Will Arkansas become the most Republican state in the country?

[WalterWhite]

Arkansas is the only state in the country that has consistently become more Republican each election since 1996.

1992: D+17.7%
1996: D+16.9%
2000: R+5.4%
2004: R+9.8%
2008: R+19.9%
2012: R+23.7%
2016: R+26.9%
2020: R+27.6%

Is this indicative of anything? Will Arkansas, in the future, become the most Republican state in the country?

[Tekken_Guy]

No. The 2016 to 2020 swing was mostly the effect of their not being a Clinton on the ballot in 2020.

[Pres Mike]

Idaho: 30.8
Utah: 33.1
West Virgina: 38.9
Wyoming: 43.4

Its entirely possible it votes furthur right than Idaho or Utah. But between its small black rural counties and Little Rock, I really doubt it.

[TML]

Idaho: 30.8
Utah: 33.1
West Virgina: 38.9
Wyoming: 43.4

Its entirely possible it votes furthur right than Idaho or Utah. But between its small black rural counties and Little Rock, I really doubt it.

Additionally, the northwestern part of the state (Fayetteville and surrounding areas) is also trending D.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Probably not, as there is a reliably blue urban area (Little Rock) and blue-trending growth area (NW Arkansas) that will likely stop it reaching margins like Wyoming and West Virginia. That said, I think it will shift right again next presidential cycle and the one after, and may eventually vote to the right of Oklahoma where the R vote share has stayed pretty static at ~65% for several cycles. Think there is more juice for the R's to squeeze out of the rurals, which actually look less deep red on the last presidential county map compared to Missouri's - a state where the overall R margin was not much more than half of Arkansas's.

[TDAS04]

I doubt it, for reasons provided by the above poster. Greater Little Rock and NW Arkansas should prevent the state from swinging as far as certain more rural states.

Looking at another state with pretty consistent swings in the opposite direction, there is a decent chance that Maryland could become the most Democratic state. It’s swung Democratic almost every time going back through 1988, with 2004 as the exception. Maryland was Biden’s third best state in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

I can see Idaho and Oklahoma getting pushed notably to the left going forward, but the Arkansas Dem floor is likely way above the North Dakota/Wyoming/West Virginia Dem floor.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Idaho: 30.8
Utah: 33.1
West Virgina: 38.9
Wyoming: 43.4

Its entirely possible it votes furthur right than Idaho or Utah. But between its small black rural counties and Little Rock, I really doubt it.

Arkansas actually did vote to the right of Utah in both 2016 (in terms of R margin) and 2020 (in absolute terms).

Idaho, though, will probably be a tougher challenge. Like Florida I get the feeling it’s been hoovering up R voters since Trump left office, and will probably yield a larger R margin too next year.