Will Russia try to establish a second front of the war from Transnistria?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Lukashenko has supplied Russia with plenty already, and will continue to do so for this very reason. Every Belarusian tank which ends up in the Russian army is one less reason for Putin to pressure Lukashenko to send in the Belarusian army.

By the way, recently in an interview with a pseudo-Ukrainian ruscist journalist, Lukashenko said that Belarus and Russia have a joint army. This can be considered a frank admission that thanks to Lukashenko, Belarus was quietly annexed.

[Kali Redcoat]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obviously not, but what do the Russians even have stationed in Transnistria? Seems like whatever's there is structured to ward off a Moldovan incursion rather than being anything which could threaten western Ukraine.

[Lykaon]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

This may be the stupidest take I’ve seen so far. Congratulations, you’ve been Putin’s Woodysucker, J-China, and global south guy.

Russia has no way of getting to Odesa. Let alone back across the Dnipro. Their chance to make it to Odesa was thwarted by the heroic stand by Ukrainian soldiers AND irregular civilian volunteer militias in Mykolaïv and Voznesensk, preventing a crossing of the Southern Bug and preventing the capture of Yuzhnoukraïnsk NPP.

Two major rivers, and the fact that Ukraine will send any landing ship approaching Odesa down to the depths to join Moskva make it impossible for this to happen. Western support will continue regardless. This war is too important to let Putin win. The US knows it, Europe knows it, and anyone opposed to the Moscow-Beijing Axis knows it

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate.

This dude flooded his own defense line with a catastrophic dam explosion, tried to destroy the Ukrainian electricity grid and mined the ZNPP. He also conducts massive attacks with missiles, aerial bombs and powerful Iranian drones on civilian infrastructure almost every two weeks. Obviously, he's NOT trying to looking moderate.

[Samof94]

The war is not looking particularly great for Russia. Russia failed to capture Kiev, the largest, city, and the second largest, city, Kharkiv. Russia is also having trouble holding onto the Kherson Oblast.

However, Russia has troops stationed in Transnistria. Do you think Russia will try to use its troops in Transnistria to launch a second front for the invasion, forcing Ukraine to fight a two-front war?

The Russians are too tired to do that. The geography for that is also not very good either and the Moldovans hate Russia.

[Stranger in a strange land]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

Russia blew up the Anotonvsky Bridge when they retreated from Kherson, indicating that they don't plan on re-crossing the Dnipro anytime in the current war. Ukraine is more likely to end the war holding all of it's pre-2014 territory and then some than Russia is to take Odesa.

[Kali Redcoat]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

This may be the stupidest take I’ve seen so far. Congratulations, you’ve been Putin’s Woodysucker, J-China, and global south guy.

Russia has no way of getting to Odesa. Let alone back across the Dnipro. Their chance to make it to Odesa was thwarted by the heroic stand by Ukrainian soldiers AND irregular civilian volunteer militias in Mykolaïv and Voznesensk, preventing a crossing of the Southern Bug and preventing the capture of Yuzhnoukraïnsk NPP.

Two major rivers, and the fact that Ukraine will send any landing ship approaching Odesa down to the depths to join Moskva make it impossible for this to happen. Western support will continue regardless. This war is too important to let Putin win. The US knows it, Europe knows it, and anyone opposed to the Moscow-Beijing Axis knows it

Wow. Here's your Reddit silver sir. Also I don't know who those guys are.

The simple fact is that Russia has a larger population to pull men from than Ukraine, and that sanctions did not noticeably impact public opinion of the war, nor have they prevented Russia from continuing its war effort. And as Ukraine is running out of troops, Russia will soon mobilize yet again and send more troops into the conflict. The result of this war was preordained for this reason. Even American media is catching up.

And as I said before, Putin is a moderate within a Russian context. For every dovish Russian, there are more than enough Russians who think Putin is not going nearly hard enough.

[dead0man]

And as I said before, Putin is a moderate within a Russian context. For every dovish Russian, there are more than enough Russians who think Putin is not going nearly hard enough.

and yet none of them are signing up to fight his war of aggression.  Wasn't the last Russian mobilization full of grandpas and convicts?  Do you think the quality will be better next time?  If yes, why?

[Peeperkorn]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

"Two more weeks!"

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And as I said before, Putin is a moderate within a Russian context. For every dovish Russian, there are more than enough Russians who think Putin is not going nearly hard enough.

and yet none of them are signing up to fight his war of aggression.  Wasn't the last Russian mobilization full of grandpas and convicts?  Do you think the quality will be better next time?  If yes, why?

Chickenhawks are a global phenomenon.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Also I don't know who those guys are.

You can see them next to you if you look behind the office partition.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russian propaganda loves to assert "we haven't even been trying up to now!".

Which really does raise all sorts of questions.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Russian propaganda loves to assert "we haven't even been trying up to now!".

Which really does raise all sorts of questions.

Putin expected his Military Special Operation to be quick and easy in large part because his intelligence briefers were telling him that they had recruited tons of Ukrainian assets/collaborators who were just desperate for Moscow's help to overthrow Zelenskky and reunite Little Russia with its big brother.