Will Democrats become the federal party and Republicans become the local party?

[WalterWhite]

Democrats have defined themselves as a more "federalist" party, and Republicans have positioned themselves as champions of "states' rights". Democrats have, since FDR, always believed in a strong federal government, and Republicans have, since Reagan, always believed in a limited federal government. Those attitudes seem to be reflected in the data, with Democrats underperforming in local/statewide elections (Governor, state legislature) as compared to federal elections (House, Senate, and Presidency).

STATEWIDE/LOCAL RACES:

1) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held a plurality of governorships for only four years: 2007 to 2010. Republicans have held a plurality of governorships every other year during that time range. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have only held a plurality of governorships in 4/23 (17.4%) of the past elections.

2) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held a plurality of state legislative chambers for only four years as well: 2007 to 2010. Republicans have held a plurality of state legislative chambers every other year during that time range. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have only held a plurality of state legislative chambers in 4/23 (17.4%) of the past elections.

FEDERAL RACES:

1) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held a majority in the House for eight years—2007 to 2010, and 2019 to 2022—by winning the 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2020 House elections. In addition, Democrats have won the House popular vote in 2006, 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have won the House in 4/12 (33.3%) of the past elections and have won the House popular vote in 5/12 (41.7%) of the past elections.

2) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats (including Bernie Sanders, Joe Liebermann, Angus King, and Kyrsten Sinema) have held a majority in the Senate for eleven years—2001, 2007 to 2014, and 2021 to 2022—by winning the 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2020, and 2022 Senate elections. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have won the Senate in 6/12 (50.0%) of the past elections.

3) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held the Presidency for ten years—2009 to 2016, and 2021 to 2022—by winning the 2008, 2012, and 2020 Presidential elections. In addition, Democrats have won the popular vote in Presidential elections in 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have won the Presidency in 3/6 (50.0%) of the past elections and have won the Presidential popular vote in 5/6 (86.7%) of the past elections.

Political polarization has not stopped this trend; even in the most recent year Democrats won both chambers of Congress, 2020, Republicans still won/retained 61 legislative chambers, as opposed to the 37 legislative chambers the Democrats won/retained. A similar occurrence happened in 2018, when Democrats won the House by a sizable margin (and the biggest House popular vote margin for Democrats since 2008), but the Republicans still retained a clear majority of state legislative chambers. For statewide races, the difference in strength of the Democratic Party between Senate (federal) and gubernatorial (local) elections is clear. In 2022, Democrats won 4 Senate races in states Republicans won on the gubernatorial level (Vermont, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Nevada), but Republicans only won 2 Senate races in states where Democrats won on the gubernatorial level (Wisconsin and Kansas). In 2018, those numbers were 6 (Ohio, Maryland, Arizona, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts) and 0. In 2014, those numbers were 3 (Michigan, Illinois, and New Mexico) and 1 (Colorado).

Will this trend grow more prominent in the future? Will Democrats become overwhelmingly dominant in federal elections, and will Republicans become overwhelmingly dominant in statewide elections? Will future elections see overwhelming victories for Democrats in the House, Senate, and Presidency—as well as overwhelming victories for Republicans in state legislative and gubernatorial elections?

[Samof94]

Democrats have defined themselves as a more "federalist" party, and Republicans have positioned themselves as champions of "states' rights". Democrats have, since FDR, always believed in a strong federal government, and Republicans have, since Reagan, always believed in a limited federal government. Those attitudes seem to be reflected in the data, with Democrats underperforming in local/statewide elections (Governor, state legislature) as compared to federal elections (House, Senate, and Presidency).

STATEWIDE/LOCAL RACES:

1) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held a plurality of governorships for only four years: 2007 to 2010. Republicans have held a plurality of governorships every other year during that time range. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have only held a plurality of governorships in 4/23 (17.4%) of the past elections.

2) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held a plurality of state legislative chambers for only four years as well: 2007 to 2010. Republicans have held a plurality of state legislative chambers every other year during that time range. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have only held a plurality of state legislative chambers in 4/23 (17.4%) of the past elections.

FEDERAL RACES:

1) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held a majority in the House for eight years—2007 to 2010, and 2019 to 2022—by winning the 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2020 House elections. In addition, Democrats have won the House popular vote in 2006, 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have won the House in 4/12 (33.3%) of the past elections and have won the House popular vote in 5/12 (41.7%) of the past elections.

2) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats (including Bernie Sanders, Joe Liebermann, Angus King, and Kyrsten Sinema) have held a majority in the Senate for eleven years—2001, 2007 to 2014, and 2021 to 2022—by winning the 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2020, and 2022 Senate elections. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have won the Senate in 6/12 (50.0%) of the past elections.

3) From 2000 to 2022, Democrats have held the Presidency for ten years—2009 to 2016, and 2021 to 2022—by winning the 2008, 2012, and 2020 Presidential elections. In addition, Democrats have won the popular vote in Presidential elections in 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. In other words, since 2000, Democrats have won the Presidency in 3/6 (50.0%) of the past elections and have won the Presidential popular vote in 5/6 (86.7%) of the past elections.

Political polarization has not stopped this trend; even in the most recent year Democrats won both chambers of Congress, 2020, Republicans still won/retained 61 legislative chambers, as opposed to the 37 legislative chambers the Democrats won/retained. A similar occurrence happened in 2018, when Democrats won the House by a sizable margin (and the biggest House popular vote margin for Democrats since 2008), but the Republicans still retained a clear majority of state legislative chambers. For statewide races, the difference in strength of the Democratic Party between Senate (federal) and gubernatorial (local) elections is clear. In 2022, Democrats won 4 Senate races in states Republicans won on the gubernatorial level (Vermont, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Nevada), but Republicans only won 2 Senate races in states where Democrats won on the gubernatorial level (Wisconsin and Kansas). In 2018, those numbers were 6 (Ohio, Maryland, Arizona, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts) and 0. In 2014, those numbers were 3 (Michigan, Illinois, and New Mexico) and 1 (Colorado).

Will this trend grow more prominent in the future? Will Democrats become overwhelmingly dominant in federal elections, and will Republicans become overwhelmingly dominant in statewide elections? Will future elections see overwhelming victories for Democrats in the House, Senate, and Presidency—as well as overwhelming victories for Republicans in state legislative and gubernatorial elections?

A lot of smaller states(+Texas and Florida) are basically assumed to be automatically Republican.

[WalterWhite]

A lot of smaller states(+Texas and Florida) are basically assumed to be automatically Republican.

If that were the reason, that would also mean the Senate would be dominated by Republicans. However, the Senate is much more competitive than state legislatures. I simply think Democrats do better in federal races, and Republicans do better in local races.

[Samof94]

A lot of smaller states(+Texas and Florida) are basically assumed to be automatically Republican.

If that were the reason, that would also mean the Senate would be dominated by Republicans. However, the Senate is much more competitive than state legislatures. I simply think Democrats do better in federal races, and Republicans do better in local races.

That is true. Some Paleoconservatives want to undo the 17th Amendment.