How would Joe Donnelly’s race be seen if he won re-election in 2018?

[Tekken_Guy]

Similar to the Claire McCaskill thread. How would Joe Donnelly’s race be seen if he won re-election in 2018?

[SnowLabrador]

It'd be rated as no worse than Tilt/Lean R by the forecasters, but we on this forum know better. He'd be DOA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It'd be rated as no worse than Tilt/Lean R by the forecasters, but we on this forum know better. He'd be DOA.

Tbf, a lot of the reason folks would say he's DOA is because of the 2018 results showing partisanship winning out; in the alternate reality where Donnelly won in 2018, the narrative partisanship always wins out would be a bit less solid, and people might treat him more similar to Tester (underdog but has strong local appeal in a state that is normally Safe R, but not ultra-deep R).

[Pericles]

It'd be rated as no worse than Tilt/Lean R by the forecasters, but we on this forum know better. He'd be DOA.

Tbf, a lot of the reason folks would say he's DOA is because of the 2018 results showing partisanship winning out; in the alternate reality where Donnelly won in 2018, the narrative partisanship always wins out would be a bit less solid, and people might treat him more similar to Tester (underdog but has strong local appeal in a state that is normally Safe R, but not ultra-deep R).

He could entrench himself more with 12 years as Senator. It would depend on how the last Congress went in this timeline-if he just replaced another Democrat so it was still 50-50 that likely hurts his chances compared to being able to vote against the party more. It would be very tough to win again. It'll be interesting to see how much Manchin overperforms by and if Tester wins, these races will be a good guide to show if these big Senate overperformances are still possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R.

[TML]

His approval rating was barely above water in 2018. Remember that in his 2018 campaign he ran so far to the right that it ended up turning off some people who would have otherwise voted for him (I remember reading at least one article from someone who originally planned to vote for him but then decided not to do so after being repulsed by one of his ads). If he were still in the Senate today there is plenty of reason to believe that he would behave similarly to Manchin, so that would be enough to further erode his popularity and make him an underdog.

[NewYorkExpress]

He'd be in a similar position to Manchin, but with the caveat that most of the Republican bench might be more interested in the Governor's race.

[Tekken_Guy]

He'd be in a similar position to Manchin, but with the caveat that most of the Republican bench might be more interested in the Governor's race.

Who would run for Senate then? Just Banks?

[NewYorkExpress]

He'd be in a similar position to Manchin, but with the caveat that most of the Republican bench might be more interested in the Governor's race.

Who would run for Senate then? Just Banks?

Probably Banks, maybe a former Representative like Marlin Stutzman, or Luke Messer. Also, it's certainly possible that Holcomb runs (he didn't IRL, but I imagine the NRSC would lobby him pretty hard to run in this scenario).

[ModerateRadical]

If Donnelly had won re-election in 2018, Mike Braun would most likely bear the lion's share of the blame for losing a winnable race. It'd be seen as a fluke that two representatives split the vote enough for an inexperienced outsider to come in and consolidate enough of the vote to win the primary. Donnelly would probably be considered D.O.A. (by both sides) in 2024 against any competent opponent, and Indiana Republicans would be wary about nominating an untested candidate, especially after seeing the 2022 midterm Senate losses in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

[President Johnson]

DOA

All Democratic incumbent losers of 2018 would have retired this year if they won, or they'd be finished.

[Mr. Smith]

DOA

All Democratic incumbent losers of 2018 would have retired this year if they won, or they'd be finished.

I do think McCaskill would go for it anyway, just like Tester or Brown right now, or Doug Jones in 2020. It's all a matter of mission.

Donnelly and Heitkamp would see the writing, and Bill Nelson seemed coaxed into 2018 like Manchin, so he'd definitely be out like Max Baucus or Tim Johnson in 2014.