Iowa - Fox - Trump +30

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1683102115990732801?t=Sr8TYMJumJqgxEvvY2JWu...

[Spectator]

Probably Trump’s single best poll. If he wins Iowa, it’s over before it starts.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

It's a debate-qualifying poll:

Conducted July 15-19, 2023 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews among 806 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers who were randomly selected from the Iowa voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones.

https://static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2023/07/Fox_July-15-19-2023_Iowa_R_Caucus_Cross-Tabs_July-23-Release.pdf

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I really don't see what could meaningfully move Trump's numbers downward in this race, which is why the only interesting question right now is how badly does conservative Beltway media golden boy DeSantis end up flopping when the votes are counted.

[indietraveler]

Time is really running out for ONE Trump alternative to emerge in Iowa.

I'd guess the field probably has until Thanksgiving or so (and that feels generous) to really chip away at Trump's lead. Obviously it's not that someone couldn't come from behind after that time, but if you look at recent Iowa history a lot of times the ones who surge towards the end at one point had some hype before the holidays even if it had faded for a few months prior to that. The flailing Rob is the only one who has made a blip.

Agreed if Trump wins Iowa it's essentially over.

[Epaminondas]

the only interesting question right now is how badly does conservative Beltway media golden boy DeSantis end up flopping when the votes are counted.

https://nypost.com/2023/05/16/dont-write-off-desantis-hes-about-to-come-out-swinging/

After DeSantis comes fifth in Iowa, the schadenfreude while re-reading articles like this one will veer on the orgasmic.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DeSantis might come 3rd in Iowa, 3rd in New Hampshire and 4th in South Carolina lol.

[Lief 🗽]

Time is really running out for ONE Trump alternative to emerge in Iowa.

I'd guess the field probably has until Thanksgiving or so (and that feels generous) to really chip away at Trump's lead. Obviously it's not that someone couldn't come from behind after that time, but if you look at recent Iowa history a lot of times the ones who surge towards the end at one point had some hype before the holidays even if it had faded for a few months prior to that. The flailing Rob is the only one who has made a blip.

Agreed if Trump wins Iowa it's essentially over.

Absolutely not, no. You can ignore Iowa polls until about a week before the caucus. They love making a last minute decision.

[indietraveler]

Time is really running out for ONE Trump alternative to emerge in Iowa.

I'd guess the field probably has until Thanksgiving or so (and that feels generous) to really chip away at Trump's lead. Obviously it's not that someone couldn't come from behind after that time, but if you look at recent Iowa history a lot of times the ones who surge towards the end at one point had some hype before the holidays even if it had faded for a few months prior to that. The flailing Rob is the only one who has made a blip.

Agreed if Trump wins Iowa it's essentially over.

Absolutely not, no. You can ignore Iowa polls until about a week before the caucus. They love making a last minute decision.

Eh, not really. If you look at polling over a period of time and think more of trend lines you can mostly see stuff coming. Placement of who finishes first, second, third, etc. is harder to predict because you always have the widest field at this point so you can hop a few places compared to polling due to MOE and field size.

[Lief 🗽]

Time is really running out for ONE Trump alternative to emerge in Iowa.

I'd guess the field probably has until Thanksgiving or so (and that feels generous) to really chip away at Trump's lead. Obviously it's not that someone couldn't come from behind after that time, but if you look at recent Iowa history a lot of times the ones who surge towards the end at one point had some hype before the holidays even if it had faded for a few months prior to that. The flailing Rob is the only one who has made a blip.

Agreed if Trump wins Iowa it's essentially over.

Absolutely not, no. You can ignore Iowa polls until about a week before the caucus. They love making a last minute decision.

Eh, not really. If you look at polling over a period of time and think more of trend lines you can mostly see stuff coming. Placement of who finishes first, second, third, etc. is harder to predict because you always have the widest field at this point so you can hop a few places compared to polling due to MOE and field size.

Here's how the eventual caucus winner was polling in late July before the caucus:

2020: 7%, 5th place
2016(R): 7%, 7th place
2016(D): 55%, 1st place*
2012: 4%, 6th place
2008(D): 17%, 3rd place
2008(R): 4%, 5th place

2016 is the outlier, for obvious reasons, but that year may be an even more worrying example for Trump. Clinton never exceeded the ceiling she had in the summer and Sanders consolidated 100% of the anti-Clinton vote. Clinton started off about 10 points better than Trump though.

[indietraveler]

Time is really running out for ONE Trump alternative to emerge in Iowa.

I'd guess the field probably has until Thanksgiving or so (and that feels generous) to really chip away at Trump's lead. Obviously it's not that someone couldn't come from behind after that time, but if you look at recent Iowa history a lot of times the ones who surge towards the end at one point had some hype before the holidays even if it had faded for a few months prior to that. The flailing Rob is the only one who has made a blip.

Agreed if Trump wins Iowa it's essentially over.

Absolutely not, no. You can ignore Iowa polls until about a week before the caucus. They love making a last minute decision.

Eh, not really. If you look at polling over a period of time and think more of trend lines you can mostly see stuff coming. Placement of who finishes first, second, third, etc. is harder to predict because you always have the widest field at this point so you can hop a few places compared to polling due to MOE and field size.

Here's how the eventual caucus winner was polling in late July before the caucus:

2020: 7%, 5th place
2016(R): 7%, 7th place
2016(D): 55%, 1st place*
2012: 4%, 6th place
2008(D): 17%, 3rd place
2008(R): 4%, 5th place

2016 is the outlier, for obvious reasons, but that year may be an even more worrying example for Trump. Clinton never exceeded the ceiling she had in the summer and Sanders consolidated 100% of the anti-Clinton vote. Clinton started off about 10 points better than Trump though.

I should have reworded my initial statement but I also disagree with the sentiment to ignore the polls until the week before. I can't think of any recent examples where someone was polling well behind the pack in single digits the week-to-month before and suddenly won a majority of the undecideds to come out on top.

Clinton vs. Sanders isn't a good comparison for obvious reasons of that field being a lot smaller, and even then, Sanders was building up for months and months so the result wasn't shocking.

In essence what I was trying to get at is Trump has an obvious huge lead at this point and its not likely it will just evaporate in the final few weeks leading up to the caucus if we're still seeing the same polling margins. And I think the next 4 months will be revealing if we're consistently seeing the same polling results over and over again.