West African Crisis

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A good relevant question here which Red Velvet completely bypasses is are there any examples of African coups that actually ended up good for the country?

Well there are a few examples, Mali had one led by Amadou Toumani Touré which later led to democratic elections that he ran in and won fairly, Mauritania had one in 2005 which ousted the previous dictator and promised to establish a constitution and democratic elections in two years before ceding power, and in a rather shocking twist, the junta actually kept their word and did exactly that and voluntarily ceded power, although a later coup toppled the democratic government. Ghana had one in the 70s were disgruntled elements of the military overthrew and executed the previous military dictator and replaced it with a new junta that at least worked on bettering the country and then also gave way to democracy (and Ghana has actually been a pretty solid democratic country since then with only peaceful transfers of power.)

However I think it's pretty obvious that this is not comparable to those.

[The Mikado]

What are “revolutions” other than coups that people approve of because they consider them morally good or valid? Wasn’t Euromaidan a good revolution because people liked Ukrainians sticking up to their “oppressors” in Russia?

Honestly, it is not that complicated. In general terms, anti-democratic coups or revolutions are bad. And in general terms, pro-democratic revolutions such as Maidan (not so much coups because it is hard to think of any examples of pro-democratic coups) are good.

_{And I should actually also point out that it is pretty misleading to think of Maidan as even a revolution. In reality it was just a political crisis in which the duly elected legislature passed some constitutional amendments and was set to impeach the President, following the then-existing legal constitutional procedures to pass amendments and to impeach the President. It is basically what would have happened in the USA if when Nixon was going to be impeached, he had refused to resign and instead had preferred to flee to the Soviet Union or something crazy like that.}

Does this mean this mean that all dictators are bad and that democracy is always better than dictatorships? No, not necessarily. At least in theory, and probably also in reality if we wanted to sift through many pages of history looking for exceptions, there is such a wise and benevolent dictator.

But nevertheless, a bad democratically elected leader is preferable to a good dictator. The reason for that is that a democratically elected leader is temporary, while a dictatorship is forever (unless overthrown).

If there is a bad democratically elected leader, the people who think the leader is bad can vote the bad leader out in the next election. Not so with a dictator. Even if the dictator happens currently to be benevolent and wise, there is no guarantee that this will remain the case forever. When some new unanticipated circumstances or events come up, the dictator may not deal benevolently then. And if nothing else, eventually the dictator will die, and the new dictator is unlikely to be as benevolent.

Worth pointing out Yanukovich probably wins Maidan A. if he hadn't had his goons shoot random protesters in the street and B. hadn't fled the country. You leave the country you lose the right to rule, it's a sort of assumed rule that all of these situations fall under. If Alexander Lukashenko had left the country in the 2020 Belarus crisis, he'd have lost. He stayed, risked death if the revolt won, and succeeded in putting it down and arresting/killing/exiling his critics. You can either stay like Lukashenko did and gamble that you can win or forfeit like Yanukovich did and leave the country and basically recognize that the opposition was right and you've lost all legitimate right to rule.

I don't want this to sound at all like I'm praising Lukashenko, but you've gotta admit: potato man has balls.

[HillGoose]

Now that the deadline has passed is there any chance any ECOWAS states still go ahead with the intervention?

It would be great to see the US and France step the hell up too, stop being pussies, and get together a Coalition of the Willing to defend life & liberty in the Sahel.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Now that the deadline has passed is there any chance any ECOWAS states still go ahead with the intervention?

The junta seems to still think it's possible.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Today, humility to Russian flags in Africa is the same thing as humility to flags of the Third Reich in Africa in the early forties.

If Wagner really is as singularly comparable to the Third Reich as you claim, then they will get kicked out. Probably.
Wagner, unlike what it would want you, me, and the wider world to believe, is not the most important moving part here.

It is Russia that looks like the Third Reich. Not Wagner. Wagner is similar to the Schutzstaffel in many aspects. Therefore, it is required to investigate the activities of Wagner, and not to turn a blind eye to youself and others to its existence.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Today, humility to Russian flags in Africa is the same thing as humility to flags of the Third Reich in Africa in the early forties.

If Wagner really is as singularly comparable to the Third Reich as you claim, then they will get kicked out. Probably.
Wagner, unlike what it would want you, me, and the wider world to believe, is not the most important moving part here.

It is Russia that looks like the Third Reich. Not Wagner. Wagner is similar to the Schutzstaffel in many aspects. Therefore, it is required to investigate the activities of Wagner, and not to turn a blind eye to youself and others to its existence.

Well, I certainly strongly agree Wagner/Russia's activities should get some attention. But I wouldn't give them the "honor" of being the key moving part here, just yet. They have not yet shown they are singularly strong enough to fill the role. At the moment I would sooner place them as a key driver of tensions, but not so determinative that they go that far.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Al-Qaeda vs. Wagner....truly a "let them fight" moment, I guess?

https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1688284511962877952?s=20

Will it be the same as with the Kadyrovites, who went to punish Wagner, but got stuck in a traffic jam?

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1688299731934412801?s=20

He actually said Central Africa, not West Africa which is pretty bizarre since I can't see any central african country being involved in this. The only two countries in that region which could send and army there (due to proximity and miltary strength) are Tchad and Cameroon and there's exactly 0% chance of that happening for many reasons.

Assuming he was mistaken and actually meant "West Africa" as written in the tweet, then it would be interesting to know which two countries he's talking about (if he's telling the truth). Ivory Coast and Senegal are the most likely to support military intervention at this moment, but Nigeria and Benin make more logistical sense.

[Jerseyan]

Oddly enough, it seems like the Coup Leaders in Niger want a continued American presence in the country, both militarily and financially.

I wonder if there's calculations going on in Washington about whether a Pro-American(or at least neutral) Junta might not be worth displacing. There's certainly a reason the USA hasn't actually taken steps to declare a coup has even happened in the first place.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I wonder if there's calculations going on in Washington about whether a Pro-American(or at least neutral) Junta might not be worth displacing. There's certainly a reason the USA hasn't actually taken steps to declare a coup has even happened in the first place.

Ah, the Egypt 2013 strategy.

[Jerseyan]

On the other hand;

“French military planners are consulting with ECOWAS right now,” one U.S. official said. According to American officials familiar with the discussions during the Monday meeting with Barmou, he told the U.S. delegation that the junta believes the threat of an ECOWAS military intervention is very real and they believe that if ECOWAS intervenes militarily they will do so by the end of August, with support from France.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/coup-leaders-niger-grow-increasingly-defiant-us-pressure-rcna98915

[Cassius]

Oddly enough, it seems like the Coup Leaders in Niger want a continued American presence in the country, both militarily and financially.

I wonder if there's calculations going on in Washington about whether a Pro-American(or at least neutral) Junta might not be worth displacing. There's certainly a reason the USA hasn't actually taken steps to declare a coup has even happened in the first place.

Not surprising, given that the continued presence of American troops (who could get caught in the crossfire of a military intervention) would be a sure way to get ECOWAS and the French to back off.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The US government also wants a continued presence in the country, for counter-terrorism reasons.

[AAPSO]

Western (US/French) forces in the Sahel have been so ineffective at combating jihadist activity (which is linked to the fallout from regime change in Libya, by the way) that many believe they actually want it to remain in place in a controlled fashion as a means of coercion. That's a big reason why there has been substantial public support for these coups and for Wagner's presence.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Western (US/French) forces in the Sahel have been so ineffective at combating jihadist activity (which is linked to the fallout from regime change in Libya, by the way) that many believe they actually want it to remain in place in a controlled fashion as a means of coercion. That's a big reason why there has been substantial public support for these coups and for Wagner's presence.

Oh yes of course. NATO, which is fighting intensively against ISIS and defeated al-Qaeda, is in the same bowl with jihadists, and the real enemy of jihadists is Russia, which is friends with the Taliban and Shiite Islamists, has its own jihadists in the North Caucasus, has its own terrorist neo-Nazi organization, and also preferred to fight in Syria against the opposition, not ISIS. You know exactly who you can rely on.

No wonder Compucomp recommended your post.

[PSOL]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

You have to be more concerned about the budget of your PRC, which is flooding Africa with USD billions for publicly unknown purposes.

[PSOL]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

I was pointing out the sort of greek tragedy of it all where, in creating monstrous periods of human suffering, great powers kneecap themselves in such fashion.

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

You have to be more concerned about the budget of your PRC, which is flooding Africa with USD billions for publicly unknown purposes.

They are quite open about the cash being a mixture of infrastructure spending, investment, and bribery. What is even more funny is that these deals are much better than anything the European powers, World Bank, IMF, and the USA especially are offering which is tantamount to forceful loansharking comparatively.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

I was pointing out the sort of greek tragedy of it all where, in creating monstrous periods of human suffering, great powers kneecap themselves in such fashion.

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

You have to be more concerned about the budget of your PRC, which is flooding Africa with USD billions for publicly unknown purposes.

They are quite open about the cash being a mixture of infrastructure spending, investment, and bribery. What is even more funny is that these deals are much better than anything the European powers, World Bank, IMF, and the USA especially are offering which is tantamount to forceful loansharking comparatively.

Normally most people don’t call greek tragedies “blessings”

[AAPSO]

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

You, like all labor aristocrats, hurt Africans simply by existing. So save it.

[Zinneke]

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

You, like all labor aristocrats, hurt Africans simply by existing. So save it.

You hurt this forum by existing.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

You, like all labor aristocrats, hurt Africans simply by existing. So save it.

Wow, Lenin's concept. In our time it's difficult to meet Marxists who would be so well versed in the theory of Marxism. Modern Marxists usually say something along of "You should work harder to get richer, not whine."

My regards.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

You, like all labor aristocrats, hurt Africans simply by existing. So save it.

F—————k off.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Aside from the GreyZone-level indifference toward/celebration of suffering as long as it “owns the West” I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here, it’s frankly incoherent.