Which party will be more favorable to automation in the future?

[WalterWhite]

Currently, few people are discussing the issue of automation. However, it is no secret that automation will dramatically impact the future job market. Which political party will be more favorable to automation, and which political party would want to regulate automation more heavily? Currently, political alignments do not provide a clear answer.

From an economic lens, it appears as if the Republicans would be more favorable to automation. Democrats generally are supported by the working-class, who may feel that automation would be a threat to their future job security. Labor unions might be staunchly opposed to automation, who may view automation as a tool of business owners to avoid having to create jobs and pay workers.

From a social lens, however, it appears as if the Democrats would be more favorable to automation. Democrats are socially progressive, meaning they support cultural and technological progress. Automation falls under the category of technological progress, so social progressives might be more inclined to support this.

Will economic or social alignments prevail on the issue of automation?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Currently, few people are discussing the issue of automation. However, it is no secret that automation will dramatically impact the future job market. Which political party will be more favorable to automation, and which political party would want to regulate automation more heavily? Currently, political alignments do not provide a clear answer.

From an economic lens, it appears as if the Republicans would be more favorable to automation. Democrats generally are supported by the working-class, who may feel that automation would be a threat to their future job security. Labor unions might be staunchly opposed to automation, who may view automation as a tool of business owners to avoid having to create jobs and pay workers.

From a social lens, however, it appears as if the Democrats would be more favorable to automation. Democrats are socially progressive, meaning they support cultural and technological progress. Automation falls under the category of technological progress, so social progressives might be more inclined to support this.

Will economic or social alignments prevail on the issue of automation?

I believe social issues; this is doubly so since it seems like Democrats win most of the tech workers, who are probably the ones craziest about automation.

A recession that affects tech harder than other industries could flip the tech demographic though.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Lower and higher income voters actually voted quite closely in 2020, and for the past decade there has been a MASSIVE shift for these voters. There has not been a historical polling bias with these demographics (unlike age and race), and both campaigns have mentioned that this group is shifting right.
Regardless of economic interests, this is happening. As I pointed out, Trump has better approvals with poor voters than Biden despite Trump having much worse nationwide approvals in the same poll. This is a new phenomenon and has been repeated among all polls with wealth crosstabs I've seen.
2024 will see a massive swing right with poorer voters (and a smaller swing left with richer voters) and all indications are pointing this way. You can't just ignore the data.

People who make under $100K/year voted for Joe Biden by 13%. People who make over $100K/year voted for Donald Trump by 12%. That is a 25% gap amongst these two income demographics. Democrats will always have a fairly low ceiling amongst high-income voters unless their economic policy (e.g. tax increases for the wealthy) changes. The rich will always support the party that gives them the most tax breaks, which has been the Republican Party for decades.

The thing is, much if not most of that gap can be eliminated by controlling for race. Because, for the foreseeable future, black voters will always both be overwhelmingly majority-D and heavily skew under-100k average income relative to whites, Hispanic/Latino voters will probably always lean D relative to whites (even if Hispanics ever become majority-GOP), and Hispanic voters who make under 100k will probably always lean D relative to those who make over 100k, the gap between the over- and under-100k income voters will certainly not invert anytime soon. The real story is in whether the gap between the under- and over-100k income whites will ever invert anytime soon, or how close it ever gets to inverting.

Individual income =/= household income. It's probably mostly educational attainment + relative COL
https://twitter.com/notmusa2/status/1491185465286098948
https://twitter.com/ryanburge/status/1489614018239213574


Whichever party that favors voters with more formal education and who work in sectors that are less hurt by automation?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Democrats will be pro-automation and pro-UBI (like Yang)
Republicans will be anti-automation and neo-luddite (like Tucker)

That will be the main divide

[Skill and Chance]

Lower and higher income voters actually voted quite closely in 2020, and for the past decade there has been a MASSIVE shift for these voters. There has not been a historical polling bias with these demographics (unlike age and race), and both campaigns have mentioned that this group is shifting right.
Regardless of economic interests, this is happening. As I pointed out, Trump has better approvals with poor voters than Biden despite Trump having much worse nationwide approvals in the same poll. This is a new phenomenon and has been repeated among all polls with wealth crosstabs I've seen.
2024 will see a massive swing right with poorer voters (and a smaller swing left with richer voters) and all indications are pointing this way. You can't just ignore the data.

People who make under $100K/year voted for Joe Biden by 13%. People who make over $100K/year voted for Donald Trump by 12%. That is a 25% gap amongst these two income demographics. Democrats will always have a fairly low ceiling amongst high-income voters unless their economic policy (e.g. tax increases for the wealthy) changes. The rich will always support the party that gives them the most tax breaks, which has been the Republican Party for decades.

The thing is, much if not most of that gap can be eliminated by controlling for race. Because, for the foreseeable future, black voters will always both be overwhelmingly majority-D and heavily skew under-100k average income relative to whites, Hispanic/Latino voters will probably always lean D relative to whites (even if Hispanics ever become majority-GOP), and Hispanic voters who make under 100k will probably always lean D relative to those who make over 100k, the gap between the over- and under-100k income voters will certainly not invert anytime soon. The real story is in whether the gap between the under- and over-100k income whites will ever invert anytime soon, or how close it ever gets to inverting.

Individual income =/= household income. It's probably mostly educational attainment + relative COL
https://twitter.com/notmusa2/status/1491185465286098948
https://twitter.com/ryanburge/status/1489614018239213574


Whichever party that favors voters with more formal education and who work in sectors that are less hurt by automation?

I would agree with you that this split is mostly explained by how rich vs. poor an individual making ~$100K or a family making ~$150K feels in that metro.  And then in places like NYC and coastal CA you even get individuals making $200K and families making $250K who don't feel conventionally rich at all and vote D.  In a small Southern city where they would be making more than the average cost of a home annually, they would almost surely be R.