't make these statements otherwise. Plus, I have pretty good sources which, I can assure you, are much better than your's. I can only say so much though and hopefully you will respect - not mock - me for that.

Well if she is running, she better have raised at least $150,000 by now which is half of what Altmire raised in the first quarter.

[Mr.Phips]

Carney has not distanced himself from Pelosi and Co. in any way so far. There are editorials every other day in every Northeast PA paper about Carney being a liberal, voting to raise taxes, opposing the war, voting for stem cell research, etc. This time next year, the mood will be apparent, but it's still too early to judge.

I would bet you a million dollars that eight out of every ten of those editorials is an NRCC plant.