2022 Midterm Elections if Trump had conceded and Roe vs. Wade had not been overturned

[WalterWhite]

In this hypothetical universe, Donald Trump concedes the 2020 Election, and Roe vs. Wade is not overturned; the Supreme Court judges hold their word that abortion is a settled issue. This would put the GOP in a much stronger position heading into the 2022 Midterm Elections than the one in our timeline; the Republican Party would not have to defend its unpopular position on abortion and its electorally toxic (especially for gubernatorial races) election denialism. Tudor Dixon's vehemently pro-life stances would be irrelevant, for Roe vs. Wade would still override any state laws. Overall, the Republican does better across the country, but especially in the heavily pro-choice North.

RESULTS:

House NPV: Republican+8.9%

New House composition: 261 Republican seats and 174 Democratic seats

New Senate composition: 55 Republican seats and 45 Democratic seats

New gubernatorial composition: 35 Republican seats and 15 Democratic seats

House delegation map (Blue = Republican control; Red = Democratic control; Green = split control):

House popular vote by state:

Senate results:



Gubernatorial results:

[BigZuck08]

Imo:

Senate:



Governor:



House:

Somewhere around 232 Republicans to 203 Democrats

The overturn of Roe v Wade and Trump's refusal to concede the 2020 elections had massive impacts on the 2022 midterms that helped the Democrats do better in a lot of their races.

In the Senate, Oz would've held on to PA's Senate Seat for the Rs by a comfortable margin, while Walker, Masters, and Laxalt would win by comfortable margins, and Smiley in Washington would barely skate by. Bennet would narrowly hold on against O'Dea in Colorado by an extremely close margin.

For the governorships, Lake would've held on to AZ's governor seat by a comfortable margin, while Lombardo would win in NV by a greater margin than in our timeline. Meanwhile, Michels and Schmidt would win their races by comfortable margins, as Zeldin, Jensen, Dixon, Ronchetti, and Drazan would barely skate by in their races. Healey and Moore would still flip their seats to Democratic by comfortable margins, as those flips were inevitable regardless of the circumstances nationwide. Mastriano, LePage and Ganahl would make their races more competitive than our timeline but would still lose due to their controversies.

[WalterWhite]

For the governorships, Lake would've held on to AZ's governor seat by a comfortable margin, while Lombardo would win in NV by a greater margin than in our timeline. Meanwhile, Michels and Schmidt would win their races by comfortable margins, as Zeldin, Jensen, Dixon, Ronchetti, and Drazan would barely skate by in their races. Healey and Moore would still flip their seats to Democratic by comfortable margins, as those flips were inevitable regardless of the circumstances nationwide. Mastriano, LePage and Ganahl would make their races more competitive than our timeline but would still lose due to their controversies.

If Trump had conceded, there would not have been a riot on January 6, 2021, so Mastriano's public image would have not been tainted by that.

[BigZuck08]

For the governorships, Lake would've held on to AZ's governor seat by a comfortable margin, while Lombardo would win in NV by a greater margin than in our timeline. Meanwhile, Michels and Schmidt would win their races by comfortable margins, as Zeldin, Jensen, Dixon, Ronchetti, and Drazan would barely skate by in their races. Healey and Moore would still flip their seats to Democratic by comfortable margins, as those flips were inevitable regardless of the circumstances nationwide. Mastriano, LePage and Ganahl would make their races more competitive than our timeline but would still lose due to their controversies.

If Trump had conceded, there would not have been a riot on January 6, 2021, so Mastriano's public image would have not been tainted by that.

True, but that wasn't Doug's only controversy.

The following are quotes from his wikipedia page:

"In November 2022, The Daily Beast reported that Mastriano was an administrator for a Facebook group, which features a number of racist and antisemitic posts. The page features posts stating that Michelle Obama is transgender, George Soros is a Jewish puppet master who controls politicians and that immigrants are "scary brown people"."

"An August 2022 investigation by LNP found that Mastriano's security detail was made up of non-professional, armed guards including the former regional leader of the Oath Keepers, a far-right extremist militia group. Several other members of the security detail are members of LifeGate, an Elizabethtown-based evangelical church, whose leaders have spoken publicly about their goals to elect Christians to public office to advance biblical principles in government."

"In October 2022, Mastriano appeared at a campaign rally with conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec. Posobiec has repeatedly used white supremacist and antisemitic talking points, including the Fourteen Words, a reference to a white supremacist slogan"

"A July 2022 article in Salon, expanded upon by Media Matters for America in August, found that Mastriano has campaigned with and promoted Julie Green, an acknowledged prophet in the New Apostolic Reformation. Green, who says she has "a special relationship" with Mastriano and gave the opening prayer at one of Mastriano's campaign events, has promoted conspiracy theories including that Nancy Pelosi "loves to drink the little children's blood" and that Joe Biden is actually dead and being played by an actor. Green has prophesied that a number of politicians including Liz Cheney, Doug Ducey, Mitch McConnell, Jerry Nadler, Mitt Romney and Chuck Schumer will be executed for treason"

"In April, Mastriano spoke at and raised money for his campaign at a far-right Christian conference called "Patriots Arise for God and Country" in Gettysburg. The conference promoted conspiracy theories claiming that there is a global cabal of Democrats sex trafficking children, 9/11 was a false flag attack, vaccines amount to genocide therapy and Adolf Hitler faked his death. Jewish organizations criticized Mastriano following the rally due to the improper use of Jewish symbols as "campaign props" to open the event."

Shapiro would've used all of this and more in campaign ads, not to mention Mastriano ran a terrible campaign.

[2016]

Lake would not have been the AZ GOV Candidate for Republicans under this scenario. It almost certainly would have been State Treasurer Kimberly Yee and she would have trashed Hobbs in the GE.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The GOP wasnt gonna win CO Senate or MI/MN Gov

[NewYorkExpress]

House: Republicans 301, Democrats 134



Republicans also flip both Kentucky and Louisiana's Gubernatorial races this year.

Biden and Harris only remain in office because Republicans still do not have enough votes to remove them in the Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

Come on — the GOP brand is in the gutter nationally for reasons that go well beyond Trump's refusal to concede or the Dobbs decision. Yes, those obviously didn’t help, but as long as you still have the same deranged (even if slightly less deranged) lunatic leading the party/campaigning all over the country/being embraced by R candidates, the same inept clowns (McConnell and Scott) running the show, the same flawed challengers being nominated by GOP primary voters who don’t give a damn about electability, the same outdated turnout operations on the R side, and the same realignment of party coalitions (with reliable higher-propensity, college-ed voters shifting increasingly left and both white and non-white lower-propensity voters shifting right), you won’t magically get a GOP wave where the party wins states like NH, where it literally almost got blown out by double digits and did worse than Trump, let alone CO and WA.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Senate :



Since Sununu and Ayotte don’t run , I don’t think the GOP picks up NH. CO/WA were not happening regardless


Governor :



I think Baker runs for a third term here and the reason I have NY flipping but not NM is the surprise factor. Democrats would not put in the resources necessary to defend NY and on election night it would be the shock flip of the night .

Other than that this is basically how I see the GOP doing

[WalterWhite]

Senate



Since Sununu and Ayotte don’t run , I don’t think the GOP picks up NH. CO/WA were not happening regardless


Governor



I think Baker runs for a third term here and the reason I have NY flipping but not NM is the surprise factor. Democrats would not put in the resources necessary to defend NY and on election night it would be the shock flip of the night .

Other than that this is basically how I see the GOP doing

How does the Kansas governorship not flip in this scenario?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Senate



Since Sununu and Ayotte don’t run , I don’t think the GOP picks up NH. CO/WA were not happening regardless


Governor



I think Baker runs for a third term here and the reason I have NY flipping but not NM is the surprise factor. Democrats would not put in the resources necessary to defend NY and on election night it would be the shock flip of the night .

Other than that this is basically how I see the GOP doing

How does the Kansas governorship not flip in this scenario?

That was an error on my part

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I’m sorry and I don’t mean to be rude or anything, but this is really, really dumb — the GOP brand is in the gutter nationally for reasons that go well beyond Trump's refusal to concede or the Dobbs decision. Yes, those obviously didn’t help, but as long as you still have the same deranged (even if slightly less deranged) lunatic leading the party/campaigning all over the country/being embraced by R candidates, the same inept clowns (McConnell and Scott) running the show, the same flawed challengers being nominated by GOP primary voters who don’t give a damn about electability, the same outdated turnout operations on the R side, and the same realignment of party coalitions (with reliable higher-propensity, college-ed voters shifting increasingly left and both white and non-white lower-propensity voters shifting right), you won’t magically get a GOP wave where the party wins states like NH, where it literally almost got blown out by double digits and did worse than Trump, let alone CO and WA.

Yikes.

The GOP brand was in the gutter in 2014 (I believe their approvals then were even lower than the Democrats), yet they still did very well. What matter is that the Democrats would not be able to successfully switch the subject from the high inflation and poor economy at the time in this scenario.

[Pres Mike]

House: Republicans 301, Democrats 134



Republicans also flip both Kentucky and Louisiana's Gubernatorial races this year.

Biden and Harris only remain in office because Republicans still do not have enough votes to remove them in the Senate.

Even if the GOP rolled a six, they aren't going to win 40 governorships. Polis won 59% in Colorado.