Swann V. Altmire + PA U.S House predictions

[MarkWarner08]

Looks like Lynn Swann might run against Altmire. Swann is a charismatic, attractive minority candidate who is still popular  in this part of Pennsylvania with those who remember him from his playing days with the Steelers.  Does Swann's interest signify that Melissa Hart is bowing out of a rematch?

Is Altmire the right type (culturally conservative, fiscally moderate) Democrat to hold this district? I think Rep. Altmire is a lot like Ron Klink, who was a perfect fit for this working class district. I wouldn't be surprised if Altmire's political career mimicked that of Jim Gerlach, a tempting target that remains elusive and dashes his opponents hearts every two years.

For the record, here are my current views of the PA House Races that could be competitive:

PA-04: Leans Democratic

PA-06: Slightly Leans GOP. I hope Republicans don't view Mr. 51% as having an impregnable advantage. For all the GOPers who think he's invincible, they should take note of Anne Northup. For all the Democrats who think he'll be knocked off in '08, look no further than another Republican woman in a swing district, Heather Wilson.

PA-07: Likely Democratic. Curt Weldon easily held this seat for 20 years until he was unceremoniously dumped by political neophyte Joe Sestak. Admiral Sestak's impressive showing is evidence of his likely staying power. He'll also benefit from the collapse of the GOP machine in Delaware County which parallels the GOP's downfall in Nassau County, NY.

PA-08: Slightly Leans Democratic. This and IA-02 were the only races I was actually disappointed the Democrat won. Rep. Patrick Murphy has deftly purveyed his military experience into a high-profile role as the de facto spokesman fro the House Democrats on Iraq. I actually think the Democratic members of the "Near Miss Club" such as Linda Stender, Larry Kissell, Dan Maffei, Darcy Burner, Tessa Hafen, Mary Jo Kilroy and more have a better chance of winning than the GOP incumbents like Jim Ryun and Mike Fitzpatrick who are seeking revenge. If Barack Obama is the Democratic standbearer and the war in Iraq is still the paramount issues, expect Murphy to win.

PA-10: Pure Toss-Up.  Only in the perverse world of computer generated gerrymandered congressional districts can disgraced Rep. Don Sherwood  win 47% in the terrific Democratic year of 2006 despite allegations that committed the reprehensible and inexplicable act of choking his mistress. Jake has pointed out that this district has a 50% solid GOP registration edge. If Chris Carney can continue to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi and the ultra-liberal Democratic House leadership, he'll have a chance of holding this conservative and fiercely partisan district.  Jason Altmire must follow the path of Ron Klink, Jim Gerlach needs to eat lunch with the likes of Heather Wilson and Robin Hayes and Chris Carney must channel the political magic of Tim Holden.

PA-15: Leans GOP. Don't listen to the DCCC --  Charlie Dent is not vulnerable. Charlie Dent is a member of the dying breed of socially moderate Republican in the mold of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle. When they retire, like their fellow part outcasts the Dixiecrats, they will be replaced by someone from the other party. Unless the Democrats nab a strong recruit and the Republican malaise continues, expect Dent to continue his promising career though 2008.

PA-18: Likely GOP The Rep. Tim Murphy scandal is simply too complicated for average voters to grasp. I'm convinced the only scandals voters understand are sex scandals (Clinton and Foley) or corruption (DeLay and Ney). Murphy's district is solildy red and will insulate him from any polititical fallout.

[socaldem]

PA-18 is about as GOP-leaning as PA-04 and I think Melissa Hart was a superior incumbent.  With a decent opponent, Murphy would have been history.  I think the race only leans his way.

[Mr.Phips]

All incumbents likely have the edge with the exception of Chris Carney in PA-10.  He has a chance as the incumbent, but he will need to work very hard to be reelected.

[Mr.Phips]

PA-18 is about as GOP-leaning as PA-04 and I think Melissa Hart was a superior incumbent.  With a decent opponent, Murphy would have been history.  I think the race only leans his way.

They both have huge Dem registration advantages.  I good challenger could give Murphy a real race.

[Jake]

Carney has not distanced himself from Pelosi and Co. in any way so far. There are editorials every other day in every Northeast PA paper about Carney being a liberal, voting to raise taxes, opposing the war, voting for stem cell research, etc. This time next year, the mood will be apparent, but it's still too early to judge.

[Keystone Phil]

Swann loses. It really doesn't matter anyway since Hart will run and win the primary. Sorry, Lynn. I supported you but politics just isn't your thing.

PA 6 - Gerlach hangs on again.

PA 7 - The GOP's only shot at a pickup here is with U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan and it will still be an uphill fight. Otherwise, Sestak has it for as long as he wants (even though he's been a bit controversial lately).

PA 8 - This race is funny. Just when I started to think that Fitz might be rethinking a run, a prominent Dem activist who I am friendly with expressed her certainty that Fitz will take the seat back because all the GOP needs is a slightly better GOTV effort in 2008. If the election was held now, Murphy wins fairly easily. He gets props for voting against the budget but let's wait to see if he gets the same positive press, etc. in 2008. If Fitz doesn't run, though, don't expect the national GOP to pay much attention here.

PA 10 - Carney is going. I was very worried that Carney would become a Holden but he is showing that he has no intention of doing so. This seat is definetley leaning GOP.

PA 15 - Dent himself is very personally popular up there but with the right candidate, he can have a very tough time and might be beat. If popular State Senator Lisa Boscola runs, this seat will be a major target for the Dems. I am not a Dent fan at all but if Boscola (who is frequently targeted by the state GOP to switch parties) is the nominee, I am all for Dent. Why would I be so strongly against someone seen as a DINO? Well, I won't get into it because it is pretty damn digusting. If she's their nominee, everyone will know about it though. Let's just say that someone people (eh...like BRTD) would love her for this...

PA 18 - Murphy can be a real problem. The investigation is obviously going to weigh him down in 2008. The GOP would be smart to tell him that this is his last term. We can't afford to let him slide and lose like Sherwood when we could have kept the seat with the right candidate. The district isn't solidly Republican but the GOP has the advantage here.

[True Democrat]

Ah, PA-18.  I was actually involved in what Murphy was being investigated for.  Murphy is basically being investigated for using his congressional office for campaigning.  I was an intern for his office last summer.  We did legislative house calls, where we basically went to people's houses and asked if they had any concerns.  But, according to people in the office, we weren't getting enough responses.  So instead, we told to ask the constituents' opinions of Murphy.  At times, we (the other interns and I) were even told to ask if they were voting for Murphy.

However, unless he is charged, I doubt anything will come of this scandal.  I see no credible Democratic opponent who could beat him in 2008.  Like another poster said, this scandal is simply too complicated for the average voter.  I highly doubt the average voter even knows the difference between a campaign office and a congressional office.

[bullmoose88]

PA 8 - This race is funny. Just when I started to think that Fitz might be rethinking a run, a prominent Dem activist who I am friendly with expressed her certainty that Fitz will take the seat back because all the GOP needs is a slightly better GOTV effort in 2008. If the election was held now, Murphy wins fairly easily. He gets props for voting against the budget but let's wait to see if he gets the same positive press, etc. in 2008. If Fitz doesn't run, though, don't expect the national GOP to pay much attention here.

I concur. I wonder if Fitz doesn't run (its possible, he might have burned himself out from 05-07), i wonder if the GOP pleads with Greenwood, who is comfortable in the private sector. They'd have to, I don't see anyone who can give Pat a run for his money willing to challenge him.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 8 - This race is funny. Just when I started to think that Fitz might be rethinking a run, a prominent Dem activist who I am friendly with expressed her certainty that Fitz will take the seat back because all the GOP needs is a slightly better GOTV effort in 2008. If the election was held now, Murphy wins fairly easily. He gets props for voting against the budget but let's wait to see if he gets the same positive press, etc. in 2008. If Fitz doesn't run, though, don't expect the national GOP to pay much attention here.

I concur. I wonder if Fitz doesn't run (its possible, he might have burned himself out from 05-07), i wonder if the GOP pleads with Greenwood, who is comfortable in the private sector. They'd have to, I don't see anyone who can give Pat a run for his money willing to challenge him.

There is no way at all that Greenwood leaves his amazing private sector job. After Fitz, State Representative Gene DiGirolamo is our strongest candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case anyone be interested, PA-4 is a very demographically polarised district.

[Keystone Phil]

In case anyone be interested, PA-4 is a very demographically polarised district.

I love the 4th. It seems like it has everything and is probably the most accurate representation of PA as a whole.

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

[Keystone Phil]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

And if I may ask, how do you find this information?

[MarkWarner08]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=616

And if I may ask, how do you find this information?

[Keystone Phil]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=616

And if I may ask, how do you find this information?

Ah, a pretty obvious place to look! Thanks!

[nclib]

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=616

Does that site (or any other site) have voter registration for the other PA districts?

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=616

Does that site (or any other site) have voter registration for the other PA districts?

That site doesn't even have the information for every district. There has to be another source that Al has but he probably doesn't want to advertize them...

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like Lynn Swann might run against Altmire. Swann is a charismatic, attractive minority candidate who is still popular  in this part of Pennsylvania with those who remember him from his playing days with the Steelers.  Does Swann's interest signify that Melissa Hart is bowing out of a rematch?

Is Altmire the right type (culturally conservative, fiscally moderate) Democrat to hold this district? I think Rep. Altmire is a lot like Ron Klink, who was a perfect fit for this working class district. I wouldn't be surprised if Altmire's political career mimicked that of Jim Gerlach, a tempting target that remains elusive and dashes his opponents hearts every two years.

For the record, here are my current views of the PA House Races that could be competitive:

PA-04: Leans Democratic

PA-06: Slightly Leans GOP. I hope Republicans don't view Mr. 51% as having an impregnable advantage. For all the GOPers who think he's invincible, they should take note of Anne Northup. For all the Democrats who think he'll be knocked off in '08, look no further than another Republican woman in a swing district, Heather Wilson.

PA-07: Likely Democratic. Curt Weldon easily held this seat for 20 years until he was unceremoniously dumped by political neophyte Joe Sestak. Admiral Sestak's impressive showing is evidence of his likely staying power. He'll also benefit from the collapse of the GOP machine in Delaware County which parallels the GOP's downfall in Nassau County, NY.

PA-08: Slightly Leans Democratic. This and IA-02 were the only races I was actually disappointed the Democrat won. Rep. Patrick Murphy has deftly purveyed his military experience into a high-profile role as the de facto spokesman fro the House Democrats on Iraq. I actually think the Democratic members of the "Near Miss Club" such as Linda Stender, Larry Kissell, Dan Maffei, Darcy Burner, Tessa Hafen, Mary Jo Kilroy and more have a better chance of winning than the GOP incumbents like Jim Ryun and Mike Fitzpatrick who are seeking revenge. If Barack Obama is the Democratic standbearer and the war in Iraq is still the paramount issues, expect Murphy to win.

PA-10: Pure Toss-Up.  Only in the perverse world of computer generated gerrymandered congressional districts can disgraced Rep. Don Sherwood  win 47% in the terrific Democratic year of 2006 despite allegations that committed the reprehensible and inexplicable act of choking his mistress. Jake has pointed out that this district has a 50% solid GOP registration edge. If Chris Carney can continue to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi and the ultra-liberal Democratic House leadership, he'll have a chance of holding this conservative and fiercely partisan district.  Jason Altmire must follow the path of Ron Klink, Jim Gerlach needs to eat lunch with the likes of Heather Wilson and Robin Hayes and Chris Carney must channel the political magic of Tim Holden.

PA-15: Leans GOP. Don't listen to the DCCC --  Charlie Dent is not vulnerable. Charlie Dent is a member of the dying breed of socially moderate Republican in the mold of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle. When they retire, like their fellow part outcasts the Dixiecrats, they will be replaced by someone from the other party. Unless the Democrats nab a strong recruit and the Republican malaise continues, expect Dent to continue his promising career though 2008.

PA-18: Likely GOP The Rep. Tim Murphy scandal is simply too complicated for average voters to grasp. I'm convinced the only scandals voters understand are sex scandals (Clinton and Foley) or corruption (DeLay and Ney). Murphy's district is solildy red and will insulate him from any polititical fallout.

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

[Keystone Phil]

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

I agree at this point but things can change. Fitz did an excellent job pointing out his independence last time around. He wasn't "always there when Bush needed him."

[bullmoose88]

Looks like Lynn Swann might run against Altmire. Swann is a charismatic, attractive minority candidate who is still popular  in this part of Pennsylvania with those who remember him from his playing days with the Steelers.  Does Swann's interest signify that Melissa Hart is bowing out of a rematch?

Is Altmire the right type (culturally conservative, fiscally moderate) Democrat to hold this district? I think Rep. Altmire is a lot like Ron Klink, who was a perfect fit for this working class district. I wouldn't be surprised if Altmire's political career mimicked that of Jim Gerlach, a tempting target that remains elusive and dashes his opponents hearts every two years.

For the record, here are my current views of the PA House Races that could be competitive:

PA-04: Leans Democratic

PA-06: Slightly Leans GOP. I hope Republicans don't view Mr. 51% as having an impregnable advantage. For all the GOPers who think he's invincible, they should take note of Anne Northup. For all the Democrats who think he'll be knocked off in '08, look no further than another Republican woman in a swing district, Heather Wilson.

PA-07: Likely Democratic. Curt Weldon easily held this seat for 20 years until he was unceremoniously dumped by political neophyte Joe Sestak. Admiral Sestak's impressive showing is evidence of his likely staying power. He'll also benefit from the collapse of the GOP machine in Delaware County which parallels the GOP's downfall in Nassau County, NY.

PA-08: Slightly Leans Democratic. This and IA-02 were the only races I was actually disappointed the Democrat won. Rep. Patrick Murphy has deftly purveyed his military experience into a high-profile role as the de facto spokesman fro the House Democrats on Iraq. I actually think the Democratic members of the "Near Miss Club" such as Linda Stender, Larry Kissell, Dan Maffei, Darcy Burner, Tessa Hafen, Mary Jo Kilroy and more have a better chance of winning than the GOP incumbents like Jim Ryun and Mike Fitzpatrick who are seeking revenge. If Barack Obama is the Democratic standbearer and the war in Iraq is still the paramount issues, expect Murphy to win.

PA-10: Pure Toss-Up.  Only in the perverse world of computer generated gerrymandered congressional districts can disgraced Rep. Don Sherwood  win 47% in the terrific Democratic year of 2006 despite allegations that committed the reprehensible and inexplicable act of choking his mistress. Jake has pointed out that this district has a 50% solid GOP registration edge. If Chris Carney can continue to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi and the ultra-liberal Democratic House leadership, he'll have a chance of holding this conservative and fiercely partisan district.  Jason Altmire must follow the path of Ron Klink, Jim Gerlach needs to eat lunch with the likes of Heather Wilson and Robin Hayes and Chris Carney must channel the political magic of Tim Holden.

PA-15: Leans GOP. Don't listen to the DCCC --  Charlie Dent is not vulnerable. Charlie Dent is a member of the dying breed of socially moderate Republican in the mold of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle. When they retire, like their fellow part outcasts the Dixiecrats, they will be replaced by someone from the other party. Unless the Democrats nab a strong recruit and the Republican malaise continues, expect Dent to continue his promising career though 2008.

PA-18: Likely GOP The Rep. Tim Murphy scandal is simply too complicated for average voters to grasp. I'm convinced the only scandals voters understand are sex scandals (Clinton and Foley) or corruption (DeLay and Ney). Murphy's district is solildy red and will insulate him from any polititical fallout.

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

We'll see. I'm not 100% confident as you are that this will occur, but it seems to be the probable outcome. Murphy hasn't done anything that would cause his defeat. But much can change in a year and a half.

We're not even sure it Murphy's opponent is fitz yet.

[Keystone Phil]

We'll see. I'm not 100% confident as you are that this will occur, but it seems to be the probable outcome. Murphy hasn't done anything that would cause his defeat. But much can change in a year and a half.

We're not even sure it Murphy's opponent is fitz yet.

We won't beat him without Fitz. Fitz is probably still running though I have my doubts now. As of now, he's in and he'd easily win the primary.

[Mr.Phips]

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

I agree at this point but things can change. Fitz did an excellent job pointing out his independence last time around. He wasn't "always there when Bush needed him."

Maybe he wasn't, but you can be sure that Democrats and Murphy will use this arguement for all that its worth.

[bullmoose88]

We'll see. I'm not 100% confident as you are that this will occur, but it seems to be the probable outcome. Murphy hasn't done anything that would cause his defeat. But much can change in a year and a half.

We're not even sure it Murphy's opponent is fitz yet.

We won't beat him without Fitz. Fitz is probably still running though I have my doubts now. As of now, he's in and he'd easily win the primary.

I'm thinking that the GOP could still give murphy a run for his money even without Fitz.

Question is if any of those Rs would want to run...and we're gonna need to get some younger people to fill some bench spots.

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

My desire to unseat Murphy aside, he hasn't done a terribly bad job...I wish he was on our side though.

[Keystone Phil]

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

He's not coming back, moose, and personally, I wouldn't want him.

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No, they can keep him.

[bullmoose88]

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

He's not coming back, moose, and personally, I wouldn't want him.

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No, they can keep him.

Of course you wouldnt want him. But I would...as would plenty of Bucks County-ers