Could FL Gov Flip in 2026?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSantis seems to be governing the state like Alabama. Also, Trump seems to be the favorite for 2024 given that the national polls show a 4 point swing to the right from 2020.

Keep in mind VA-Gov flipped in 2021, and FL probably won't be more than R +10 in a neutral environment by 2024.

[TML]

It is theoretically possible, but this would at the very least require the Florida Democratic Party to get their act together after floundering for over a decade at this point.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is theoretically possible, but this would at the very least require the Florida Democratic Party to get their act together after floundering for over a decade at this point.

The Virginia Republican party got their act together in 2021, after nominating Corey Stewart as recently as 2018. They have one of the best Republican candidate recruitments now (which is admittedly a low bar).

[Tekken_Guy]

It is theoretically possible, but this would at the very least require the Florida Democratic Party to get their act together after floundering for over a decade at this point.

The Virginia Republican party got their act together in 2021, after nominating Corey Stewart as recently as 2018.

Imagine if it’s a VA-GOV 2021 redux, with Democrats nominating a fresh-faced business moderate and Republicans nominating Rick Scott.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is theoretically possible, but this would at the very least require the Florida Democratic Party to get their act together after floundering for over a decade at this point.

The Virginia Republican party got their act together in 2021, after nominating Corey Stewart as recently as 2018.

Imagine if it’s a VA-GOV 2021 redux, with Democrats nominating a fresh-faced business moderate and Republicans nominating Rick Scott.

Even better if it's not Scott (ie Gaetz would probably perform much worse). Youngkin would've won by more against any of McAuliffe's primary challengers.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Probably only if DeSantis drops the ball big time by then, the FLGOP nominates a truly execrable candidate and Trump is back in the White House acting like a true dictator and with approval ratings in or below the 20’s. Just seems like trends in the state are moving hugely against the D’s at the moment. Plus the state just seems to have a long-standing preference for R govs. The last time it had a D gov, Nebraska (!) also had one.

[Person Man]

The next Democrat Governor of Florida is going to be some placeholder because things have really went that wrong or will be some sort of giga Chad/Stacy.

[Spectator]

I doubt it, though they’re kind due for one. They probably would have done it in 2018 had they not nominated the guy under FBI investigation.

[Agonized-Statism]

That or DeSantis is followed by a more reined-in Republican like Suarez, who then loses to a Democrat in 2030. Things are getting bad in Florida though.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ie suppose Disney World actually moves out. It seems possible that a backlash could occur.

[2016]

The only way Florida Republicans lose the Governorship is if they nominate someone like Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Lt. Governor Nunez
AG Moody
and CFO Jimmy Patronis would all be heavy and I mean heavy Favourites in 2026.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The only way Florida Republicans lose the Governorship is if they nominate someone like Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Lt. Governor Nunez
AG Moody
and CFO Jimmy Patronis would all be heavy and I mean heavy Favourites in 2026.

Florida's politics are affected by constant changes in demography and who's moving into the state.  The Republican boost right now is due to (A) more conservative Northerners and retirees moving to a state that promises fewer taxes and regulations and (B) a Republican surge amongst Hispanic voters who are not supportive of the "Woke" agenda and who respond to the emphasis the GOP places on that.  This, of course, could change.  Miami's Cuban Republicans have always been somewhat more moderate than, say, Republicans in The Villages, and there could be an influx of new migrants that are more Democratic and liberal (e. g. young college grads seeking new jobs that are created as a result of population growth).  This is a state that was 61-39 for Bush over Dukakis in 1988 and 48-43 for Clinton in 1996.

[Del Tachi]

What're we thinking....Donalds vs Fried?

[Zedonathin2020]

Given the fact that it couldn't even flip in Blue Wave years such as 2006 and 2018, it'll probably be a LONG time before it flips again

Though to be fair if somebody like Matt Gaetz were nominated, and Trump is elected in 2024 and is just as unpopular as he was the first time around there could be a SLIVER of a chance it could happen.

[2016]

The only way Florida Republicans lose the Governorship is if they nominate someone like Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Lt. Governor Nunez
AG Moody
and CFO Jimmy Patronis would all be heavy and I mean heavy Favourites in 2026.

Florida's politics are affected by constant changes in demography and who's moving into the state.  The Republican boost right now is due to (A) more conservative Northerners and retirees moving to a state that promises fewer taxes and regulations and (B) a Republican surge amongst Hispanic voters who are not supportive of the "Woke" agenda and who respond to the emphasis the GOP places on that.  This, of course, could change.  Miami's Cuban Republicans have always been somewhat more moderate than, say, Republicans in The Villages, and there could be an influx of new migrants that are more Democratic and liberal (e. g. young college grads seeking new jobs that are created as a result of population growth).  This is a state that was 61-39 for Bush over Dukakis in 1988 and 48-43 for Clinton in 1996.

I think you are wrong on the "Woke" Agenda. A recent Florida Atlantic University showed that a plurality 47 to 43 are siding with DeSantis over Disney.

Florida won't be a competitive State in 2024 and 2026. Not even sure Biden will contest since they can win the Election with Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. All 3 will flip before Florida does.

The Democratic State Party is in complete shambles, have no Infrastructure, etc.

And if Biden does indeed win Re-Election FL-GOV 2026 starts as Likely Republican. I just cannot see Nunez, Moody or Patronis losing. Casey DeSantis is even more polular in FL than her husband so she might even contemplating running herself.

Florida has a habit electing fmr. News Anchors see Donna Deegan and Maria Elvira Salazar.

[Meatball Slayer]

No. Ashley Moody or Byron Donalds win by around 11pts.

[2016]

No. Ashley Moody or Byron Donalds win by around 11pts.

Donalds has no chance winning the States Republican Primary. My guess is that Nunez and Moody won't run against each other. If Moody runs Nunez will support her and if Nunez runs Moody will support her.

[Meatball Slayer]

No. Ashley Moody or Byron Donalds win by around 11pts.

Donalds has no chance winning the States Republican Primary. My guess is that Nunez and Moody won't run against each other. If Moody runs Nunez will support her and if Nunez runs Moody will support her.

No chance? That’s nonsensical. A Donalds v. Moody v. Nuñez primary is a pure tossup.

[jamestroll]

Probably Yes.

Then we will hear for two years how Democrats will FLIP Florida President in 2028, only to the see GOP win it by 10 points in 2028.

[President Johnson]

I honestly don't see it. Not even in a Trump midterm that turns into another 2010 or 2018 style blowout for the incumbent party.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Gaetz seems more and more likely to be the nominee. I think he could lose by 10 in a Trump midterm tbh at this point; with his sex trafficking scandal he could be as weak of a candidate as Roy Moore.

I wonder if the party competencies could soon flip in Florida, with Democrats being able to coalesce behind candidates like Mucarsel-Powell or Taddeo and the Republicans nominating Gaetz.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No.

Democrats could nominate a perfect candidate in every respect and Florida's demographics would still just be too much to overcome.

Matt Gaetz will be the next Governor.

[2016]

No.

Democrats could nominate a perfect candidate in every respect and Florida's demographics would still just be too much to overcome.

Matt Gaetz will be the next Governor.

Gaetz will never be the Republican Nominee. The other 19 Republicans from Florida in the House all voted to keep McCarthy in Office.

Gaetz would lose very badly to Nunez, Moody or Patronis in a H2H Match-Up!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No.

Democrats could nominate a perfect candidate in every respect and Florida's demographics would still just be too much to overcome.

Matt Gaetz will be the next Governor.

According to Split Ticket, Gaetz had a War Score of D +10 in 2022 (idk how accurate the model is as I don't agree with a lot of the scores), and that's against Rebekah Jones, one of the worst candidates Democrats could pick up. Gaetz has likely only gotten weaker since then, and is under investigation for sex trafficking. If this translates statewide, it's probably a Democratic win.

[Spectator]

No.

Democrats could nominate a perfect candidate in every respect and Florida's demographics would still just be too much to overcome.

Matt Gaetz will be the next Governor.

According to Split Ticket, Gaetz had a War Score of D +10 in 2022 (idk how accurate the model is as I don't agree with a lot of the scores), and that's against Rebekah Jones, one of the worst candidates Democrats could pick up. Gaetz has likely only gotten weaker since then, and is under investigation for sex trafficking. If this translates statewide, it's probably a Democratic win.

He did do about 3 points worse than Trump in 2020, and that’s before a lot of the really bad stuff came out.