Most vulnerable incumbent House Democrat

[Roll Roons]

All of these people have at least one of the following risk factors:
-Holds a Trump district
-Won by less than 3% in 2022
-Is in a NC/OH seat that could get blown up

[Spectator]

One of the North Carolina people by default. Ohio at least has the potential of not getting redrawn. The five Trump district Democrats are all varying degrees of favored under the current maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wiley Nickel. Jackson can at least run against Adams or succeed her if she retires, whereas both Ross and Foushee would be favored in any double-bunking primary with Nickel. And there’s a remote possibility of NC-06 staying intact that isn’t really there for 13 or 14.

I don’t think any of the Democrats running for re-election in non-redrawn seats are underdogs as of now.

[GALeftist]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

[wesmoorenerd]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

[Mr.Phips]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

There is also a chance that Biden improves enough in PA to carry Cartwright’s district.  He’ll be fine if that is the case.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Probably Manning.  Nickel and her are both at the highest-risk, but if Manning gets drawn out then she is probably finished and looks to be a weak incumbent if 2022 is anything to go by.  Nickel is a strong campaigner who is more likely than Manning to face a dumpster fire grade opponent and has more paths to remain in politics (ex: running for AG if Jackson doesn’t do so, which is quite possible), so I broke the tie in his favor.  

Plus, while both will likely need a miracle to survive in whatever district they’re drawn into, I think (for a variety of reasons*) that Nickel is much more likely than Manning to get the perfect storm he’d need.  That said, the odds either winning are pretty minuscule imo.

*Not the least of which is Bo Hines running again, a man who I could easily see blowing a race he has no business losing.

[progressive85]

Poor Wiley.  He's got the best name in Congress 

[Spectator]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No D will lose in a narrow H majority but if it's a blue wave 222 or 230 DH they will lose but we have the vulnerable 5 Rs Garcia, Boebert. Kean, Lawler and Santos

I can see Riley in NC losing if we get 220 seats or more but definitely not in a 218/217 DH

Most of the pundits have declared a 223DH 51/49 DS AZ, OH, MT, TX and Biden winning 303/111 EC votes

[wesmoorenerd]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

I'm not confident that those symbolic votes actually matter. Golden was an A-list recruit and two-term state rep tailor-made for his district even before running for the House. I'm not convinced MGP, who was a bit of a no-name candidate and whose election felt far flukier, genuinely has the same bona fides. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

MGP probably won't outperform the top of the ticket by as much as Golden does; Maine probably has a bigger ticket splitting tradition in general.

Kent isn't a super weak candidate either. Her district is just not that red. Kent probably wins if Trump can win her district by 5.

[wbrocks67]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

I'm not confident that those symbolic votes actually matter. Golden was an A-list recruit and two-term state rep tailor-made for his district even before running for the House. I'm not convinced MGP, who was a bit of a no-name candidate and whose election felt far flukier, genuinely has the same bona fides. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

[wesmoorenerd]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

I'm not confident that those symbolic votes actually matter. Golden was an A-list recruit and two-term state rep tailor-made for his district even before running for the House. I'm not convinced MGP, who was a bit of a no-name candidate and whose election felt far flukier, genuinely has the same bona fides. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

I mean, we'll see next year. If she manages to build on her margin, I'll concede that she has the X factor. If not...

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

She won because her district just isn't that red. Trump only won it by about 4-5 points in 2020, when everyone seems to be acting like it's Trump +20.

[Roll Roons]

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

She won because her district just isn't that red. Trump only won it by about 4-5 points in 2020, when everyone seems to be acting like it's Trump +20.

JHB was a consistent overperformer so people thought the district was redder than it actually is. There was also a long-standing midterm pattern where parties never won an open seat that was carried by the other party's presidential nominee in the most recent presidential election.

[Spectator]

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

MGP probably won't outperform the top of the ticket by as much as Golden does; Maine probably has a bigger ticket splitting tradition in general.

Kent isn't a super weak candidate either. Her district is just not that red. Kent probably wins if Trump can win her district by 5.

Frankly she doesn’t need the same amount of crossover support as Jared Golden has. If she gets just a third of it she wins.

Also Joe Kent is extremely weak. WA-03 went red in the Senate race by 8 points and he still lost.

[Vosem]

Throwing out the redistricting casualties, either Marie Perez (seems like a solid member of Congress, but the initial win was clearly flukish and elections after an incumbent gets primaried often have a large backlash) or Susan Wild (under current boundaries she would've lost in 2020 and only barely won in 2022, and both of those were against a really flawed opponent).

The most doomed North Carolinian is Manning, where I think absolutely no path exists at all. Jackson could at least try to contest a Charlotte vote-sink, Nickel will probably get a seat that's trending left even if it's still quite red, and Davis will probably not get something impossible (most suggestions I've seen have a Biden seat, albeit a notionally-R-in-2022 Biden seat). I don't think Manning will get a path forward at all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

I'm not confident that those symbolic votes actually matter. Golden was an A-list recruit and two-term state rep tailor-made for his district even before running for the House. I'm not convinced MGP, who was a bit of a no-name candidate and whose election felt far flukier, genuinely has the same bona fides. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

I don't know if it was a fluke or not, but a lot of the same people saying Perez was a good candidate say DeRemer only won because of a bad Dem candidate. I think its fair to say that both Kent and McLeod-Skinner were rather weak fits for the district, and the true test for both incumbents will come in 2024. I would say Trump+4 and Biden+8 seats are roughly the same politically if you assume the median house seat to be Biden+2.

[BigZuck08]

Either Wiley Nickel or Marie Perez, but I slightly lean towards Nickel.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

I'm not confident that those symbolic votes actually matter. Golden was an A-list recruit and two-term state rep tailor-made for his district even before running for the House. I'm not convinced MGP, who was a bit of a no-name candidate and whose election felt far flukier, genuinely has the same bona fides. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

I don't know if it was a fluke or not, but a lot of the same people saying Perez was a good candidate say DeRemer only won because of a bad Dem candidate. I think its fair to say that both Kent and McLeod-Skinner were rather weak fits for the district, and the true test for both incumbents will come in 2024. I would say Trump+4 and Biden+8 seats are roughly the same politically if you assume the median house seat to be Biden+2.

You're making the assumption that despite the median house seat being Biden +2, republicans are favored in half the seats which is unfounded.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

I'm not confident that those symbolic votes actually matter. Golden was an A-list recruit and two-term state rep tailor-made for his district even before running for the House. I'm not convinced MGP, who was a bit of a no-name candidate and whose election felt far flukier, genuinely has the same bona fides. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.

Why do people assume it was a fluke? Maybe she actually ended up winning because she ... was a great candidate for that district!

I don't know if it was a fluke or not, but a lot of the same people saying Perez was a good candidate say DeRemer only won because of a bad Dem candidate. I think its fair to say that both Kent and McLeod-Skinner were rather weak fits for the district, and the true test for both incumbents will come in 2024. I would say Trump+4 and Biden+8 seats are roughly the same politically if you assume the median house seat to be Biden+2.

You're making the assumption that despite the median house seat being Biden +2, republicans are favored in half the seats which is unfounded.

Assuming Trump is the nominee, the house GOP has performed better than expected in the house races. Dems gained less seats than expected in 2016 and then ended up losing 13 seats in 2020 because Trump is such a unique figure that the generic R house Republican is able to rebrand themselves in a more palatable way to suburbanites by just being "normal". Also Biden+2 isn't even that lethal to a Republican candidate much less an incumbent. I would say you have to reach Biden+5 or greater to when they are in serious trouble.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With redistricting being factored in: Nickel.

If I were to somehow assume all districts remain the same from 2022 to 2024: Gluesenkamp-Perez.