Good way to think about 2024 Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Basically Democrats have to win at least 2 Senate races in Trump 2020 states to win the Senate.

The general consensus is that in order to have any shot of winning the Senate, Democrats will have to win all Senate seats in Biden 2020 states. Currently, it seems like all of those races are lean D or tossup at worst. And I think most would agree if Dems are losing a Senate race in a Biden 2020 state, they are not competitive for Senate control (Barring some very extreme unforeseen event). So they have to win at least 2 of the following:

Florida (Trump + 3.36)
Texas (+5.58)
Ohio (+8.03)
Missouri (+15.39)
Indiana (+16.07)
Montana (+16.37)
Mississippi (+16.55)
Nebraska (+19.06)
Utah (+20.48)
Tennessee (+23.21)
North Dakota (+33.34)
West Virgnia (+38.93)
Wyoming (+43.38)

By this logic one would expect Dems easiest path to winning the Senate in 2024 being to lose OH, MT, and WV while gaining FL and TX.

In practice though, people no longer see FL as competitive, so Dems path to a Senate majority feels a lot less tangible.

One thing I am almost 100% sure of is that TX is a *must-win* for Democrats to win the Senate in 2024. It's all the Biden seats, Texas, and something else. That final seat is probably going to be one of FL, OH, or MT unless something really weird happens.

[President Johnson]

The most realistic shot is just that only West Virginia flips while Brown and Tester get reelected. Texas is just a distinct possibility.

[Spectator]

I have long felt that Texas is a must-win for Democrats if they want to retain the Senate. People saying otherwise I think are putting almost too much weight on incumbency. I don’t really see a world where Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown win again in which Ted Cruz still wins.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The most realistic shot is just that only West Virginia flips while Brown and Tester get reelected. Texas is just a distinct possibility.

Consider Texas is very likely to vote to the left oh both OH and MT for Pres in 2024, perhaps by quite a bit, and Ted Cruz is not particularly popular, and Dems have 2 solid recruits. I think believing both OH and MT are the path puts too much weight on incumbency in a Pres year. In 2018, Montana's electorate was extremely favorable to Tester and he almost would've certainly lost in 2020 even if he retained the crossover support just because the electorate was much redder.

At least in the case of Ohio, the state could be somewhat close Presidentially on a good night for Dems, and it's not that hard to see a scenario where Brown outruns Biden by like 2-3 points enough to snatch a win. I still believe there's a small chance Biden could win Ohio, but def wouldn't count on it. Ryan's 2022 performance was pretty impressive, especially if you consider the fact black turnout was abnormally low because it was a midterm.

[Sir Mohamed]

The most realistic shot is just that only West Virginia flips while Brown and Tester get reelected. Texas is just a distinct possibility.

Yup, though TX isn't off the table. I'd say if Biden wins the presidential election, even without the state, Cruz could still very well lose. A flip in TX for sure is way, way likelier than Manchin keeping his seat though.

[S019]

This has been my take for a while, and I would actually say I see FL as easier than MT/OH. I think people are really overestimating several things:

1. The degree to which FL will swing right (no it likely won't become R+10 overnight with some actual semblance of D effort in the state)
2. The degree to which incumbency matters (Sure it matters but not enough that an R+15 state is going to be a way easier lift than an R+3 one), on a related note people seem to be assuming that these incumbents will remain very popular during the campaign, and this may be true, but it may not be, we need to see how effective the campaigns are.
3. The degree to which OH/MT will swing left (So I have seen a lot of takes, I don't know if they are or aren't ironic that OH/MT will swing sizably left because of Dobbs. I'm skeptical of this for a number of reasons, the first is that these people voted for Trump in 2016 knowing that the Supreme Court was on the line, maybe you can say nobody truly believed it would happen, maybe that is true, but it doesn't explain it fully. To elaborate on the previous point, OH is having a referendum on the issue in 2023, which means it will likely take on at least somewhat reduced salience there. MT has been a Republican state for a long-time, so I don't really buy that there is going to be a big Democratic swing there in backlash to what has been a Republican Party policy for almost 3 decades now.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

This has been my take for a while, and I would actually say I see FL as easier than MT/OH. I think people are really overestimating several things:

1. The degree to which FL will swing right (no it likely won't become R+10 overnight with some actual semblance of D effort in the state)
2. The degree to which incumbency matters (Sure it matters but not enough that an R+15 state is going to be a way easier lift than an R+3 one), on a related note people seem to be assuming that these incumbents will remain very popular during the campaign, and this may be true, but it may not be, we need to see how effective the campaigns are.
3. The degree to which OH/MT will swing left (So I have seen a lot of takes, I don't know if they are or aren't ironic that OH/MT will swing sizably left because of Dobbs. I'm skeptical of this for a number of reasons, the first is that these people voted for Trump in 2016 knowing that the Supreme Court was on the line, maybe you can say nobody truly believed it would happen, maybe that is true, but it doesn't explain it fully. To elaborate on the previous point, OH is having a referendum on the issue in 2023, which means it will likely take on at least somewhat reduced salience there. MT has been a Republican state for a long-time, so I don't really buy that there is going to be a big Democratic swing there in backlash to what has been a Republican Party policy for almost 3 decades now.)

Ye I agree, though it’s not impossible FL votes to the right of OH in 2024 Presidentially.

I think the issue with FL is it’s just such an expensive state to invest in and Dems have been burned so many times before, convincing them it’s a good investment will be hard. It’s also no longer really necessary or even helpful towards Dems winning the EC. The thing is if Ds have a good candidate in FL and Scott ends up being unlikeable, it’s def possible that even if Biden loses FL by a simillar margin to last time, Ds could still sneak a win in the Senate race.

Ohio while it voted redder in 2020 has a bit less of brutal trends for Dems (they suffered the vast majority of their losses already in 2016) and it’s just less expensive. Plus Ryan performed decent in 2022; 2024 is probably going to be a more D favorable environment and black turnout won’t be as abysmal in a Pres cycle.