What would it take for your state to flip on the presidential level?

[Alben Barkley]

For KY it would probably take a total flatlining if not a reversal of Republican trends in the rurals along with explosive growth and landslide Democratic margins in the urban areas and the flipping of a number of suburban/exurban counties. This is basically what we saw in Beshear’s 2019 victiry and last year’s abortion referendum.

If your state leans one way or the other, what would it take to flip it in the opposite direction?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Basically all the conditions that allowed Obama to win Indiana but in reverse

1. You need a huge national wave in favor of the Republicans

2. You need the negative conditions in the country that are causing the wave to be more profound in Oregon Than the rest of the country like it was for Indiana in 2008

3. You need a characteristic republican from the West who is also extremely good at retail politics

4. You need that candidate to exploit an issue that can resonate both in helping increase base turnout and with usual democratic voters  of Oregon (sorta like how Obama exploited anti Iraq war feelings among the dem base and rust belt voters to help win in Indiana).

My guess is Colorado here would be the Missouri of that election, and would stay dem

[DS0816]

…

2. You need the negative conditions in the country that are causing the wave to be more profound in Oregon Than the rest of the country like it was for Indiana in 2008

3. You need a characteristic republican from the West…

Add the state of Washington.

Since Washington first voted in 1892, it and Oregon have voted the same in all U.S. presidential elections with exceptions of five cycles: 1896 (Republican pickup of the presidency for William McKinleywith Oregon); 1912 and 1916 (during the presidency of Democrat Woodrow Wilson when they never aligned the same); 1948 (when losing nominee Thomas Dewey won a Republican pickup of Oregon); and 1968 (when Republican presidential pickup winner Richard Nixon flipped and carried Oregon).

Oregon and Washington have carried the same since 1972—a total of 48 years, through 2020, for 13 consecutive cycles.

For the two states to have another occurrence in which they disagree—yes, the Republicans would succeed with flipping and carrying Oregon. But, the two are not far apart for where they tend to slot in the best-performed states rankings. So, it would be feasible that if a Republican wins the presidency and flips and carries Oregon … so, too, possibly with Washington.

[TML]

Here are the geographic keys for a Republican victory in New York:

-Win Long Island
-Win over 1/3 of the vote in NYC proper
-Keep things close in the northern NYC suburbs
-Do reasonably well in major upstate population centers like Albany, Buffalo, Ithaca, & Syracuse
-Run up the margins in rural upstate counties

[Roll Roons]

I think a Republican victory in NJ would look pretty similar to Jack's map in the 2021 gubernatorial race plus Passaic, Somerset and probably Bergen.

[Samof94]

Basically all the conditions that allowed Obama to win Indiana but in reverse

1. You need a huge national wave in favor of the Republicans

2. You need the negative conditions in the country that are causing the wave to be more profound in Oregon Than the rest of the country like it was for Indiana in 2008

3. You need a characteristic republican from the West who is also extremely good at retail politics

4. You need that candidate to exploit an issue that can resonate both in helping increase base turnout and with usual democratic voters  of Oregon (sorta like how Obama exploited anti Iraq war feelings among the dem base and rust belt voters to help win in Indiana).

My guess is Colorado here would be the Missouri of that election, and would stay dem

For Oregon, what if a Green Party candidate runs and does at least as well as Perot did in 1996? This would help the Rs as it'd split the D vote.

[Samof94]

Basically all the conditions that allowed Obama to win Indiana but in reverse

1. You need a huge national wave in favor of the Republicans

2. You need the negative conditions in the country that are causing the wave to be more profound in Oregon Than the rest of the country like it was for Indiana in 2008

3. You need a characteristic republican from the West who is also extremely good at retail politics

4. You need that candidate to exploit an issue that can resonate both in helping increase base turnout and with usual democratic voters  of Oregon (sorta like how Obama exploited anti Iraq war feelings among the dem base and rust belt voters to help win in Indiana).

My guess is Colorado here would be the Missouri of that election, and would stay dem

For Oregon, what if a Green Party candidate runs and does at least as well as Perot did in 1996? This would help the Rs as it'd split the D vote.

For a D victory in Texas

1. You'd need a horrifically bad GOP Candidate who lacks Trump's Charisma.

2. 2008 like economic conditions might help for the Dem.

3. The Latino vote for the GOP has to be unusually low.

4. The Dem would have to be from Texas(or have a Texan on the ticket) and possibly be more conservative than usual on guns, fossil fuels, and maybe religion.
 
5.  You'd need some political issue that leads to an abnormal shift to the left.

Even that might not be enough.

[progressive85]

1. A massive depression after 12 years of unpopular Democratic presidents.

2. A likable moderate from Massachusetts is the Republican candidate, and they are opposed to the social conservatism of the party platform.

3. Depressed turnout from Democrats and very high turnout from Republicans, with independents heavily favoring the Republicans.

[dw93]

Moderate enough to win back the collar counties while maintaining gains in the southern central part of the state. On top of that, a darn good Republican environment.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Win Maricopa county

[Xing]

Barring the parties doing near 180s on the issues, I’d say a very flawed and corrupt Democrat who holds somewhat conservative positions facing a relatively moderate (especially on social issues) Republican, with a popular left-wing politician running a very strong third party of independent campaign.

[Zenobiyl]

Abysmal urban turnout & reversion of suburban trends.

[BG-NY]

New York.

20 years, and the GOP not reverting to Bushism.

[MarkD]

A shift of about 25 points more Republican in Lake, DuPage, and Will Counties.

[bagelman]

Ohio isn't at the point of Indiana 2008 yet (hopefully) but you need a strong national Dem win the likes of which we haven't seen since then. That or some way of turning back the clock and also have a decent win.

[Bush did 311]

The major cities in NC would need to maintain their growth into the 2030s, with whatever demoralizing state level policies republicans cook up here having little effect in deterring newcomers or scaring current residents out. It's uncertain whether the state would flip in 2024, 2028, 2032 etc but it would be inevitable if the current trends continued long enough.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan:

This is a swing state, or at least it has been in recent years. In a good year for Republicans it is winnable. But -- Republicans must abandon the crazy stuff. They need to quit pandering to such likes as the Michigan Militia.

Remember that some creeps plotted to kidnap the Governor, which does not look good.

Over the long terms the demographics must go R or the Republicans must develop a very different coalition that they do not now have.

[GregTheGreat657]

Honestly, it would take a major realignment, with urban voters shifting heavily towards the GOP

[DS0816]

I live in bellwether Michigan.

The next Republican pickup of the presidency will include a likewise Republican pickup of this state.

It is likely Michigan will continue to closely reflect the U.S. Popular Vote.

A Republican pickup of Michigan would include a Republican pickup of the county which may now be the best bellwether county to the state: Saginaw County.

I also look to a Republican pickup of Muskegon County.

The path to carrying Michigan is realigning to some extent. Some counties which used to be aligned to the Republicans are either realigned to the Democrats … or they are well on their way. Likewise with reverse situation. And this is why I single out Muskegon County.

In 2020, for U.S. Senate, then-Republican challenger John James (now-U.S. Rep. with Michigan #10) almost unseated Democratic incumbent Gary Peters, with a statewide percentage-points margin of –1.68. (Outcome: James 48.22% vs. Peters 49.90%.)

In Muskegon County, James won a Republican pickup to carry it by +0.49. (Outcome: James 49.02% vs. Peters 48.53%.)

By comparison, Kent County, with its most populous city and county seat Grand Rapids, is realigning to the Democrats, and both Joe Biden (with a Democratic pickup of the state and county) and Peters … was more Democratic than Muskegon County. (It used to be the opposite.)

It is highly likely a Republican pickup of Michigan will include Muskegon County.

A related report:

https://www.mlive.com/politics/2020/11/very-high-turnout-in-muskegon-county-leads-to-strong-showing-by-republicans.html

[TodayJunior]

An economic downturn on a Republican’s watch.

[Goldwater]

Time travel.

[GAinDC]

Georgia: A turnout dropoff in Atlanta

DC: A complete realignment