Polling generally underestimates Republicans in red states and Democrats in blue states. However, in Tennessee's top-of-the-ticket races, such polling errors are particularly pronounced, and they often give the illusion of competitive races (when the state is not remotely competitive on any level).
- In 2016, polling indicated that Trump would win Tennessee by 9%. He won by 26%. (Source:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov08.html)
- In 2018, polling indicated that Blackburn would win Tennessee by 5%. She won by 11%. This polling error is not as atrocious as the ones for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections, but it still gave the false impression that Tennessee would be competitive. (Source:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Nov06.html)
- In 2020, polling indicated that Trump would win Tennessee by 9%. He won by 23%. (Source:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Nov03.html)
Polling often gives people the impression that Tennessee would be a single-digit (i.e. competitive) state, but it always votes for Republicans by double digits—often by a margin 20% or more.
What explains this discrepancy? What specifically makes Tennessee so difficult to poll accurately? Why are polling discrepancies in Tennessee so much worse than in other red states?
