How did DeSantis outperform Rubio?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Leading up to the 2022 midterms, it was conventional wisdom that DeSantis would outperform Rubio, which was what happened. I was actually surprised at the conventional wisdom at that time, because I always thought Rubio was far less controversial than DeSantis.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Federal politics are a bit more polarizing than state politics. Even if DeSantis was more polarizing than Rubio, there were more people who would consider crossing vote R at the state level than people willing to cross over at the federal level.

I also think DeSantis was really effective at making Floridian it's own sort of unique identity, and that he was standing up for Florida against the liberal elite in Cali and NY and what not, so a lot of Floridians who may have been more traditionally a-political felt included if that makes sense.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cause DeSantis was a very popular governor who did a fantastic job in controlling the narrative in FL. Its just not translated Federally.

[Aurelius2]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

I knew well before the 2022 elections happened that DeSantis was significantly more controversial than Rubio (ie his war on Disney started well before iirc and he already frequently used rhetoric such as "Florida is where woke goes to die"). Well before summer 2022, I thought Rubio would easily outperform DeSantis, and it took a lot of polling data/conventional wisdom forecasters to convince me otherwise.

[Del Tachi]

DeSantis is popular among very many Florida Democrats, so the national media has expectedly been putting in overtime work to take him down a few pegs. 

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

I knew well before the 2022 elections happened that DeSantis was significantly more controversial than Rubio (ie his war on Disney started well before iirc and he already frequently used rhetoric such as "Florida is where woke goes to die"). Well before summer 2022, I thought Rubio would easily outperform DeSantis, and it took a lot of polling data/conventional wisdom forecasters to convince me otherwise.

DeSantis also was pretty anti-covid NPI and had a few crossover appeal actions like raising teacher pay.

[coloradocowboi]

He also was running against Charlie Crist and I’m sure that helped.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It sounds kind of bizarre today but DeSantis actually started governing as one of the most moderate Republican governors at the beginning of his term. He repealed a lot of Rick Scott's downright evil executive orders as soon as he took office and was actually pretty teacher friendly and generally pro-environment. And his anti-Covid lockdown policies were broadly popular.

But then fell down the slippery slope from "anti-Covid vaccine mandate" to "anti-Covid vaccine" and went full culture warrior.

[Xing]

It was by a very small amount, and his actions (which were his and not Rubio’s) were popular specifically in Florida (which is not a swing state anymore.) He has never really been moderate, but he didn’t go out of his way to be an insufferable jerk quite as much as he has this year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For what it's worth, DeSantis had a more right-wing record in Congress than Rubio.

[President Johnson]

Demings was a better candidate than Crist and people are somewhat more willing to cross party lines for governor. The difference was relatively small though.

[Schiff for Senate]

Ftr I for one really thought Rubio would do quite a bit better than DeSantis, because of his 2016 performance and because, ironically, I thought DeSantis would be quite a polarizing figure.

Federal politics are a bit more polarizing than state politics. Even if DeSantis was more polarizing than Rubio, there were more people who would consider crossing vote R at the state level than people willing to cross over at the federal level.

Ultimately yes this is one thing. The other thing I've heard (here on the forum itself, I believe) is that Rubio didn't run a great or very serious campaign. That may also have led to his relative underperformance.

[TwinGeeks99]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

Didn't he already pass the Don't Say Gay law as well as the extreme gerrymander before his re-election?

[Aurelius2]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

Didn't he already pass the Don't Say Gay law as well as the extreme gerrymander before his re-election?

That law was about K-3, which most people agree with him on. Most voters don't care much about state legislative gerrymanders.

DeSantis used to be genius at baiting liberals into melting down over culture war stances he took where 60-70% agree with him. The problem is now he's doing this same strategy on issues where that same proportion disagree with him.

[WalterWhite]

Senate races are a LOT more influenced by polarization than gubernatorial races are.

[DaleCooper]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

Didn't he already pass the Don't Say Gay law as well as the extreme gerrymander before his re-election?

That law was about K-3, which most people agree with him on. Most voters don't care much about state legislative gerrymanders.

DeSantis used to be genius at baiting liberals into melting down over culture war stances he took where 60-70% agree with him. The problem is now he's doing this same strategy on issues where that same proportion disagree with him.

Republicans are basing their beliefs on a lot of fake or misinterpreted polls now. You can see it on this forum as well where even after multiple red and swing state anti-abortion failures they still think 80% of the public agrees with them. Antichrist Desantis seems to have fallen into a similar delusion.

[2016]

I think it was because of Hurricane IAN. DeSantis managed the immediate Aftermath of IAN very well and because of that many Voters turn to their Executive and voted accordingly.

[Meatball Slayer]

DeSantis’ margin-of-victory was a fluke caused by low turnout, and gubernatorial elections are always far less polarized than federal ones.

If the turnout was similar to 2020 PRES, Rubio would’ve won by a similar margin (R+16), while DeSantis wins by 11. Remember, Rubio won by 8 in 2016, while Trump won by a point.

[2016]

DeSantis’ margin-of-victory was a fluke caused by low turnout, and gubernatorial elections are always far less polarized than federal ones.

If the turnout was similar to 2020 PRES, Rubio would’ve won by a similar margin (R+16), while DeSantis wins by 11. Remember, Rubio won by 8 in 2016, while Trump won by a point.

This has already being debunked!

Florida Midterm Elections Turnout:
2010: 49 %
2014: 51 %
2018: 63 %
2022: 54 %

2018 was unusual high Turnout with 63 %. The 54 % Turnout is in line with 2010 & 2014.

[Meatball Slayer]

DeSantis’ margin-of-victory was a fluke caused by low turnout, and gubernatorial elections are always far less polarized than federal ones.

If the turnout was similar to 2020 PRES, Rubio would’ve won by a similar margin (R+16), while DeSantis wins by 11. Remember, Rubio won by 8 in 2016, while Trump won by a point.

This has already being debunked!

Florida Midterm Elections Turnout:
2010: 49 %
2014: 51 %
2018: 63 %
2022: 54 %

2018 was unusual high Turnout with 63 %. The 54 % Turnout is in line with 2010 & 2014.

Turnout which is still far below presidential turnout of >70% (and also, governors races are less polarized by default).

[Mr. Smith]

Crist was pathetic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Demings was a better candidate than Crist and federal races are generally more polarized than state races.

[2016]

DeSantis’ margin-of-victory was a fluke caused by low turnout, and gubernatorial elections are always far less polarized than federal ones.

If the turnout was similar to 2020 PRES, Rubio would’ve won by a similar margin (R+16), while DeSantis wins by 11. Remember, Rubio won by 8 in 2016, while Trump won by a point.

This has already being debunked!

Florida Midterm Elections Turnout:
2010: 49 %
2014: 51 %
2018: 63 %
2022: 54 %

2018 was unusual high Turnout with 63 %. The 54 % Turnout is in line with 2010 & 2014.

Turnout which is still far below presidential turnout of >70% (and also, governors races are less polarized by default).

Midterm Elections usually do not get Presidential Turnout. That's why it's called "Midterm Elections". Midterms always have lower Turnout. The FL Turnout 2022 is in line with the 2010 & 2014 Turnout, coupled how DeSantis handled Hurricane IAN + the Republicans having a 300,000 Voter Registration Edge in FL heading into that Election and you get the Result you got here.

Finally, unless Democrats can reverse the Voter Registrations they won't win any Statewide Race in the Sunshine State anytime soon. They would need a perfect wave to do it. Nikki Fried is such a Clown of a Party Chair it is laughable. FL Democrats have no Infrastructure in the State, they are getting outraised by the FL Republican Party by 7 to 1.

I've weekly conversations with FL GOP Chair Chris Ziegler and Vice Chair Evan Power. I am more immersed in FL Politics compared to some folks who actually live in the State.

[MARGINS6729]

DeSatanist was governing as a moderate at the time. He didn't show his extremist true colors until this year.

This is completely false- he's been off the deep end since 2021 for the most part though you saw him get worse in 2020.