MS-GOV: On Message Inc. (Reeves Internal) Reeves +17

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.djournal.com/news/state-news/leaked-reeves-poll-shows-big-lead-but-came-before-presley-s-first-tv-ads/article_4069c1a0-2b38-11ee-b5fe-6384641d4c83.html

An internal poll for Republican Gov. Tate Reeves’ reelection campaign showed Reeves with a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Brandon Presley early this month, but it was conducted before Presley began airing TV ads in the race.

Meanwhile, Presley’s campaign maintains the race is still competitive, pointing to new independent polling from Morning Consult released Tuesday showing Reeves as one of the nation’s least popular governors and the least popular in the South.

The Reeves polling, dated July 7, had Reeves winning a hypothetical ballot contest by 17 points, with 49% of voters for Reeves, 32% for Presley, and 20% undecided. Presley faces low name ID outside his home district and will need to build awareness among voters across the state to win, the Reeves poll indicated.

[SnowLabrador]

He probably won't win by quite this much, but it will be double digits.

[Duke of York]

He probably won't win by quite this much, but it will be double digits.

You also said Kelly would win in Wisconsin.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Meanwhile, Presley’s campaign maintains the race is still competitive, pointing to new independent polling from Morning Consult released Tuesday showing Reeves as one of the nation’s least popular governors and the least popular in the South.

This is true (the list was posted on here) but every governor on that list was above water and this is Mississippi here, an inelastic deep red state. Any expectations I had that Reeves' unpopularity or Presley's surname would make a difference are gone now. I think this will be at least a high-single-digit R hold.