New Senate Rankings

[SPC]

as of 4/10/07:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Iowa
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Virginia
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina
Oregon
Maine
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Colorado

[Verily]

Changing a few:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa (up)
Montana (up)

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota (up)

Lean Dem
-

Tossup
Louisiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska (up)
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky (down)
New Mexico
North Carolina (up)
Virginia
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Oregon
Maine

Tossup
Minnesota (down)
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
-

Likely Dem
Colorado (down)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am only going to do the most vulnerable:

Dem

Likely dem:

NJ Lautenberg
MT Baucus

Lean Dem

SD T. Johnson

Tossup
LA M. Landrieu

GOP:

Likely GOP

ME Susan Collins

Lean GOP

MN N. Coleman
OR G. Smith

Tossup
NH: JE Sununu

Lean Dem
CO: open seat

Forget about Tom Harkin and Elizabeth Dole.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats:

Very strong D
IL MA DE RI WV MI

Strong D
AR IA MT

Likely D
NJ

Lean D
SD LA

Republicans:

Very strong R
ID WY AK MS AL SC

Strong R
KS KY TN GA

Likely R
NE OK TX

Lean R
NM NC ME MN VA

Tossup
NH OR

Lean D
CO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't trust that Grove Insight poll, on Or Gordon's smith, usually internals inflate the polls, I think G. Smith have a small lead.

[Rawlings]

I don't think there's a very good chance that Colorado goes Democrat.  The whirl around recent Democratic gains in Colorado don't signify a shift to the left so much as a trend away from the Republican Party seen across the country.  Moderate Democrats have beaten moderate Republicans in Colorado because the GOP brand has been miserable.  But Boulder Democrat Mark Udall is much more liberal than the state as a whole--or Gov. Ritter or Sen. Salazar--and he's facing Bob Schaffer, a well-liked conservative that is much closer to Colorado's sweet spot.

Because of the Democratic Convention being in town the media will cause a lot of commotion about this race--but it's mostly posturing.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't think there's a very good chance that Colorado goes Democrat.  The whirl around recent Democratic gains in Colorado don't signify a shift to the left so much as a trend away from the Republican Party seen across the country.  Moderate Democrats have beaten moderate Republicans in Colorado because the GOP brand has been miserable.  But Boulder Democrat Mark Udall is much more liberal than the state as a whole--or Gov. Ritter or Sen. Salazar--and he's facing Bob Schaffer, a well-liked conservative that is much closer to Colorado's sweet spot.

Because of the Democratic Convention being in town the media will cause a lot of commotion about this race--but it's mostly posturing.

If John Kerry, a northeastern liberal who ran a terrible campaign could get 47% in 2004, when the national dynamic was much more favorable to republicans, then I think Udall can win in 2008.

[SPC]

Here's a graphical representation of my Senate rankings:

[7,052,770]

Very strong R
ID WY AK MS AL SC

Strong R
KS KY TN GA

Mississippi really ought to just be Strong R and not Very Strong R, unless you specifically decided to take into account that Mike Moore apparently has no balls.

[Aizen]

Very strong R
ID WY AK MS AL SC

Strong R
KS KY TN GA

Mississippi really ought to just be Strong R and not Very Strong R, unless you specifically decided to take into account that Mike Moore apparently has no balls.

Strong, very strong, does it really make a difference?

[HardRCafé]

Mississippi really ought to just be Strong R and not Very Strong R, unless you specifically decided to take into account that Mike Moore apparently has no balls.

Idaho really ought to just be Strong R and not Very Strong R because all the Republicans might die the same day of chicken pox or something.

[Smash255]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

[SPC]

Boy, 2008 doesn't look like a good year for the Republicans. They have to defend 7 seats, with only 2 seats they could possibly gain.

[DownWithTheLeft]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

[Adlai Stevenson]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

It's too soon to predict 2010 or 2012, it just seems at this point as if the GOP will hold the edge

[Verily]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

It's too soon to predict 2010 or 2012, it just seems at this point as if the GOP will hold the edge

I'm sorry to disappoint, but there really are hardly any seats for the Republicans to target in 2010 just as in 2008. Maybe Colorado, though Salazar is quite popular, and Illinois if Obama wins the presidency and Blagojevich appoints someone unpopular. Other than those, the Democrats are all overwhelming popular and mostly in blue states.

By contrast, the Democrats stand a good chance at Florida (Martinez), Kentucky (Bunning), Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), North Carolina (Burr), and maybe Ohio (Voinovich).

[DownWithTheLeft]

A retirement in Hawaii could spark a Lingle or Aiona run in 2010, other top targets would include (but not limited to) Schwarenegger trying to defeat Boxer, Huckabee trying to upset Lincoln, Hoevan vs. Dorgan in ND.  Illinois is no shot as Senator Obama will cruise to reelection

[socaldem]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

Also note
2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

It's too soon to predict 2010 or 2012, it just seems at this point as if the GOP will hold the edge

I'm sorry to disappoint, but there really are hardly any seats for the Republicans to target in 2010 just as in 2008. Maybe Colorado, though Salazar is quite popular, and Illinois if Obama wins the presidency and Blagojevich appoints someone unpopular. Other than those, the Democrats are all overwhelming popular and mostly in blue states.

By contrast, the Democrats stand a good chance at Florida (Martinez), Kentucky (Bunning), Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), North Carolina (Burr), and maybe Ohio (Voinovich).

Not to mention Oklahoma and Kansas where Coburn and Brownback are vulnerable or may retire.  Paging Brad Henry (or Rep. Dan Boren)! Kathy Sebelius (or Rep. Dennis Moore)!

Also, GOP seats in Pennsylvania and Iowa should continue to be on the retirment watch screen because of the health and age of the incumbents.

[socaldem]

Using Jfern's formulation of very strong v. strong...

I will also rate the open seats for SD, NE, VA, NM, and MS in addition to the position of the seats if the incumbents run for reelection.

Democrats:

Very strong D
 DE IL MA MI RI WV

Strong D
IA MT

All of the above races are sure bets for Democrats.

Likely D
NJ AR SD

I'd like to see Lautenberg primaried by a fresh face. 

I think Johnson is still somewhat sketchy on reelection.  If Johnson runs for reelection, I dont think Rounds runs and even if he did, it would lean to Johnson.  If Johnson retires, as I think he may, its a toss-up until we know who the GOP recruit to face Herseth Sandlin will be, though I suspect Rounds is much more likely to run in that scenario.   If Herseth Sandlin is the candidate against a second tier gop opponent, the race is lean/likely D.

Lean D

--

Toss-up
LA (SD)

Louisiana really depends on GOP recruitment.  Also look at how Mitch Landrieu fares either in reelection or in, perhaps a gubernatorial attempt, to see how the Landrieu name is holding up. 


Republicans:

Very strong R
ID WY AK MS SC VA NE KS

Strong R
KY TN NM

Likely R
AL OK TX GA

I think Ron Sparks is running and he seems like a dynamite campaigner who may be able to rekindle some southern populism.  Since Sessions is more loathesome than and more gaffe prone than Allen, he shouldnt be counted out.

Lean R
ME MN (MS) NC (NE) OR (VA)

I don't think M. Warner runs for senate.  He wants governor again.  Thus (VA) leans GOP.  DeFazio isn't going to run in OR so that's not going TU right now.

Tossup
(NM) NH MN

Dems will find a better nominee than Franken and kick Norm to the curb.

Lean D
CO

The GOP had better hope it has a few retentions.

[Smash255]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

[Smash255]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

I did some figuring with the 02 numbers.  If you would cut her New Orleans margin in half she still wins, by a few thousand votes.  Also keep in mind how Republican of a year 2002 was.  Louisiana is more GOP now, and it is a Presidential year, but that difference is marginalized a bit when compared with the very Republican year of 2002.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

I did some figuring with the 02 numbers.  If you would cut her New Orleans margin in half she still wins, by a few thousand votes.  Also keep in mind how Republican of a year 2002 was.  Louisiana is more GOP now, and it is a Presidential year, but that difference is marginalized a bit when compared with the very Republican year of 2002.

I hope you are correct - some heavily Republican parishes in the 1st District of Louisiana, which voted with 72% of the vote for Bush in 2004, also lost population.  Hopefully that dents the GOP candidate running against Landrieu as well.