VA-GOV 2025: Spanberger running

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Wittman retires his seat has the potential to flip as it contains a lot of the Richmond suburbs which have been trending hard for the democrats. Biden won Chesterfield County for the first time since 1948 for example.

[Holmes]

"Joe Biden wasn't elected to be FDR; he was elected to be normal and stop the chaos."  So said Ms. Spanberger in 2021.  If only Biden stuck to that script.

If only this were actually true.

[Fuzzy Bear]

"Joe Biden wasn't elected to be FDR; he was elected to be normal and stop the chaos."  So said Ms. Spanberger in 2021.  If only Biden stuck to that script.

If only this were actually true.

If Biden was elected to be Bernie Sanders, it was a stealth job.

[Sir Mohamed]

Spanberger vs. Sears would be an interesting race. Tossup with Biden as prez, Likely D with Trump.

[Holmes]

"Joe Biden wasn't elected to be FDR; he was elected to be normal and stop the chaos."  So said Ms. Spanberger in 2021.  If only Biden stuck to that script.

If only this were actually true.

If Biden was elected to be Bernie Sanders, it was a stealth job.

Whatever that means.

[Vosem]

Spanberger seems like a very strong candidate. Considering the VA statewide swing, she should've lost in both 2020 and 2022, and while she maybe got lucky that Freitas and Vega were kind of weak campaigners, both were ultimately recruited by the national party and weren't, like, lunatics whose campaigns collapsed or anything. She also has a strong reputation of standing up to extremists in her party.

"Joe Biden wasn't elected to be FDR; he was elected to be normal and stop the chaos."  So said Ms. Spanberger in 2021.  If only Biden stuck to that script.

If only this were actually true.

...Spanberger did say that; it is true. In fact absent a few exceptions conspicuous for their strangeness, like student loan forgiveness, Biden mostly has been a very low-ambition and small-c conservative President. Virtually all of his greatest accomplishments, from the Ukraine conflict to highly-touted provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, have taken the form 'subsidize x good thing'.

[2016]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

Sears is a dingbat. She's lucky she got elected in the first place.

[2016]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

Sears is a dingbat. She's lucky she got elected in the first place.

Ah, I see we're turning to RACISM again. You are not even one bit better than Joy Reid who claimed on air during MSNBC's 2021 Election Night Coverage that Sears was elected by White Supremacists.

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

Sears is a dingbat. She's lucky she got elected in the first place.

Ah, I see we're turning to RACISM again. You are not even one bit better than Joy Reid who claimed on air during MSNBC's 2021 Election Night Coverage that Sears was elected by White Supremacists.

Huh? Literally has nothing to do with race. Stacey Garrity is the same thing. She's a dingbat too. They're both in the same position - just kind of rode into office without the general electorate really knowing how insane they are.

[President Johnson]

Endorsed. She's a good fit for the state as whole.

Spanberger wouldn't even necessarily risk her House seat as the election is held in an odd numbered year, so she could still run for reelection 2026 in case she loses. On the Republican side, I'd bet on Sears being their nominee.

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

VA-GOV elections are extremely uncorrelated with the current governor's standing.  Historically, which party wins the presidency is close to the ballgame.  The opposite party of the president almost always wins the VA-GOV election the following year.

Where Spanberger sticks out is as someone who runs far enough ahead of Generic Dem to win even after a Biden reelection.

[President Johnson]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker were in 70s territory approvals. Popularity of a popular but term-limited incumbent can't always be transferred to their party's candidate. Didn't even work with Clinton in 2000 and Obama in 2016. There are certainly more examples at the state level.

[Atlas Force]

Endorsed. She's a good fit for the state as whole.

Spanberger wouldn't even necessarily risk her House seat as the election is held in an odd numbered year, so she could still run for reelection 2026 in case she loses. On the Republican side, I'd bet on Sears being their nominee.

She’s not running for re-election in 2024

[DaleCooper]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

Sears is a dingbat. She's lucky she got elected in the first place.

Ah, I see we're turning to RACISM again. You are not even one bit better than Joy Reid who claimed on air during MSNBC's 2021 Election Night Coverage that Sears was elected by White Supremacists.

Huh? Literally has nothing to do with race. Stacey Garrity is the same thing. She's a dingbat too. They're both in the same position - just kind of rode into office without the general electorate really knowing how insane they are.

Conservatives love playing the race card.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/jaaavis/status/1723169875869270107

[MargieCat]

It's a classy move of Spanberger to not run for re-election to the house, since she is running for governor the following year. I hope Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer do the same thing, if they decide to run for governor.

In Houston, State Senator John Whitmire had announced his run for Mayor back in 2021, but still ran for re-election to his State Senate seat in 2022, blocking it from turning over to a different Democrat. A very low-class move. Of course you can make the argument that SJL did the same thing with her congressional seat, but she got into the race months after her re-election.

[LtNOWIS]

Big fan of Spanberger. Will wholeheartedly support her over Levar Stones in the 2025 primary.

[The Mikado]

Spanberger seems like a very strong candidate. Considering the VA statewide swing, she should've lost in both 2020 and 2022, and while she maybe got lucky that Freitas and Vega were kind of weak campaigners, both were ultimately recruited by the national party and weren't, like, lunatics whose campaigns collapsed or anything. She also has a strong reputation of standing up to extremists in her party.

VA-07 is Biden +5, Youngkin +5. Spanberger 2022 +4. Almost matching Biden is an overperformance, but the expected result in 2022 based on statewide would be basically dead even, not her favored to lose.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Big fan of Spanberger. Will wholeheartedly support her over Levar Stones in the 2025 primary.

Stoney was in student gov at college, that alone disqualifies him in my book

[brucejoel99]

Big fan of Spanberger. Will wholeheartedly support her over Levar Stones in the 2025 primary.

Stoney was in student gov at college, that alone disqualifies him in my book

also doesn't tip!

[henster]

It definitely looks like a Spanberger vs. Stoney showdown. Stoney really has no business running though, his tenure as Mayor has really been rocky and its evident by the fact he was reelected with just 38% of the vote in 2020. Spanberger has represented both the Richmond and NoVA media markets so she will have the name ID advantage over Stoney who will probably underperform in his area given his record.

[LtNOWIS]

Well, here's the opening ad for Spanberger. Well made, but nothing crazy. She does lay out the basis for her campaign, which is bipartisan accomplishment, normalcy, effective governance, etc.

[Zedonathin2020]

She could win NoVa by Assad margins if she pulls her cards right

[Fwillb21]

I wonder if she’s already eyeing a 2028 Presidential run if she wins the governorship. That would be awesome.