It is 2000 Election Night Eve. Given what you would have known back then, predict the outcome.

[WalterWhite]

POLLING AVERAGES IN BATTLEGROUNDS (Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20001024053318/http://www.realclearpolitics.com:80/Polls/polls-Critical_States.html):

Arkansas: Gore (D)+2%
California: Gore (D)+6%
Delaware: Gore (D)+2%
Florida Bush (R)+1%
Illinois: Gore (D)+5%
Iowa: Bush (R)+6%
Maine: Bush (R)+5%
Maryland: Gore (D)+9%
Michigan: Gore (D)+0%
Minnesota: Bush (R)+2%
Missouri: Bush (R)+4%
New Hampshire: Bush (R)+3%
New Mexico: Bush (R)+3%
Ohio: Bush (R)+5%
Oregon: Bush (R)+2%
Pennsylvania: Gore (D)+0%
Tennessee: Bush (R)+4%
Washington: Gore (D)+1%
West Virginia: Bush (R)+2%
Wisconsin: Bush (R)+8%
National average: Bush (R)+9.4% (Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html)

NATIONAL FORECAST (Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html)

[Mr.Phips]

God RCP was even more hackish then than now. 

Based on the polling i have seen, I would have said that Gore wins the EC 276-262.  Gore picks up FL, but loses OR/WI/NM.

[Mr. Smith]

Bush wins by more.

[TML]

If the polling average from 2000 were calculated (retroactively) using 538’s model, the result would have given Bush a 3.5 point lead nationwide. A uniform swing nationwide would have given Bush IA, ME-02, MN, NM, OR, and WI, thereby giving him 312 electoral votes to Gore’s 226.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Something like this. I doubt I would've believed that Bush Jr. could outperform his dad.

[Agonized-Statism]

I'd think it'd be Bush's race to lose given my views on the party systems theory (Republicans being the "default party" since Reagan) and clearer dissatisfaction with Gore and the incumbent administration from Democrats than Republicans had for Bush, whose folksy personality, faith, and "compassionate conservative" appeals to moderation I'd expect to have a Jimmy Carter-esque appeal. I'd also expect a bigger reaction to the "Clinton Recession" that the dot-com crash fell short of becoming in the US. Nevertheless, a closer race than people were accustomed to at the time.