Will future political alignments be based on something OTHER than political beliefs?

[WalterWhite]

Currently, political alignment is generally based off of political beliefs. If you support Keynesian economics, strong government social safety nets, progressive social policies, and a dovish foreign policy, you are most likely a Democrat/Democrat-leaning voter. If you support laissez-faire economics, weaker government/privatized social safety nets, conservative social policies, and a hawkish foreign policy, you are most likely a Republican/Republican-leaning voter. These are obviously oversimplifications, but they generally highlight where the parties stand on these issues.

However, such was not always the case. Ignoring the obvious (i.e. that the "Old Left" used to be the hawkish camp and that the "Old Right" used to be the dovish camp), partisan affiliation was significantly less correlated with political beliefs. During the latter half of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, there were economically conservative Democrats (Grover Cleveland) and economically populist Democrats (William Jennings Bryan); there were progressive Republicans (Theodore Roosevelt) and conservative Republicans (Herbert Hoover). In those days, partisan identification was much more closely correlated with region than with party: Northerners were Republicans, and Southerners were Democrats.

Throughout the 20th century, political parties started aligning themselves ideologically. With FDR's New Deal, Democrats became the party supportive of strong welfare programs. With LBJ's Great Society, Democrats continued to be the party supportive of strong welfare programs but also solidified themselves as the party of progressive social causes. Reagan's Reaganomics solidified the GOP as the party supportive of laissez-faire economics. While the parties are much less cleanly split on foreign policy, the Carter and Bush 43 administrations somewhat solidified the Democrats as the dovish party and Republicans as the hawkish party. This started on the presidential level first but slowly trickled down to the Senate and House levels. Throughout the 20th century, conservative Southern Democrats either switched parties (Strom Thurmond and Richard Shelby) or were booted from office; by 2014, virtually all conservative Southern Democrats lost their seats to conservative Republicans. The new wave of Southern Democrats (i.e. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff) are much more in-line with national Democratic politics. Nowadays, people who support Keynesian economics, strong government social safety nets, progressive social policies, and a dovish foreign policy vote Democratic; and people who support laissez-faire economics, weaker government/privatized social safety nets, conservative social policies, and a hawkish foreign policy vote Republican.

American politics is no longer fought around class, racial, gender, or religious division; ideological division now reigns supreme. Political polarization on ideological lines is at an all-time high; in the 2022 House Elections, Democrats won liberal voters 92% to 7%, and Republicans won conservative voters 91% to 8%. Culture war issues, such as abortion and LGBT rights, are certainly driving people into their respective ideological camps.

However, such divisions are bound to end eventually; partisanship by ideology is no exception. What could possibly shift partisanship away from political ideology and towards something else? If so, what will be the basis of future partisanship?