1968: Eugene McCarthy/RFK vs George Romney/Ronald Reagan after 8 years of Nixon

[Rose of Lemons]

Nixon wins in 1960, and takes a moderate approach on civil rights, passing a few limited bills and touting it as a victory for the country. In 1964, LBJ tries to outflank him with Humphrey as his vp, but is unable to win due to George Wallace splitting the dems in the upper south and handing Nixon a victory.

With the Vietnam War still going on in 1968, and a civil rights act without titles II and VII and a voting rights act without the "majority minority districts" passed due to Goldwater working behind closed doors, the Dems go all in on being anti war
and staunchly pro civil rights with Eugene McCarthy and RFK, who in this timeline is not shot.

Who wins?

[Agonized-Statism]

Governor George Romney (R-MI) / Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN) / Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY) ✓
Fmr. Governor George Wallace (AIP-AL) / Congressman Bob Sikes (AIP-FL)

Vietnam would be pretty damning for Nixon's successor, and Romney wasn't a great campaigner. McCarthy is ultimately saved by Western Hispanics who Kennedy continues his brother's 1960 outreach to. Wallace runs again, and while there's a play for the South by Republicans, it's less successful than OTL Nixon's with the growing institutional strength of Wallace's party.

[Sir Mohamed]

A scenario with a switched Dem ticket - RFK on top - is more plausible. That said, McCarthy still wins election after 16 years of GOP reign. Wallace runs for prez again as the Deep South wouldn't have voted for either of the 2 major party candidates.



✓ Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)/Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY): 309 EVs.; 47.5%
Governor George Romney (R-MI)/Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA): 165 EVs.; 40.3%
Former Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA): 64 EVs.; 12.1%

[Fuzzy Bear]

There's no way you could guess such a scenario because:

1.  Without being elected President, Senator John F. Kennedy would likely have been alive and in office.

2.  Without LBJ, our involvement in Vietnam may not have gotten to the level it did.

3.  Without a President Kennedy, RFK would have been a nobody, relatively speaking.

4.  Without a Democratic President responsible for Vietnam, Eugene McCarthy would have been a backbencher.

5.  If a President Richard Nixon had conducted the Vietnam War more successfully than LBJ did, it's quite possible that Henry Cabot Lodge would have been the 1968 GOP candidate, with the kind of "Ready On Day One" appeal that Bush 41 had.

6.  I know people who knew Gene McCarthy personally, and they've given me enough feedback for me to believe that RFK would NEVER have taken 2nd fiddle to a guy like McCarthy. 

Circumstances made the men in these situations, and that applies far more to the Democrats mentioned here.  It also applies somewhat to Reagan, who ran as a backlash candidate which would not have been as in demand if the war was going well, or if there were no war and the campuses quiet.  It is also possible that Nixon would have signed the Civil Rights Bill of 1964 into law.  The parties were quite different, and Nixon, under those circumstances, could have made the GOP the Civil Rights Party.  There would have been no Goldwater sweeping the South in 1964 under this scenario.