Henry County, GA

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

According to Ryan Brune, the county only moves one direction. Henry saw the biggest leftward shift from 2016 to 2020, yet Raffensperger and Kemp both did worse than Trump 2020 despite massively outperforming him statewide.

How will Henry vote in future elections? Will it keep shifting at this rate until it becomes DeKalb? It seems like Henry is about 5 years behind Rockdale, which is already pretty close to DeKalb in voting patterns.

[Roll Roons]

Henry’s shift is almost entirely because of demographics, so it depends on whether or not it continues to become blacker or whether its demographic shift slows down.

It’s also only 28% college educated, several points below the statewide and national averages. For comparison, DeKalb is 46%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'd be surprised to see the county get 80% Dem. It would have to stop sometime before it reaches that level, right?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Henry County's shifts have almost zero to do with the swings in places like Cobb or Forsyth Counties.  In the latter, examples, much (though not all) of the shifts are due to persuasion.  That leads to more split-ticket voting (an example would be Kemp and Raffensperger keeping Cobb County very close).  On the other hand, Henry's shift is almost purely about changing demographics.  Unless that demographic shift changes or urban black voters start to get less Democratic, Henry's trends will continue.  I'm much more uncertain on what happens in the Northern Atlanta suburbs long-term.

[Devils30]

Henry County's shifts have almost zero to do with the swings in places like Cobb or Forsyth Counties.  In the latter, examples, much (though not all) of the shifts are due to persuasion.  That leads to more split-ticket voting (an example would be Kemp and Raffensperger keeping Cobb County very close).  On the other hand, Henry's shift is almost purely about changing demographics.  Unless that demographic shift changes or urban black voters start to get less Democratic, Henry's trends will continue.  I'm much more uncertain on what happens in the Northern Atlanta suburbs long-term.

The demographic shifts are terrible for the GOP and it is growing. Would not be shocked at all if Biden wins here 68-30.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

A friend of mine in Henry county told me whenever a white home moves out blacks move in. Henry has nowhere near the upper income people that Cobb does so it will slowly move more and more democrat.  Trump was good at getting mediocre income white whipped up to vote for him....that's why he beat Brad and Kemp.

[Roronoa D. Law]

A friend of mine in Henry county told me whenever a white home moves out blacks move in. Henry has nowhere near the upper income people that Cobb does so it will slowly move more and more democrat.  Trump was good at getting mediocre income white whipped up to vote for him....that's why he beat Brad and Kemp.

And that is true. Henry never had the educated white population you find in the Cobb or North Fulton. It always been enclave for working to middle class white families that couldn't afford to live in an East Cobb or Roswell but also didn't want to live in the mult-ethnic communities in Dekalb or Clayton. The influx in Henry should still favor Democrats because the Metro area as whole is still a major desination for black people. Henry and the rest of counties under I-20 offer more affordable housing for the same distance or closer to the city.