VA-GOV 2025: Spanberger running

[LabourJersey]

I wonder if she’s already eyeing a 2028 Presidential run if she wins the governorship. That would be awesome.

I disagree about running for President.

The timing of Virginia gubernatorial elections are *very* unfavorable for running a presidential campaign.

You either have to lay the groundwork for a run immediately, try to run late only to be beset by your midterms, or run long after your term ends when you're less relevant.

Virginia Governors are basically operating on a different timeline from the rest of politics.

VP is a different story, though.

In the event her presidential/vice-presidential aspirations falls through for the 2028 election cycle, she always has the option of running for Sen. Tim Kaine's seat in 2030 provided (1) he retires that year and (2) he is re-elected next year for his fourth term.  Gov. Glenn Youngkin would provide a very stiff challenge if he runs against Sen. Kaine next year.  

Winning a Gubernatorial election in an off year is very different then winning a senate election in a presidential year

I am not seeing Youngkin beating Sen. Tim Kaine, of course, but he is still a popular governor, and the best Republicans can put forward if his 2024 presidential ambitions are blocked -and if he is not keen to be Trump's sidekick in the Naval Observatory. And then there is the 2026 midterm race against Sen. Mark Warner that he could look forward to if he decides to stick with his present job until the end of his term.  Which would work out splendidly for him if President Biden wins a second term.   

Youngkin's popularity is very soft and entirely because of his limited ability to pass sweeping conservative legislation.

If Republicans had both chambers in 2022/23 they would have passed a ton of very right-wing legislation and Youngkin would be underwater in approval ratings.

If he were to run for the Senate his actual votes (and not his accomplishments/lack thereof) would be the focus, and that wouldn't be popular. Kaine is also a popular incumbent Senator which is tough to beat.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...

Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...

Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...

Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1731652825216582005?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1731652825216582005?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Does he have a shot at getting the nomination and if so could he win the general?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1731652825216582005?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Does he have a shot at getting the nomination and if so could he win the general?

Right now the primary is spanbergers to lose. She's been laying the groundwork for this for a while,  and has the party support to show for it. Stoney meanwhile has...issues, to put it mildly.  He's not that popular,  at least compared to the TMac challengers from 2021. See his two failed casino referendums for easy evidence.  He already has a lot of the African American side of the party, Louise Lucas immediately hopped on board for example, but one wonders where he will find other supporters. Stoney has not been a friend to the Ideological progressive types who would jump to vote against spanberger if given a incentive.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1731652825216582005?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Does he have a shot at getting the nomination and if so could he win the general?

Right now the primary is spanbergers to lose. She's been laying the groundwork for this for a while,  and has the party support to show for it. Stoney meanwhile has...issues, to put it mildly.  He's not that popular,  at least compared to the TMac challengers from 2021. See his two failed casino referendums for easy evidence.  He already has a lot of the African American side of the party, Louise Lucas immediately hopped on board for example, but one wonders where he will find other supporters. Stoney has not been a friend to the Ideological progressive types who would jump to vote against spanberger if given a incentive.

Stoney's record is bad enough that I could see Spanberger having a shot of winning Richmond over him. He has never won more than 40% of the vote in both his election bids as Mayor. The only areas I could see him genuinely doing well is Hampton Roads and southside where people don't really know him and an area Spanberger never represented.

[beaver2.0]

Stoney has received an endorsement from Terry McAuliffe.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/05/mcauliffe-stoney-2025-virginia-governor-race-00130226

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stoney has received an endorsement from Terry McAuliffe.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/05/mcauliffe-stoney-2025-virginia-governor-race-00130226

 No surprise there

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...

Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.   

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...
Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.    

How high could Democrats get in 2025 in the HoD assuming Trump wins in 2024 and the economy is similar to 2009?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...
Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.   

How high could Democrats get in 2025 in the HoD assuming Trump wins in 1024?

Quite high.  There were 6 seats Republicans won by less than 5 this year and 11 they won by less than 10.  However, VA Republicans remain extremely well-organized downballot (including during the Trump administration), so I think the most plausible is an intermediate Dem wave with those 6 seats flipping, assuming R's hold the presidency. 

The more interesting signal is that even with a Biden reelection, D's could still gain a seat or 2 on net.

The bullish case for R's would be that they can make something happen in Virginia Beach in addition to Southside in the long run with black voters slowly drifting their way.  But in the short run, only one HoD seat in that area was even close, and it now has a star Dem incumbent.  There's also a VA Beach state senate seat that was kind of unexpectedly second tier competitive this year and could be worth the investment in the long run? 

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...
Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.    

How high could Democrats get in 2025 in the HoD assuming Trump wins in 1024?

Quite high.  There were 6 seats Republicans won by less than 5 this year and 11 they won by less than 10.  However, VA Republicans remain extremely well-organized downballot (including during the Trump administration), so I think the most plausible is an intermediate Dem wave with those 6 seats flipping, assuming R's hold the presidency.  

The more interesting signal is that even with a Biden reelection, D's could still gain a seat or 2 on net.

I think complicating this is that I believe we are headed towards a ‘08 style recession or worse  soon given the economic fundamentals (I find it hard to believe that an economy used to 0% interest rates for over a decade can adjust to 5+% this easily, and M2 supply is shrinking for the first time since the Great Depression). If one hasn’t happened yet by ‘24, it almost certainly does by ‘25. Hence I tend to believe that the magnitude of the wave for the out of power party in 2025 should be larger (so I doubt Democrats do better than 2023 if Biden holds and think that 60+ is possible for Ds with Trump).

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...
Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.   

How high could Democrats get in 2025 in the HoD assuming Trump wins in 1024?

Quite high.  There were 6 seats Republicans won by less than 5 this year and 11 they won by less than 10.  However, VA Republicans remain extremely well-organized downballot (including during the Trump administration), so I think the most plausible is an intermediate Dem wave with those 6 seats flipping, assuming R's hold the presidency. 

The more interesting signal is that even with a Biden reelection, D's could still gain a seat or 2 on net.

I think complicating this is that I believe we are headed towards a ‘08 style recession or worse  soon given the economic fundamentals (I find it hard to believe that an economy used to 0% interest rates for over a decade can adjust to 5+% this easily). If one hasn’t happened yet by ‘24, it almost certainly does by ‘25. Hence I tend to believe that the magnitude of the wave for the out of power party in 2025 should be larger (so I doubt Democrats do better than 2023 if Biden holds and think that 60+ is possible for Ds with Trump).

This is where we diverge.  Compared to COVID or 2008-12, I think we are headed back into the kind of boring economy where individual candidates and campaign decisions matter more for the next few years.  This isn't a pro-D thing, though.  Biden probably struggles vs. generic D in a fully in-person toss up campaign, and VA state legislative R's probably overperform generic R in "boring" times.     

[John Lewis Fan]

What if any scenario would lead to Republicans winning this office in a Trump won scenario? Can't really think of anything if its Spanberger unless something really scandalous comes out about her.

[Skill and Chance]

What if any scenario would lead to Republicans winning this office in a Trump won scenario? Can't really think of anything if its Spanberger unless something really scandalous comes out about her.

Successful primary of Spanberger by a crazy person is the most plausible path to an R governor with an R presidency (and somewhat analogous to the last upset of the VA trend in 2013), but even that's a huge stretch.  For statewide offices, the open primary system means anti-Trump R's cross over and choose the most moderate Dem every time.  Combine that with the $200K+ household income outer NOVA Dems who fear CA/NY state income taxes just slightly less than they fear TX/FL social policy, and I just don't see a statewide path for a crazy leftist Dem.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What if any scenario would lead to Republicans winning this office in a Trump won scenario? Can't really think of anything if its Spanberger unless something really scandalous comes out about her.

Maybe if she made a consensual sex tape. Apparently that will sink you if you're a woman in Virginia.

[Frodo]

For what it's worth, she has my endorsement and support in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. 

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1745513889838596196

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1745513889838596196

She raised 3.6 times more than Deal Philips for just a statewide election that even occurs a full year later. Let that sink in.

[Oryxslayer]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

[henster]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

Honestly LT Gov is probably a big downgrade for him at least salary wise he makes $125K a year as Mayor and would make $36K as LT Gov. I don't think Stoney is independently wealthy so for him he mind as well go for the top spot or take his chances in the private sector.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

Honestly LT Gov is probably a big downgrade for him at least salary wise he makes $125K a year as Mayor and would make $36K as LT Gov. I don't think Stoney is independently wealthy so for him he mind as well go for the top spot or take his chances in the private sector.

I'd have to imagine that the advantage of his presence on the ticket, even if not on the top, is so large that Democratic donors would, erm. resolve any salary-related issues quite easily.

[Oryxslayer]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

https://twitter.com/LevarStoney/status/1782726455056568581?t=3SLX51uvhV_-CkLj3yV...

Called it. He's not going to be uncontested though:

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1782732894198227451?t=abFYeziGTKQ492PhQ5Ms3Q&...