If he remained in Pennsylvania and first ran in 2018, as he did in Florida in OTL? He'd have almost certainly lost, given the national environment of the cycle, but wouldn't have done as poorly as Wagner, given he'd be more experienced (assuming he would still be a Representative before running for Governor) and 2018 DeSantis had a significantly more 'moderate' platform and public persona than 2022 DeSantis.
If he remained in Pennsylvania and waited until 2022 to run? I'd expect him to perform similarly to Oz, but I can't see him getting any closer to defeating Shapiro than that, given that one of the biggest trends in competitive races last year was that non-incumbent 'hard-right' GOP candidates significantly underperformed the expectations of a 'red wave' — get rid of DeSantis' incumbency, move him to a Tilt D state instead of a Likely R one, and put him against an above-average candidate as opposed to Charlie Fxxxin' Crist, and he'd have likely fallen victim to that trend.
As a resident of Pennsylvania, I can confirm that this is accurate.
